Frosinone 0-1 Udinese – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Udinese at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Frosinone vs Udinese fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadio Benito Stirpe plays host to Frosinone versus Udinese in Serie A, Regular Season - 38. Kick-off: Sunday 26 May 2024 at 19:45 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Frosinone have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 2W 5D 3L. Last five: D W D L W. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
At home at Stadio Benito Stirpe, Frosinone have gone 2W 2D 6L this season (10 games, 0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Udinese's overall Serie A record this term: 2W 4D 4L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: L D D W D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Udinese's form when playing away from home: 3W 4D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.10 PPG for Frosinone against 1.00 for Udinese. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Frosinone lead 0W to 0W over the last 1 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 1 previous contests averaged 0.0 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 2 Sep 2023, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Frosinone half-time and goal-timing data (75 games, 37 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 55% of the time; BTTS occurs in 49% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games).
Udinese half-time and goal-timing data (75 games, 37 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Frosinone 52% versus Udinese 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Frosinone 53% | Udinese 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Frosinone 1.13 xG and Udinese 1.48 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Frosinone attack 0.924 / defence 1.373 | Udinese attack 0.891 / defence 0.895. League average goals — home 1.361 / away 1.210. Data: 37 Frosinone games / 75 Udinese games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Frosinone 28% | Draw 28% | Udinese 44%. Fair-value odds: Frosinone 3.57 | Draw 3.57 | Udinese 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.61. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.61 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Udinese at 44% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Udinese if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.61 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 48% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Frosinone 60% | Udinese 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Frosinone vs Udinese | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 38 | Venue: Stadio Benito Stirpe • Kick-off: Sunday 26 May 2024, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Frosinone 28% | Draw 28% | Udinese 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 53% | xG Frosinone 1.13 / Udinese 1.48 • Poisson strength factors: Frosinone attack 0.924 / def 1.373 | Udinese attack 0.891 / def 0.895 | league avg home 1.361 / away 1.210 • Poisson stance: Udinese (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.13
Frosinone xG
Expected Goals
1.48
Udinese xG
53%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Frosinone vs Udinese kick off?
Frosinone vs Udinese kicked off at 19:45 on Sunday 26 May 2024 at Stadio Benito Stirpe.
What was the final score in Frosinone vs Udinese?
Frosinone 0 - 1 Udinese.
Where is Frosinone vs Udinese being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Benito Stirpe.
What competition is Frosinone vs Udinese part of?
Frosinone vs Udinese is a Regular Season - 38 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Frosinone vs Udinese?
Our statistical model gives Frosinone a 28% chance of winning, Udinese a 44% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Udinese the favourite.
Will both teams score in Frosinone vs Udinese?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Frosinone and Udinese will score (BTTS).
Will Frosinone vs Udinese have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Frosinone and Udinese?
Record (1 meetings): Frosinone 0W | Draws 1 | Udinese 0W.
What form are Frosinone and Udinese in?
Frosinone (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-W-D-L-W. Udinese (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-D-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Frosinone's attack rating (0.92) and Udinese's defence rating (0.90), the model arrives at 1.13 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Udinese's attack (0.89x) against Frosinone's defence (1.37x) — and the away total comes out at 1.48.
These ratings are built from 37/75 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.9%. Close behind: 0-1 (9.3%), 1-2 (9.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Udinese Win
28%
3.62
28%
3.55
44%
2.26
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.9%
Away win
1 – 2
9.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.13
Frosinone xG
Total xG
2.61
1.48
Udinese xG
3.62
28%
Home win
3.55
28%
Draw
2.26
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.87
47%
BTTS No
2.14
Clean Sheet
23%
4.40
32%
3.08
Win to Nil
6%
15.91
14%
6.98
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.4 | 10.9 | 8.1 | 4.0 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.3 | 12.3 | 9.1 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.7 | 6.9 | 5.1 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 2.6 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Frosinone vs Udinese?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Frosinone and Udinese expected to score?
The model projects 1.13 expected goals for Frosinone and 1.48 for Udinese, a combined total of 2.61.
How confident is the prediction model for Frosinone vs Udinese?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 75 outings, Frosinone have picked up 1.53 PPG on a 32W 19D 24L record — D-W-D-L-W across the most recent five.
Udinese's form line: 16W 32D 27L from 75 games, 1.07 PPG, last five L-D-D-W-D.
Put side by side, Frosinone are the form team by 0.46 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Udinese.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Frosinone have posted 1.89 PPG from 37 outings (21W 7D 9L).
On the road, Udinese have gone 9W 12D 16L from 37 away games — 1.05 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Frosinone come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Frosinone are averaging 1.43 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game recently; Udinese are on 1.11 scored and 1.35 conceded.
Defensively: Frosinone have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 75 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Frosinone
Current Season
Udinese
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Frosinone and Udinese in coming into this match?
Frosinone have gone 32W 19D 24L in their last 75 games (1.53 PPG), while Udinese have gone 16W 32D 27L in their last 75 (1.07 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Frosinone at home or Udinese away?
Frosinone's home record (1.89 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Frosinone at home: 1.89 PPG; Udinese away: 1.05 PPG.
Have Frosinone or Udinese been keeping clean sheets recently?
Frosinone have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Udinese in 24%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since September 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 26 May 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Frosinone
1
Draws
1
Udinese
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Frosinone and Udinese?
From 2 meetings on record, Frosinone have won 0, Udinese have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Frosinone and Udinese last play each other?
They last met on 26 May 2024, when Frosinone 0-1 Udinese.
Who has won more matches between Frosinone and Udinese?
Udinese have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Frosinone are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Udinese see a goal before the break in 60% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Frosinone 49%, Udinese 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (Frosinone) and 38% (Udinese).
On the defensive side: Frosinone keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches; Udinese in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Frosinone home games / Udinese away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Frosinone play Udinese?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 49% of Frosinone's recent matches and 46% of Udinese's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Frosinone vs Udinese usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 62% of Frosinone's recent games and 38% of Udinese's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Frosinone and Udinese tend to score early?
Frosinone have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Udinese in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Udinese edge out Frosinone 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Udinese beat Frosinone 0-1 at Stadio Benito Stirpe, Regular Season - 38, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Frosinone 1.13 xG and Udinese 1.48 xG, a combined 2.61. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Frosinone fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Frosinone attack 0.92 / defence 1.37 against Udinese attack 0.89 / defence 0.90, drawn from 37/75 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Frosinone 28% | Draw 28% | Udinese 44%, with Udinese to win its most likely call at 44%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 75% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Frosinone 53%, Udinese 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Frosinone's trading profile (75 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Udinese's trading profile (75 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Frosinone arrived the stronger side — 1.53 PPG against 1.07. Form was overturned, with Udinese winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Frosinone (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.70 scoring average — below par going forward. Udinese (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.41 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.