Genoa 0-0 Inter – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Inter at 61% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Genoa vs Inter encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Inter make the trip to Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris to face Genoa in Serie A, Regular Season - 27. The match kicks off on Friday 25 February 2022 at 20:05 UTC.
Current Form
Genoa's overall Serie A record this term: 0W 6D 4L from 10 games (0.60 PPG). Last five: L D D D D. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Genoa, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Genoa have posted 0W 6D 4L at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris — 0.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Inter have collected 2.00 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 6W 2D 2L. Last five: D W L D L. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 0.70. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Inter, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Inter's form when playing away from home: 6W 3D 1L across 10 road games this term (2.10 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
Inter arrive in superior form — a 1.40 PPG advantage (2.00 vs 0.60) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Genoa lead 0W to 1W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 4.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 21 Aug 2021, ended 0–4 with Inter winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Genoa — key trading statistics (25 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 44% of games.
Inter — key trading statistics (25 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 92% of fixtures in away games; they lead at the break 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Genoa 56% versus Inter 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Genoa 48% | Inter 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Genoa 0.55 xG and Inter 1.62 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Genoa attack 0.572 / defence 1.122 | Inter attack 1.028 / defence 0.850. League average goals — home 1.126 / away 1.402. Genoa's attack strength of 0.572 is below the league average — the 0.55 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 26 Genoa games / 25 Inter games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Genoa 10% | Draw 29% | Inter 61%. Fair-value odds: Genoa 10.00 | Draw 3.45 | Inter 1.64. The model has a clear lean to Inter (61%) — a 51pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 36% | Total xG 2.17. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.17 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 36% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Inter are the pick at 61% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 29% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.17 combined xG gives a 37% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 36%. Form rates corroborate: Genoa 40% | Inter 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Genoa vs Inter | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris • Kick-off: Friday 25 Feb 2022, 20:05 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Genoa 10% | Draw 29% | Inter 61% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 36% | xG Genoa 0.55 / Inter 1.62 • Poisson strength factors: Genoa attack 0.572 / def 1.122 | Inter attack 1.028 / def 0.850 | league avg home 1.126 / away 1.402 • Poisson stance: Inter (61%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.55
Genoa xG
Expected Goals
1.62
Inter xG
36%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Genoa vs Inter kick off?
Genoa vs Inter kicked off at 20:05 on Friday 25 February 2022 at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris.
What was the final score in Genoa vs Inter?
Genoa 0 - 0 Inter.
Where is Genoa vs Inter being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris.
What competition is Genoa vs Inter part of?
Genoa vs Inter is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Genoa vs Inter?
Our statistical model gives Genoa a 10% chance of winning, Inter a 61% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Inter the favourite.
Will both teams score in Genoa vs Inter?
Our model estimates a 36% probability that both Genoa and Inter will score (BTTS).
Will Genoa vs Inter have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Genoa and Inter?
Record (1 meetings): Genoa 0W | Draws 0 | Inter 1W.
What form are Genoa and Inter in?
Genoa (all comps): 0W-6D-4L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-D-D-D-D. Inter (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 0.70 | L5 D-W-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Genoa's attack at 0.57x the league average against Inter's defence at 0.85x — combine the two and it projects 0.55 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Inter's attack (1.03x) against Genoa's defence (1.12x) — and the away total comes out at 1.62.
These ratings are built from 26/25 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-1 carries the highest individual probability at 17.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-2 (15.0%), 0-0 (12.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 45% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Inter Win
10%
10.13
29%
3.46
61%
1.63
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
18.6%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
15.0%
Away win
0 – 0
11.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.55
Genoa xG
Total xG
2.17
1.62
Inter xG
10.13
10%
Home win
3.46
29%
Draw
1.63
61%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
36%
BTTS Yes
2.76
64%
BTTS No
1.57
Clean Sheet
20%
5.04
58%
1.73
Win to Nil
2%
51.04
35%
2.83
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.5 | 18.6 | 15.0 | 8.1 | 3.3 | 1.1 |
| 1 | 6.3 | 10.2 | 8.2 | 4.4 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 1.7 | 2.8 | 2.3 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Genoa vs Inter?
Our Poisson model rates 0-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.2%.
How many goals are Genoa and Inter expected to score?
The model projects 0.55 expected goals for Genoa and 1.62 for Inter, a combined total of 2.17.
How confident is the prediction model for Genoa vs Inter?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 61%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 25 outings, Genoa have picked up 0.64 PPG on a 1W 13D 11L record — L-D-D-D-D across the most recent five. The sample for Genoa is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Inter's form line: 16W 6D 3L from 25 games, 2.16 PPG, last five D-W-L-D-L. The sample for Inter is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Inter are the form team by 1.52 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Genoa.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Genoa have posted 0.50 PPG from 12 outings (0W 6D 6L).
On the road, Inter have gone 7W 4D 1L from 12 away games — 2.08 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Inter come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Genoa are averaging 0.88 goals scored and 1.72 conceded per game recently; Inter are on 2.20 scored and 0.88 conceded.
Defensively: Inter in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 25 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Genoa
Blended
Inter
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Genoa and Inter in coming into this match?
Genoa have gone 1W 13D 11L in their last 25 games (0.64 PPG), while Inter have gone 16W 6D 3L in their last 25 (2.16 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Genoa at home or Inter away?
Inter's away record (2.08 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Genoa at home: 0.50 PPG; Inter away: 2.08 PPG.
Have Genoa or Inter been keeping clean sheets recently?
Genoa have kept a clean sheet in 20% of their recent games, Inter in 40%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 28 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Inter have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Inter won 4-0 on 21 Aug 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Genoa have gone 0W 3D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Inter — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
0
Genoa
3
Draws
5
Inter
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Genoa and Inter?
From 8 meetings on record, Genoa have won 0, Inter have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Genoa and Inter last play each other?
They last met on 28 February 2026, when Inter 2-0 Genoa.
Who has won more matches between Genoa and Inter?
Inter have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Genoa see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Inter are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 92% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Genoa 50%, Inter 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Genoa) and 58% (Inter).
On the defensive side: Inter in 42%; Genoa have failed to score in 50% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Genoa home games / Inter away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Genoa play Inter?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Genoa's recent matches and 58% of Inter's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Genoa vs Inter usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Genoa's recent games and 58% of Inter's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Genoa and Inter tend to score early?
Genoa have had a goal before half-time in 58% of their recent matches, Inter in 92% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Genoa's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris, Regular Season - 27, as Genoa and Inter drew 0-0 in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Genoa 0.55 xG and Inter 1.62 xG, a combined 2.17. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Inter landed 1.6 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Genoa attack 0.57 / defence 1.12 against Inter attack 1.03 / defence 0.85, drawn from 26/25 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Genoa 10% | Draw 29% | Inter 61%, with Inter to win its most likely call at 61%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 66% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 36% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Genoa 48%, Inter 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Genoa's trading profile (25 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 44% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Inter's trading profile (25 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Inter arrived the stronger side — 2.16 PPG against 0.64. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Genoa (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.58 average — tighter than their form line. Inter (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.08 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.83 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.