Genoa 1-2 AC Milan – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates AC Milan at 40% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Genoa vs AC Milan encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadio Luigi Ferraris plays host to Genoa versus AC Milan in Serie A, Regular Season - 37. Kick-off: Sunday 17 May 2026 at 11:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Genoa have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: W W L D D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Genoa's home record at Stadio Luigi Ferraris: 5W 1D 4L from 10 Serie A appearances (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
AC Milan (all games): 4W 1D 5L across 10 Serie A outings this term — 1.30 points per game. Last five: L W D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.
When travelling in Serie A this season, AC Milan have posted 5W 2D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.70 PPG. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.40 for Genoa, 1.30 for AC Milan — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
AC Milan hold the superior head-to-head record in this fixture, claiming 4 wins from 7 meetings. The hosts have won just 0 times in that span.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 8 Jan 2026, ended 1–1 with a draw.
It is worth noting that AC Milan have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 4 wins from 7 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading Data
Genoa goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (74 games, 37 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 49% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 49% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
AC Milan goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (74 games, 37 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Genoa 50% versus AC Milan 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Genoa 46% | AC Milan 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Genoa 1.04 xG and AC Milan 1.23 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Genoa attack 1.024 / defence 1.115 | AC Milan attack 0.976 / defence 0.811. League average goals — home 1.248 / away 1.131. Data: 74 Genoa games / 74 AC Milan games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Genoa 31% | Draw 29% | AC Milan 40%. Fair-value odds: Genoa 3.23 | Draw 3.45 | AC Milan 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.27. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.27 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates AC Milan as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on AC Milan if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.27 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 40% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 46% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Genoa 50% | AC Milan 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Genoa vs AC Milan | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 37 | Venue: Stadio Luigi Ferraris • Kick-off: Sunday 17 May 2026, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Genoa 31% | Draw 29% | AC Milan 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 46% | xG Genoa 1.04 / AC Milan 1.23 • Poisson strength factors: Genoa attack 1.024 / def 1.115 | AC Milan attack 0.976 / def 0.811 | league avg home 1.248 / away 1.131 • Poisson stance: AC Milan (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.04
Genoa xG
Expected Goals
1.23
AC Milan xG
46%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Genoa vs AC Milan kick off?
Genoa vs AC Milan kicked off at 11:00 on Sunday 17 May 2026 at Stadio Luigi Ferraris.
What was the final score in Genoa vs AC Milan?
Genoa 1 - 2 AC Milan.
Where is Genoa vs AC Milan being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Luigi Ferraris.
What competition is Genoa vs AC Milan part of?
Genoa vs AC Milan is a Regular Season - 37 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Genoa vs AC Milan?
Our statistical model gives Genoa a 31% chance of winning, AC Milan a 40% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making AC Milan the favourite.
Will both teams score in Genoa vs AC Milan?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Genoa and AC Milan will score (BTTS).
Will Genoa vs AC Milan have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Genoa and AC Milan?
Record (7 meetings): Genoa 0W | Draws 3 | AC Milan 4W.
What form are Genoa and AC Milan in?
Genoa (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-L-D-D. AC Milan (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Genoa's attack rating (1.02) and AC Milan's defence rating (0.81), the model arrives at 1.04 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — AC Milan's attack (0.98x) against Genoa's defence (1.11x) — and the away total comes out at 1.23.
These ratings are built from 74/74 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.1%), 0-1 (11.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
AC Milan Win
31%
3.26
29%
3.44
40%
2.48
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.7%
Away win
1 – 0
10.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.04
Genoa xG
Total xG
2.27
1.23
AC Milan xG
3.26
31%
Home win
3.44
29%
Draw
2.48
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.17
54%
BTTS No
1.85
Clean Sheet
29%
3.42
35%
2.82
Win to Nil
9%
11.16
14%
7.01
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.4 | 12.7 | 7.8 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.7 | 13.2 | 8.1 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 6.9 | 4.2 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 2.4 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Genoa vs AC Milan?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Genoa and AC Milan expected to score?
The model projects 1.04 expected goals for Genoa and 1.23 for AC Milan, a combined total of 2.27.
How confident is the prediction model for Genoa vs AC Milan?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Genoa come into this having played 74 games, going 20W 24D 30L for 1.14 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-D-D.
On the other side, AC Milan sit at 1.76 PPG from 74 outings (37W 19D 18L), a run that reads L-W-D-L-L across their last five.
AC Milan carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.62 PPG clear of Genoa — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Genoa's home form reads 11W 11D 15L across 37 games on their own ground, a 1.19 PPG return.
Away from home, AC Milan have taken 1.73 points per game from 37 outings (19W 7D 11L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, AC Milan come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Genoa are averaging 1.04 goals scored and 1.31 conceded per game recently; AC Milan are on 1.50 scored and 1.01 conceded.
Defensively: AC Milan in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 74 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Genoa
Current Season
AC Milan
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Genoa and AC Milan in coming into this match?
Genoa have gone 20W 24D 30L in their last 74 games (1.14 PPG), while AC Milan have gone 37W 19D 18L in their last 74 (1.76 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Genoa at home or AC Milan away?
AC Milan's away record (1.73 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Genoa at home: 1.19 PPG; AC Milan away: 1.73 PPG.
Have Genoa or AC Milan been keeping clean sheets recently?
Genoa have kept a clean sheet in 27% of their recent games, AC Milan in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 17 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: AC Milan won 0-3 on 1 Dec 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Genoa have gone 0W 0D 4L from 4 meetings on their own ground against AC Milan — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
0
Genoa
3
Draws
5
AC Milan
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Genoa and AC Milan?
From 8 meetings on record, Genoa have won 0, AC Milan have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Genoa and AC Milan last play each other?
They last met on 17 May 2026, when Genoa 1-2 AC Milan.
Who has won more matches between Genoa and AC Milan?
AC Milan have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Genoa see a goal before the break in 60% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
AC Milan are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Genoa 49%, AC Milan 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 49% (Genoa) and 54% (AC Milan).
On the defensive side: AC Milan in 35%; Genoa have failed to score in 35% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Genoa home games / AC Milan away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Genoa play AC Milan?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 49% of Genoa's recent matches and 54% of AC Milan's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Genoa vs AC Milan usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 49% of Genoa's recent games and 54% of AC Milan's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Genoa and AC Milan tend to score early?
Genoa have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, AC Milan in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as AC Milan edge out Genoa 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
AC Milan beat Genoa 1-2 at Stadio Luigi Ferraris, Regular Season - 37, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Genoa 1.04 xG and AC Milan 1.23 xG, a combined 2.27. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Genoa attack 1.02 / defence 1.11 against AC Milan attack 0.98 / defence 0.81, drawn from 74/74 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Genoa 31% | Draw 29% | AC Milan 40%, with AC Milan to win its most likely call at 40%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Genoa 46%, AC Milan 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Genoa's trading profile (74 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
AC Milan's trading profile (74 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, AC Milan arrived the stronger side — 1.76 PPG against 1.14. Form held, and they took the win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.