Hellas Verona 0-1 Como – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Como (61%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Hellas Verona face Como.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Hellas Verona host Como at Stadio Marcantonio Bentegodi in Serie A, Regular Season - 36. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 10 May 2026 at 11:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Hellas Verona stand at 1W 2D 7L from 10 Serie A matches — 0.50 PPG. Last five: L L L D D. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Hellas Verona's form when playing at home: 0W 2D 8L across 10 games at Stadio Marcantonio Bentegodi this term (0.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.40 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Across all Serie A games this season, Como have recorded 6W 2D 2L from 10 outings — 2.00 PPG. Last five: D L L W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
When travelling in Serie A this season, Como have posted 6W 2D 2L from 10 away outings — 2.00 PPG. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Como are 1.50 PPG ahead (2.00 vs 0.50), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
On the goals front, neither side scores or concedes freely enough to make BTTS Yes the call. Hellas Verona's 30% rate and Como's 30% (using home/away splits) both sit well below average — BTTS No is the form-backed angle.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, Hellas Verona have won 0, Como 2, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 3 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.7 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 29 Oct 2025, ended 1–3 with Como winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.7 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Hellas Verona in-play tendencies (73 games, 36 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games); they fail to score in 48% of games.
Como in-play tendencies (73 games, 36 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hellas Verona 45% versus Como 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hellas Verona 51% | Como 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hellas Verona 0.56 xG and Como 1.53 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hellas Verona attack 0.614 / defence 1.162 | Como attack 1.191 / defence 0.735. League average goals — home 1.232 / away 1.110. Hellas Verona's attack strength of 0.614 is below the league average — the 0.56 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Como's defence strength of 0.735 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 73 Hellas Verona games / 73 Como games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hellas Verona 13% | Draw 26% | Como 61%. Fair-value odds: Hellas Verona 7.69 | Draw 3.85 | Como 1.64. The model has a clear lean to Como (61%) — a 48pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 34% | Total xG 2.09. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.09 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 66% — Hellas Verona's lower xG of 0.56 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 34%.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Como are the pick at 61% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.09 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 35% probability — marginal — conflicting signals conviction, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 3.7 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 34%. Form rates corroborate: Hellas Verona 30% | Como 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hellas Verona vs Como | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 36 | Venue: Stadio Marcantonio Bentegodi • Kick-off: Sunday 10 May 2026, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hellas Verona 13% | Draw 26% | Como 61% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 34% | xG Hellas Verona 0.56 / Como 1.53 • Poisson strength factors: Hellas Verona attack 0.614 / def 1.162 | Como attack 1.191 / def 0.735 | league avg home 1.232 / away 1.110 • Poisson stance: Como (61%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.56
Hellas Verona xG
Expected Goals
1.53
Como xG
34%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hellas Verona vs Como kick off?
Hellas Verona vs Como kicked off at 11:30 on Sunday 10 May 2026 at Stadio Marcantonio Bentegodi.
What was the final score in Hellas Verona vs Como?
Hellas Verona 0 - 1 Como.
Where is Hellas Verona vs Como being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Marcantonio Bentegodi.
What competition is Hellas Verona vs Como part of?
Hellas Verona vs Como is a Regular Season - 36 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Hellas Verona vs Como?
Our statistical model gives Hellas Verona a 13% chance of winning, Como a 61% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Como the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hellas Verona vs Como?
Our model estimates a 34% probability that both Hellas Verona and Como will score (BTTS).
Will Hellas Verona vs Como have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hellas Verona and Como?
Record (3 meetings): Hellas Verona 0W | Draws 1 | Como 2W.
What form are Hellas Verona and Como in?
Hellas Verona (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-L-D-D. Como (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-L-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Hellas Verona's attacking strength (0.61x league average) is weighed against Como's defensive record (0.73x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.56. The same calculation in reverse, Como's attack versus Hellas Verona's defence, projects 1.53 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 73/73 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-1, at 17.6%. Close behind: 0-2 (14.6%), 0-0 (13.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 46% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Como Win
13%
7.72
26%
3.84
61%
1.64
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
19.0%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
14.6%
Away win
0 – 0
12.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.56
Hellas Verona xG
Total xG
2.09
1.53
Como xG
7.72
13%
Home win
3.84
26%
Draw
1.64
61%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
34%
BTTS Yes
2.96
66%
BTTS No
1.51
Clean Sheet
22%
4.64
57%
1.74
Win to Nil
3%
35.81
35%
2.86
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.4 | 19.0 | 14.6 | 7.4 | 2.9 | 0.9 |
| 1 | 6.9 | 10.5 | 8.1 | 4.1 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 1.9 | 2.9 | 2.3 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hellas Verona vs Como?
Our Poisson model rates 0-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.6%.
How many goals are Hellas Verona and Como expected to score?
The model projects 0.56 expected goals for Hellas Verona and 1.53 for Como, a combined total of 2.09.
How confident is the prediction model for Hellas Verona vs Como?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 61%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Hellas Verona come into this having played 73 games, going 13W 18D 42L for 0.78 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-D-D.
On the other side, Como sit at 1.52 PPG from 73 outings (30W 21D 22L), a run that reads D-L-L-W-D across their last five.
Como carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.74 PPG clear of Hellas Verona — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Hellas Verona's home form reads 5W 10D 21L across 36 games on their own ground, a 0.69 PPG return.
Away from home, Como have taken 1.36 points per game from 36 outings (13W 10D 13L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Como come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Hellas Verona are averaging 0.79 goals scored and 1.68 conceded per game recently; Como are on 1.48 scored and 1.10 conceded.
Last 73 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hellas Verona
Current Season
Como
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hellas Verona and Como in coming into this match?
Hellas Verona have gone 13W 18D 42L in their last 73 games (0.78 PPG), while Como have gone 30W 21D 22L in their last 73 (1.52 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hellas Verona at home or Como away?
Como's away record (1.36 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hellas Verona at home: 0.69 PPG; Como away: 1.36 PPG.
Have Hellas Verona or Como been keeping clean sheets recently?
Hellas Verona have kept a clean sheet in 19% of their recent games, Como in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 10 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Como go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Hellas Verona's record when hosting Como specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Hellas Verona
1
Draws
3
Como
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hellas Verona and Como?
From 4 meetings on record, Hellas Verona have won 0, Como have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Hellas Verona and Como last play each other?
They last met on 10 May 2026, when Hellas Verona 0-1 Como.
Who has won more matches between Hellas Verona and Como?
Como have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Hellas Verona are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
Como are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hellas Verona 42%, Como 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Hellas Verona) and 44% (Como).
On the defensive side: Como in 31%; Hellas Verona have failed to score in 53% of games; Como in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hellas Verona home games / Como away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hellas Verona play Como?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Hellas Verona's recent matches and 44% of Como's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Hellas Verona vs Como usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 53% of Hellas Verona's recent games and 44% of Como's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Hellas Verona and Como tend to score early?
Hellas Verona have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Como in 72% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Como edge out Hellas Verona 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Como beat Hellas Verona 0-1 at Stadio Marcantonio Bentegodi, Regular Season - 36, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hellas Verona 0.56 xG and Como 1.53 xG, a combined 2.09. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hellas Verona attack 0.61 / defence 1.16 against Como attack 1.19 / defence 0.73, drawn from 73/73 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hellas Verona 13% | Draw 26% | Como 61%, with Como to win its most likely call at 61%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 62% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 34% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hellas Verona 51%, Como 45%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hellas Verona's trading profile (73 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 48% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Como's trading profile (73 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Como arrived the stronger side — 1.52 PPG against 0.78. Form held, and they took the win. Como (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.08 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.