Frosinone 3-0 Salernitana – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Frosinone at 54% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Frosinone face Salernitana.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Frosinone and Salernitana meet at Stadio Benito Stirpe in Serie A (matchday 34). This fixture gets under way on Friday 26 April 2024 at 20:45 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Frosinone have collected 0.50 PPG across their last 10 games: 0W 5D 5L. Last five: L D D D D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Frosinone at home: 2W 3D 5L from their last 10 home games — 0.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Salernitana's record over their last 10 games: 0W 2D 8L (0.20 PPG). Last five: L L D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 2.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.60 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly.
On the road, Salernitana have gone 1W 2D 7L in their last 10 away fixtures (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 0.50 vs 0.20 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 1 H2H match in our data, the wins are level at 0 apiece, with 1 draw. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 1 H2H match in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 22 Sep 2023, ended Frosinone 1–1 Salernitana — a draw.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading
Frosinone half-time and goal-timing data (last 71 games, 35 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; of the 23 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 39%; BTTS occurs in 51% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games).
Salernitana half-time and goal-timing data (last 71 games, 35 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 83% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; of the 12 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 67%; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Frosinone 55% versus Salernitana 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Frosinone 54% | Salernitana 59%). Note also that Salernitana surrender HT leads in 67% of cases while Frosinone recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 39% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Frosinone 1.92 xG and Salernitana 1.21 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Frosinone attack 0.938 / defence 1.264 | Salernitana attack 0.790 / defence 1.539. League average goals — home 1.326 / away 1.214. Salernitana's defence rating of 1.539 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Frosinone's projected output up. Salernitana's attack rating of 0.790 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.21. Frosinone's defence rating of 1.264 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Salernitana's projected output up. Data: built from Frosinone's last 33 games and Salernitana's last 71.
Result probabilities: Frosinone 54% | Draw 23% | Salernitana 24%. Fair-value odds: Frosinone 1.87 | Draw 4.44 | Salernitana 4.19. Frosinone hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS Yes probability 60% | Total xG 3.13. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.13 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% — both xG figures (1.92 / 1.21) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Frosinone as the most likely outcome at 54% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Frosinone if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 3.13 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 60% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Frosinone's last 10 home games and Salernitana's last 10 away games) averaging 3.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 60% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Frosinone 70% (last 10 home games) | Salernitana 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Frosinone vs Salernitana | Competition: Serie A, matchday 34 | Venue: Stadio Benito Stirpe • Kick-off: Friday 26 April 2024 at 20:45 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Frosinone 54% | Draw 23% | Salernitana 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% (Under 40%) | BTTS Yes 60% (No 40%) | xG Frosinone 1.92 / Salernitana 1.21 • Poisson strength factors: Frosinone attack 0.938 / def 1.264 | Salernitana attack 0.790 / def 1.539 | league avg home 1.326 / away 1.214 • Poisson stance: Frosinone (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.92
Frosinone xG
Expected Goals
1.21
Salernitana xG
60%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frosinone vs Salernitana FAQs
What time does Frosinone vs Salernitana kick off?
Frosinone vs Salernitana kicked off at 20:45 UK time on Friday 26 April 2024 at Stadio Benito Stirpe.
What was the final score in Frosinone vs Salernitana?
Frosinone 3 - 0 Salernitana.
Where is Frosinone vs Salernitana being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Benito Stirpe.
What competition is Frosinone vs Salernitana part of?
Frosinone vs Salernitana is a Serie A fixture (matchday 34) (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Frosinone vs Salernitana?
Our statistical model gives Frosinone a 54% chance of winning, Salernitana a 24% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Frosinone the favourite.
Will both teams score in Frosinone vs Salernitana?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Frosinone and Salernitana will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Frosinone vs Salernitana have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Frosinone's attacking strength (0.94x league average) is weighed against Salernitana's defensive record (1.54x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.92. Flip it around — Salernitana's attack (0.79x) against Frosinone's defence (1.26x) — and the away total comes out at 1.21.
These ratings are built from Frosinone's last 33 games and Salernitana's last 71 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 2-0 (8.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Frosinone Win
54%
1.87
23%
4.44
24%
4.19
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.2%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
1 – 0
8.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.92
Frosinone xG
Total xG
3.13
1.21
Salernitana xG
1.87
54%
Home win
4.44
23%
Draw
4.19
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.67
40%
BTTS No
2.50
Clean Sheet
30%
3.36
15%
6.79
Win to Nil
16%
6.27
4%
28.46
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.4 | 5.3 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.4 | 10.2 | 6.2 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.0 | 9.7 | 5.9 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.1 | 6.2 | 3.8 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.5 | 3.0 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frosinone vs Salernitana Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Frosinone vs Salernitana?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.5%.
How many goals are Frosinone and Salernitana expected to score?
The model projects 1.92 expected goals for Frosinone and 1.21 for Salernitana, a combined total of 3.13.
How confident is the prediction model for Frosinone vs Salernitana?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 71 outings, Frosinone have picked up 1.52 PPG on a 30W 18D 23L record — L-D-D-D-D across the most recent five.
Salernitana's form line: 11W 24D 36L from 71 games, 0.80 PPG, last five L-L-D-L-L.
Put side by side, Frosinone are the form team by 0.72 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Salernitana.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Frosinone have posted 1.91 PPG from their last 35 home games (20W 7D 8L).
On the road, Salernitana have gone 3W 13D 19L from their last 35 away games — 0.63 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Frosinone come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Frosinone are averaging 1.45 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game recently; Salernitana are on 1.04 scored and 1.86 conceded.
Last 71 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Frosinone
Current Season
Salernitana
Current Season
Frosinone (Home) vs Salernitana (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Frosinone
Current Season
Salernitana
Current Season
❓ Frosinone vs Salernitana Form FAQs
What form are Frosinone and Salernitana in coming into this match?
Frosinone have gone 30W 18D 23L in their last 71 games (1.52 PPG), while Salernitana have gone 11W 24D 36L in their last 71 (0.80 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Frosinone at home or Salernitana away?
Frosinone's home record (1.91 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Frosinone at home: 1.91 PPG; Salernitana away: 0.63 PPG.
Have Frosinone or Salernitana been keeping clean sheets recently?
Frosinone have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, Salernitana in 13%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 4 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to September 2023 — a small sample, so read the trends with care. They cover more than one competition — Serie A, Serie B. The most recent in our data was on 23 February 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Frosinone won Frosinone 3-0 Salernitana on 26 Apr 2024, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Frosinone have gone 2W 0D 0L from the 2 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Salernitana — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Frosinone
2
Draws
0
Salernitana
Recent Meetings
❓ Frosinone vs Salernitana H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Frosinone and Salernitana?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Frosinone have won 2, Salernitana have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Frosinone and Salernitana last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 23 February 2025: Salernitana 1-1 Frosinone.
Who has won more matches between Frosinone and Salernitana?
Frosinone have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Frosinone are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 38% of those situations.
Salernitana are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Frosinone 51%, Salernitana 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Frosinone) and 54% (Salernitana). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 29% and 31% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Frosinone keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches; Salernitana in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Frosinone home games / Salernitana away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frosinone vs Salernitana Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Frosinone and Salernitana matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 51% of Frosinone's recent matches and 54% of Salernitana's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Frosinone and Salernitana matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Frosinone's matches and 54% of Salernitana's.
Do Frosinone and Salernitana matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 71% of Frosinone's recent matches and 83% of Salernitana's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Frosinone run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Salernitana.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Frosinone beat Salernitana 3-0 at Stadio Benito Stirpe, Regular Season - 34, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Frosinone 1.92 xG and Salernitana 1.21 xG, a combined 3.13. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Frosinone beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Salernitana landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Frosinone attack 0.94 / defence 1.26 against Salernitana attack 0.79 / defence 1.54, drawn from 33/71 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Frosinone 54% | Draw 23% | Salernitana 24%, with Frosinone to win its most likely call at 54%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Frosinone 54%, Salernitana 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Frosinone's trading profile (71 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and duly kept one.
Salernitana's trading profile (71 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Frosinone arrived the stronger side — 1.52 PPG against 0.80. Form held, and they took the win. Frosinone (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.71 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.06 average — tighter than their form line. Salernitana (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.83 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 2.06 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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