Genoa 1-1 Pisa – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Pisa at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Genoa vs Pisa fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Pisa make the trip to Stadio Luigi Ferraris to face Genoa in Serie A, Regular Season - 18. The match kicks off on Saturday 3 January 2026 at 14:00 UTC.
Form
Genoa (all games): 3W 2D 5L across 10 Serie A fixtures this term — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W W L L L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Genoa, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Genoa's form when playing at home: 1W 3D 6L across 10 games at Stadio Luigi Ferraris this term (0.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.60 lags behind their overall 1.10 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Stadio Luigi Ferraris this season.
Pisa's overall Serie A record this term: 1W 5D 4L from 10 games (0.80 PPG). Last five: L L L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Pisa, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Pisa have gone 1W 5D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.10 for Genoa, 0.80 for Pisa — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: Genoa 1W, Pisa 0W, 1D.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 0.5 per game from 2 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 28 Jan 2023, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Genoa goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (55 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 52% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
Pisa goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (55 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Genoa 53% versus Pisa 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Genoa 47% | Pisa 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Genoa 1.33 xG and Pisa 1.34 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Genoa attack 0.766 / defence 1.195 | Pisa attack 1.016 / defence 1.438. League average goals — home 1.210 / away 1.102. Genoa's attack strength of 0.766 is below the league average — the 1.33 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Pisa bring a strong defensive rating of 1.438 — this is suppressing Genoa's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 55 Genoa games / 17 Pisa games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Genoa 37% | Draw 26% | Pisa 37%. Fair-value odds: Genoa 2.70 | Draw 3.85 | Pisa 2.70. The draw (26%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.67. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.67 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 26% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 37% and away win at 37% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
Poisson projects 2.67 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 50% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Genoa 40% | Pisa 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Genoa vs Pisa | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Stadio Luigi Ferraris • Kick-off: Saturday 3 Jan 2026, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Genoa 37% | Draw 26% | Pisa 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 54% | xG Genoa 1.33 / Pisa 1.34 • Poisson strength factors: Genoa attack 0.766 / def 1.195 | Pisa attack 1.016 / def 1.438 | league avg home 1.210 / away 1.102 • Poisson stance: Draw (26%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.33
Genoa xG
Expected Goals
1.34
Pisa xG
54%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Genoa vs Pisa kick off?
Genoa vs Pisa kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 3 January 2026 at Stadio Luigi Ferraris.
What was the final score in Genoa vs Pisa?
Genoa 1 - 1 Pisa.
Where is Genoa vs Pisa being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Luigi Ferraris.
What competition is Genoa vs Pisa part of?
Genoa vs Pisa is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Genoa vs Pisa?
Our statistical model gives Genoa a 37% chance of winning, Pisa a 37% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Genoa vs Pisa?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Genoa and Pisa will score (BTTS).
Will Genoa vs Pisa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Genoa and Pisa?
Record (2 meetings): Genoa 1W | Draws 1 | Pisa 0W.
What form are Genoa and Pisa in?
Genoa (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-W-L-L-L. Pisa (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Genoa's attack rating (0.77) and Pisa's defence rating (1.44), the model arrives at 1.33 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Pisa's attack (1.02x) against Genoa's defence (1.20x) — and the away total comes out at 1.34.
These ratings are built from 55/17 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (8.5%), 1-2 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Pisa Win
37%
2.71
26%
3.85
37%
2.69
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.3%
Away win
1 – 0
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.33
Genoa xG
Total xG
2.67
1.34
Pisa xG
2.71
37%
Home win
3.85
26%
Draw
2.69
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.84
46%
BTTS No
2.19
Clean Sheet
26%
3.81
26%
3.79
Win to Nil
10%
10.33
10%
10.21
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.9 | 9.3 | 6.2 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.2 | 12.3 | 8.3 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 8.2 | 5.5 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 3.7 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Genoa vs Pisa?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Genoa and Pisa expected to score?
The model projects 1.33 expected goals for Genoa and 1.34 for Pisa, a combined total of 2.67.
How confident is the prediction model for Genoa vs Pisa?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Genoa come into this having played 55 games, going 13W 18D 24L for 1.04 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-L-L. The sample for Genoa is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Pisa sit at 1.55 PPG from 55 outings (23W 16D 16L), a run that reads L-L-L-D-L across their last five. The sample for Pisa is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Pisa carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.51 PPG clear of Genoa — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Genoa's home form reads 6W 9D 12L across 27 games on their own ground, a 1.00 PPG return.
Away from home, Pisa have taken 1.33 points per game from 27 outings (9W 9D 9L).
Attack vs Defence
Genoa are averaging 0.98 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game recently; Pisa are on 1.35 scored and 1.11 conceded.
Last 55 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Genoa
Blended
Pisa
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Genoa and Pisa in coming into this match?
Genoa have gone 13W 18D 24L in their last 55 games (1.04 PPG), while Pisa have gone 23W 16D 16L in their last 55 (1.55 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Genoa at home or Pisa away?
Pisa's away record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Genoa at home: 1.00 PPG; Pisa away: 1.33 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Serie B, Serie A all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 19 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Genoa have gone 0W 2D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Pisa — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Genoa
2
Draws
0
Pisa
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Genoa and Pisa?
From 4 meetings on record, Genoa have won 2, Pisa have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Genoa and Pisa last play each other?
They last met on 19 April 2026, when Pisa 1-2 Genoa.
Who has won more matches between Genoa and Pisa?
Genoa have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Genoa see a goal before the break in 52% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Pisa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Genoa 44%, Pisa 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 41% (Genoa) and 52% (Pisa).
On the defensive side: Genoa have failed to score in 41% of games; Pisa in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Genoa home games / Pisa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Genoa play Pisa?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Genoa's recent matches and 56% of Pisa's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Genoa vs Pisa usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 41% of Genoa's recent games and 52% of Pisa's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Genoa and Pisa tend to score early?
Genoa have had a goal before half-time in 52% of their recent matches, Pisa in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Genoa and Pisa share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadio Luigi Ferraris, Regular Season - 18, as Genoa and Pisa drew 1-1 in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Genoa 1.33 xG and Pisa 1.34 xG, a combined 2.67. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Genoa attack 0.77 / defence 1.20 against Pisa attack 1.02 / defence 1.44, drawn from 55/17 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Genoa 37% | Draw 26% | Pisa 37%, with Genoa to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Genoa 47%, Pisa 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Genoa's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Pisa's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Pisa arrived the stronger side — 1.55 PPG against 1.04. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.