Genoa vs Udinese – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Udinese at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Genoa vs Udinese fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie A encounter, Regular Season - 16 sees Udinese travel to Stadio Luigi Ferraris to take on Genoa. The game is scheduled for Sunday 20 December 2026, 17:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie A games this season, Genoa have gone 1W 2D 7L from 10 outings — a 0.50 PPG return. Last five: L D L W L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Genoa have played only a handful of Serie A games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Genoa's home record at Stadio Luigi Ferraris: 4W 1D 5L from 10 Serie A appearances (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.50 — Genoa are significantly better at Stadio Luigi Ferraris than their overall form suggests.
Udinese — All Games: 2W 1D 7L from 10 Serie A fixtures this season — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Udinese have played only a handful of Serie A games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Udinese away from home this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 away games — 1.40 PPG on the road. They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Their away PPG of 1.40 exceeds their overall 0.70 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Genoa 0.50 PPG, Udinese 0.70 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
Genoa hold a clear advantage in this fixture, picking up 4 wins from 8 previous encounters compared to 1 for Udinese, with 3 draws in between.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.8 per contest from 8 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 20 Mar 2026, ended 0–2 with Udinese winning.
The historical record gives Genoa a meaningful edge here — 4 wins from 8 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
In-Play Data
Genoa trading profile (45 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
Udinese trading profile (45 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Genoa 53% versus Udinese 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Genoa 51% | Udinese 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Genoa 1.60 xG and Udinese 1.85 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Genoa attack 0.876 / defence 1.203 | Udinese attack 1.240 / defence 1.266. League average goals — home 1.444 / away 1.240. Udinese bring a strong defensive rating of 1.266 — this is suppressing Genoa's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Udinese have an above-average attack strength of 1.240 — the away xG of 1.85 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 45 Genoa games / 44 Udinese games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Genoa 34% | Draw 22% | Udinese 44%. Fair-value odds: Genoa 2.94 | Draw 4.55 | Udinese 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 22% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 67% | BTTS probability 67% | Total xG 3.45. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 67% — a total xG of 3.45 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 67% reflects that both xG figures (1.60 / 1.85) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Udinese are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. With a 22% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Udinese offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.45 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 67% — marginal — conflicting signals confidence, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 67% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Genoa 60% | Udinese 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Genoa vs Udinese | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Stadio Luigi Ferraris • Kick-off: Sunday 20 Dec 2026, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Genoa 34% | Draw 22% | Udinese 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 67% | BTTS 67% | xG Genoa 1.60 / Udinese 1.85 • Poisson strength factors: Genoa attack 0.876 / def 1.203 | Udinese attack 1.240 / def 1.266 | league avg home 1.444 / away 1.240 • Poisson stance: Udinese (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.60
Genoa xG
Expected Goals
1.85
Udinese xG
67%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
67%
Over 2.5
45%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Genoa vs Udinese kick off?
Genoa vs Udinese is scheduled to kick off at 17:30 on Sunday 20 December 2026 at Stadio Luigi Ferraris.
Where is Genoa vs Udinese being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Luigi Ferraris.
What competition is Genoa vs Udinese part of?
Genoa vs Udinese is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Genoa vs Udinese?
Our statistical model gives Genoa a 34% chance of winning, Udinese a 44% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Udinese the favourite.
Will both teams score in Genoa vs Udinese?
Our model estimates a 67% probability that both Genoa and Udinese will score (BTTS).
Will Genoa vs Udinese have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 67%.
What is the head-to-head record between Genoa and Udinese?
Record (8 meetings): Genoa 4W | Draws 3 | Udinese 1W.
What form are Genoa and Udinese in?
Genoa (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-D-L-W-L. Udinese (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Genoa's attacking strength (0.88x league average) is weighed against Udinese's defensive record (1.27x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.60. The same calculation in reverse, Udinese's attack versus Genoa's defence, projects 1.85 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 45/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.6%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.7%), 2-1 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Udinese Win
34%
2.96
22%
4.49
44%
2.27
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.7%
Away win
2 – 1
7.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.60
Genoa xG
Total xG
3.45
1.85
Udinese xG
2.96
34%
Home win
4.49
22%
Draw
2.27
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
67%
Over 2.5
1.49
33%
Under 2.5
3.03
45%
Over 3.5
2.22
55%
Under 3.5
1.82
27%
Over 4.5
3.70
73%
Under 4.5
1.37
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
67%
BTTS Yes
1.49
33%
BTTS No
3.06
Clean Sheet
16%
6.36
20%
4.96
Win to Nil
5%
18.86
9%
11.27
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.2 | 5.9 | 5.4 | 3.3 | 1.5 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 5.1 | 9.4 | 8.7 | 5.4 | 2.5 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 4.1 | 7.5 | 7.0 | 4.3 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 4.0 | 3.7 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Genoa vs Udinese?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.6%.
How many goals are Genoa and Udinese expected to score?
The model projects 1.60 expected goals for Genoa and 1.85 for Udinese, a combined total of 3.45.
How confident is the prediction model for Genoa vs Udinese?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Genoa come into this having played 45 games, going 11W 12D 22L for 1.00 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-L-W-L. It's still early in the season for Genoa, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Udinese sit at 1.20 PPG from 45 outings (15W 9D 21L), a run that reads L-L-L-L-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Udinese, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Genoa on 1.00 PPG, Udinese on 1.20. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Genoa's home form reads 7W 4D 11L across 22 games on their own ground, a 1.14 PPG return.
Away from home, Udinese have taken 1.36 points per game from 22 outings (9W 3D 10L).
Goals in Recent Form
Genoa are averaging 1.02 goals scored and 1.42 conceded per game recently; Udinese are on 1.20 scored and 1.42 conceded.
Last 45 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Genoa
Early Season
Udinese
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Genoa and Udinese in coming into this match?
Genoa have gone 11W 12D 22L in their last 45 games (1.00 PPG), while Udinese have gone 15W 9D 21L in their last 45 (1.20 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Genoa at home or Udinese away?
Udinese's away record (1.36 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Genoa at home: 1.14 PPG; Udinese away: 1.36 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 20 March 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Genoa's record when hosting Udinese specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Genoa
3
Draws
1
Udinese
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Genoa and Udinese?
From 8 meetings on record, Genoa have won 4, Udinese have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Genoa and Udinese last play each other?
They last met on 20 March 2026, when Genoa 0-2 Udinese.
Who has won more matches between Genoa and Udinese?
Genoa have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Genoa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches.
Udinese are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Genoa 54%, Udinese 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 59% (Genoa) and 59% (Udinese). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 18% and 36% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Genoa have failed to score in 36% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Genoa home games / Udinese away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Genoa play Udinese?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 54% of Genoa's games and 59% of Udinese's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Genoa vs Udinese usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 59% of Genoa's matches and 59% of Udinese's.
Do Genoa and Udinese tend to score early?
Genoa have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Udinese in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.