Hellas Verona 2-1 Bologna – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Bologna at 38% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Hellas Verona vs Bologna encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Bologna make the trip to Stadio Marc'Antonio Bentegodi to face Hellas Verona in Serie A, Regular Season - 31. The match kicks off on Friday 21 April 2023 at 19:45 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Hellas Verona have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 2W 4D 4L. Last five: D L L W D. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Hellas Verona's form when playing at home: 4W 2D 4L across 10 games at Stadio Marc'Antonio Bentegodi this term (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Bologna (all games): 5W 3D 2L across 10 Serie A outings this term — 1.80 points per game. Last five: D D W W D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 0.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
When travelling in Serie A this season, Bologna have posted 5W 1D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.60 PPG. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Bologna are 0.80 PPG clear of Hellas Verona in recent Serie A fixtures (1.80 vs 1.00). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Hellas Verona lead 1W to 1W over the last 3 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 21 Aug 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Hellas Verona goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (68 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games).
Bologna goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (68 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hellas Verona 66% versus Bologna 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hellas Verona 53% | Bologna 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hellas Verona 1.23 xG and Bologna 1.29 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hellas Verona attack 0.966 / defence 1.020 | Bologna attack 1.103 / defence 1.044. League average goals — home 1.217 / away 1.150. Data: 68 Hellas Verona games / 68 Bologna games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hellas Verona 35% | Draw 27% | Bologna 38%. Fair-value odds: Hellas Verona 2.86 | Draw 3.70 | Bologna 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.52. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.52 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Bologna at 38% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Bologna if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.52 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 46% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Hellas Verona 50% | Bologna 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hellas Verona vs Bologna | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 31 | Venue: Stadio Marc'Antonio Bentegodi • Kick-off: Friday 21 Apr 2023, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hellas Verona 35% | Draw 27% | Bologna 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 51% | xG Hellas Verona 1.23 / Bologna 1.29 • Poisson strength factors: Hellas Verona attack 0.966 / def 1.020 | Bologna attack 1.103 / def 1.044 | league avg home 1.217 / away 1.150 • Poisson stance: Bologna (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.23
Hellas Verona xG
Expected Goals
1.29
Bologna xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hellas Verona vs Bologna kick off?
Hellas Verona vs Bologna kicked off at 19:45 on Friday 21 April 2023 at Stadio Marc'Antonio Bentegodi.
What was the final score in Hellas Verona vs Bologna?
Hellas Verona 2 - 1 Bologna.
Where is Hellas Verona vs Bologna being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Marc'Antonio Bentegodi.
What competition is Hellas Verona vs Bologna part of?
Hellas Verona vs Bologna is a Regular Season - 31 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Hellas Verona vs Bologna?
Our statistical model gives Hellas Verona a 35% chance of winning, Bologna a 38% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Bologna the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hellas Verona vs Bologna?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Hellas Verona and Bologna will score (BTTS).
Will Hellas Verona vs Bologna have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hellas Verona and Bologna?
Record (3 meetings): Hellas Verona 1W | Draws 1 | Bologna 1W.
What form are Hellas Verona and Bologna in?
Hellas Verona (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-L-L-W-D. Bologna (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.70 | L5 D-D-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Hellas Verona's attack at 0.97x the league average against Bologna's defence at 1.04x — combine the two and it projects 1.23 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Bologna's attack (1.10x) against Hellas Verona's defence (1.02x) — and the away total comes out at 1.29.
These ratings are built from 68/68 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (9.7%), 0-1 (8.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bologna Win
35%
2.86
27%
3.72
38%
2.62
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.4%
Away win
1 – 0
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.23
Hellas Verona xG
Total xG
2.52
1.29
Bologna xG
2.86
35%
Home win
3.72
27%
Draw
2.62
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.95
49%
BTTS No
2.05
Clean Sheet
27%
3.64
29%
3.41
Win to Nil
10%
10.41
11%
8.94
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.0 | 10.4 | 6.7 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.9 | 12.8 | 8.3 | 3.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 7.8 | 5.1 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 3.2 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hellas Verona vs Bologna?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Hellas Verona and Bologna expected to score?
The model projects 1.23 expected goals for Hellas Verona and 1.29 for Bologna, a combined total of 2.52.
How confident is the prediction model for Hellas Verona vs Bologna?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Hellas Verona's recent record stands at 19W 19D 30L from 68 games, a 1.12 PPG return, with D-L-L-W-D in the last five.
Bologna, meanwhile, have gone 24W 18D 26L across 68 games — 1.32 PPG, with D-D-W-W-D in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.12 PPG for Hellas Verona against 1.32 for Bologna. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Hellas Verona have managed 14W 5D 14L from 33 games — 1.42 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Bologna's away record stands at 9W 8D 16L across 33 trips, a 1.06 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Hellas Verona are averaging 1.31 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Bologna are on 1.22 scored and 1.35 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Hellas Verona have seen both teams score in 66% of their recent games.
Last 68 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hellas Verona
Current Season
Bologna
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hellas Verona and Bologna in coming into this match?
Hellas Verona have gone 19W 19D 30L in their last 68 games (1.12 PPG), while Bologna have gone 24W 18D 26L in their last 68 (1.32 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hellas Verona at home or Bologna away?
Hellas Verona's home record (1.42 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hellas Verona at home: 1.42 PPG; Bologna away: 1.06 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 8 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Hellas Verona have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Bologna — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Hellas Verona
2
Draws
4
Bologna
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hellas Verona and Bologna?
From 10 meetings on record, Hellas Verona have won 4, Bologna have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Hellas Verona and Bologna last play each other?
They last met on 8 March 2026, when Bologna 1-2 Hellas Verona.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Hellas Verona are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Bologna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hellas Verona 67%, Bologna 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 64% for Hellas Verona and 61% for Bologna. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 27% and 21% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Bologna in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hellas Verona home games / Bologna away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hellas Verona play Bologna?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Hellas Verona's games and 58% of Bologna's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Hellas Verona vs Bologna usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 64% of Hellas Verona's matches and 61% of Bologna's.
Do Hellas Verona and Bologna tend to score early?
Hellas Verona have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, Bologna in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Hellas Verona defy the odds to beat Bologna 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hellas Verona beat Bologna 2-1 at Stadio Marc'Antonio Bentegodi, Regular Season - 31, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hellas Verona 1.23 xG and Bologna 1.29 xG, a combined 2.52. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hellas Verona attack 0.97 / defence 1.02 against Bologna attack 1.10 / defence 1.04, drawn from 68/68 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hellas Verona 35% | Draw 27% | Bologna 38%, with Bologna to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Hellas Verona win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hellas Verona 53%, Bologna 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hellas Verona's trading profile (68 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.
Bologna's trading profile (68 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Hellas Verona 1.12 PPG, Bologna 1.32 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Hellas Verona win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.