Genoa 0-1 Atalanta – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Atalanta at 41% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Genoa vs Atalanta encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Atalanta make the trip to Stadio Luigi Ferraris to face Genoa in Serie A, Regular Season - 16. The match kicks off on Sunday 21 December 2025 at 19:45 UTC.
Current Form
Genoa's overall Serie A record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: D D W W L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Genoa, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Genoa have posted 1W 3D 6L at Stadio Luigi Ferraris — 0.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.60 lags behind their overall 1.20 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Stadio Luigi Ferraris this season.
Atalanta (all games): 2W 4D 4L across 10 Serie A outings this term — 1.00 points per game. Last five: L L W L W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Atalanta, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Atalanta's form when playing away from home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.50 exceeds their overall 1.00 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.20 PPG for Genoa against 1.00 for Atalanta. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
Across the last 6 meetings, Atalanta have the stronger historical record — 4 wins to Genoa's 0, with 2 draws in the mix.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 6 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 17 May 2025, ended 2–3 with Atalanta winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Atalanta have won 4 of 6 previous encounters, and at 3.0 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading & In-Play
Genoa — key trading statistics (53 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
Atalanta — key trading statistics (53 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Genoa 53% versus Atalanta 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Genoa 47% | Atalanta 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Genoa 1.17 xG and Atalanta 1.34 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Genoa attack 0.828 / defence 1.221 | Atalanta attack 0.997 / defence 1.133. League average goals — home 1.249 / away 1.099. Data: 53 Genoa games / 53 Atalanta games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Genoa 33% | Draw 27% | Atalanta 41%. Fair-value odds: Genoa 3.03 | Draw 3.70 | Atalanta 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.51. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.51 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Atalanta at 41% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Atalanta if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.51 combined xG gives a 46% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates corroborate: Genoa 50% | Atalanta 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Genoa vs Atalanta | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Stadio Luigi Ferraris • Kick-off: Sunday 21 Dec 2025, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Genoa 33% | Draw 27% | Atalanta 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 51% | xG Genoa 1.17 / Atalanta 1.34 • Poisson strength factors: Genoa attack 0.828 / def 1.221 | Atalanta attack 0.997 / def 1.133 | league avg home 1.249 / away 1.099 • Poisson stance: Atalanta (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.17
Genoa xG
Expected Goals
1.34
Atalanta xG
51%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Genoa vs Atalanta kick off?
Genoa vs Atalanta kicked off at 19:45 on Sunday 21 December 2025 at Stadio Luigi Ferraris.
What was the final score in Genoa vs Atalanta?
Genoa 0 - 1 Atalanta.
Where is Genoa vs Atalanta being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Luigi Ferraris.
What competition is Genoa vs Atalanta part of?
Genoa vs Atalanta is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Genoa vs Atalanta?
Our statistical model gives Genoa a 33% chance of winning, Atalanta a 41% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Atalanta the favourite.
Will both teams score in Genoa vs Atalanta?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Genoa and Atalanta will score (BTTS).
Will Genoa vs Atalanta have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Genoa and Atalanta?
Record (6 meetings): Genoa 0W | Draws 2 | Atalanta 4W.
What form are Genoa and Atalanta in?
Genoa (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-D-W-W-L. Atalanta (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Genoa's attack at 0.83x the league average against Atalanta's defence at 1.13x — combine the two and it projects 1.17 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Atalanta's attack (1.00x) against Genoa's defence (1.22x) — and the away total comes out at 1.34.
These ratings are built from 53/53 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (9.8%), 0-1 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Atalanta Win
33%
3.07
27%
3.73
41%
2.47
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.9%
Away win
1 – 0
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.17
Genoa xG
Total xG
2.51
1.34
Atalanta xG
3.07
33%
Home win
3.73
27%
Draw
2.47
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.96
49%
BTTS No
2.04
Clean Sheet
26%
3.81
31%
3.23
Win to Nil
9%
11.68
13%
7.96
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.1 | 10.9 | 7.3 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.5 | 12.7 | 8.5 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 7.5 | 5.0 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 2.9 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Genoa vs Atalanta?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Genoa and Atalanta expected to score?
The model projects 1.17 expected goals for Genoa and 1.34 for Atalanta, a combined total of 2.51.
How confident is the prediction model for Genoa vs Atalanta?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 53 outings, Genoa have picked up 1.08 PPG on a 13W 18D 22L record — D-D-W-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Genoa is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Atalanta's form line: 26W 15D 12L from 53 games, 1.75 PPG, last five L-L-W-L-W. The sample for Atalanta is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Atalanta are the form team by 0.67 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Genoa.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Genoa have posted 1.04 PPG from 26 outings (6W 9D 11L).
On the road, Atalanta have gone 14W 6D 6L from 26 away games — 1.85 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Atalanta come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Genoa are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.36 conceded per game recently; Atalanta are on 1.83 scored and 1.04 conceded.
Last 53 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Genoa
Blended
Atalanta
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Genoa and Atalanta in coming into this match?
Genoa have gone 13W 18D 22L in their last 53 games (1.08 PPG), while Atalanta have gone 26W 15D 12L in their last 53 (1.75 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Genoa at home or Atalanta away?
Atalanta's away record (1.85 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Genoa at home: 1.04 PPG; Atalanta away: 1.85 PPG.
Have Genoa or Atalanta been keeping clean sheets recently?
Genoa have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, Atalanta in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since December 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 2 May 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Atalanta won 5-1 on 5 Oct 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Genoa have gone 0W 1D 3L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Atalanta — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
0
Genoa
3
Draws
5
Atalanta
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Genoa and Atalanta?
From 8 meetings on record, Genoa have won 0, Atalanta have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Genoa and Atalanta last play each other?
They last met on 2 May 2026, when Atalanta 0-0 Genoa.
Who has won more matches between Genoa and Atalanta?
Atalanta have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Genoa see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Atalanta are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Genoa 46%, Atalanta 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Genoa) and 54% (Atalanta).
On the defensive side: Atalanta in 46%; Genoa have failed to score in 38% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Genoa home games / Atalanta away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Genoa play Atalanta?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Genoa's recent matches and 42% of Atalanta's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Genoa vs Atalanta usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Genoa's recent games and 54% of Atalanta's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Genoa and Atalanta tend to score early?
Genoa have had a goal before half-time in 54% of their recent matches, Atalanta in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Atalanta edge out Genoa 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Atalanta beat Genoa 0-1 at Stadio Luigi Ferraris, Regular Season - 16, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Genoa 1.17 xG and Atalanta 1.34 xG, a combined 2.51. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Genoa fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Genoa attack 0.83 / defence 1.22 against Atalanta attack 1.00 / defence 1.13, drawn from 53/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Genoa 33% | Draw 27% | Atalanta 41%, with Atalanta to win its most likely call at 41%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 71% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Genoa 47%, Atalanta 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Genoa's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Atalanta's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Atalanta arrived the stronger side — 1.75 PPG against 1.08. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Genoa (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.92 scoring average — below par going forward. Atalanta (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.92 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.88 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.