Fiorentina 1-3 Inter – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Inter at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Fiorentina vs Inter fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Fiorentina host Inter at Stadio Artemio Franchi in Serie A, Regular Season - 5. Kick-off is scheduled for Tuesday 21 September 2021 at 19:45 UTC.
Form Guide
Fiorentina — All Games: 3W 0D 1L from 4 Serie A outings this season, averaging 2.25 points per game. Last five: L W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.75 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Fiorentina have played only a handful of Serie A games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Inter stand at 3W 1D 0L from 4 Serie A matches — 2.50 PPG. Last five: W W D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 3.75 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 4 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 75% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Inter have played only a handful of Serie A games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Fiorentina 2.25 PPG, Inter 2.50 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Both teams score in over 75% of each side's relevant games (using overall form). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
In-Play Data
Fiorentina trading profile (4 games): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 100% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 100% of games.
Inter trading profile (4 games): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; they lead at the break 75% of the time; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 25% of the time; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 25% of cases; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 100% of games; Over 3.5 in 100%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Fiorentina 100% and Inter 75% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Fiorentina 100% | Inter 100%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fiorentina 1.49 xG and Inter 1.71 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fiorentina attack 1.047 / defence 1.103 | Inter attack 1.025 / defence 1.181. League average goals — home 1.206 / away 1.509. Data: 4 Fiorentina games / 4 Inter games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Fiorentina 34% | Draw 23% | Inter 43%. Fair-value odds: Fiorentina 2.94 | Draw 4.35 | Inter 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 23% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.20. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.20 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.49 / 1.71) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Inter as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Inter offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.20 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 62% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 4.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 63% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Fiorentina 100% | Inter 75% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fiorentina vs Inter | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Stadio Artemio Franchi • Kick-off: Tuesday 21 Sep 2021, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fiorentina 34% | Draw 23% | Inter 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 63% | xG Fiorentina 1.49 / Inter 1.71 • Poisson strength factors: Fiorentina attack 1.047 / def 1.103 | Inter attack 1.025 / def 1.181 | league avg home 1.206 / away 1.509 • Poisson stance: Inter (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.49
Fiorentina xG
Expected Goals
1.71
Inter xG
63%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fiorentina vs Inter kick off?
Fiorentina vs Inter kicked off at 19:45 on Tuesday 21 September 2021 at Stadio Artemio Franchi.
What was the final score in Fiorentina vs Inter?
Fiorentina 1 - 3 Inter.
Where is Fiorentina vs Inter being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Artemio Franchi.
What competition is Fiorentina vs Inter part of?
Fiorentina vs Inter is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Fiorentina vs Inter?
Our statistical model gives Fiorentina a 34% chance of winning, Inter a 43% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Inter the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fiorentina vs Inter?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Fiorentina and Inter will score (BTTS).
Will Fiorentina vs Inter have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fiorentina and Inter?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Fiorentina and Inter in?
Fiorentina (all comps): 3W-0D-1L in 4 | 2.25 PPG | GF 1.75 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-W-W. Inter (all comps): 3W-1D-0L in 4 | 2.50 PPG | GF 3.75 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Fiorentina's attack rating (1.05) and Inter's defence rating (1.18), the model arrives at 1.49 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Inter's attack versus Fiorentina's defence, projects 1.71 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 4/4 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.7%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.9%), 2-1 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Inter Win
34%
2.96
23%
4.29
43%
2.33
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.9%
Away win
2 – 1
7.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.49
Fiorentina xG
Total xG
3.20
1.71
Inter xG
2.96
34%
Home win
4.29
23%
Draw
2.33
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.58
37%
BTTS No
2.73
Clean Sheet
18%
5.51
22%
4.45
Win to Nil
6%
16.31
10%
10.36
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.1 | 7.0 | 5.9 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 6.1 | 10.4 | 8.9 | 5.0 | 2.2 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.5 | 7.8 | 6.6 | 3.8 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 3.9 | 3.3 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fiorentina vs Inter?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.7%.
How many goals are Fiorentina and Inter expected to score?
The model projects 1.49 expected goals for Fiorentina and 1.71 for Inter, a combined total of 3.20.
How confident is the prediction model for Fiorentina vs Inter?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Fiorentina come into this having played 4 games, going 3W 0D 1L for 2.25 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-W-W. It's still early in the season for Fiorentina, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Inter sit at 2.50 PPG from 4 outings (3W 1D 0L), a run that reads W-W-D-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Inter, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Fiorentina on 2.25 PPG, Inter on 2.50. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Goals in Recent Form
Fiorentina are averaging 1.75 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Inter are on 3.75 scored and 1.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Fiorentina have seen both teams score in 100% of their recent games; Inter in 75%.
Last 4 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fiorentina
Early Season
Inter
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Fiorentina and Inter in coming into this match?
Fiorentina have gone 3W 0D 1L in their last 4 games (2.25 PPG), while Inter have gone 3W 1D 0L in their last 4 (2.50 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 22 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 3 Sep 2023, when Inter won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Fiorentina's record when hosting Inter specifically: 1W 1D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Fiorentina
2
Draws
6
Inter
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fiorentina and Inter?
From 10 meetings on record, Fiorentina have won 2, Inter have won 6, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Fiorentina and Inter last play each other?
They last met on 22 March 2026, when Fiorentina 1-1 Inter.
Who has won more matches between Fiorentina and Inter?
Inter have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Fiorentina are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Inter are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 75% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Fiorentina at 100%, Inter at 75%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 100% for Fiorentina and 100% for Inter. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 25% and 100% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fiorentina home games / Inter away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Fiorentina play Inter?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 100% of Fiorentina's games and 75% of Inter's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Fiorentina vs Inter usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 100% of Fiorentina's matches and 100% of Inter's.
Do Fiorentina and Inter tend to score early?
Fiorentina have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Inter in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Inter cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Fiorentina.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Inter beat Fiorentina 1-3 at Stadio Artemio Franchi, Regular Season - 5, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fiorentina 1.49 xG and Inter 1.71 xG, a combined 3.20. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Inter outscored their 1.71 projection by 1.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fiorentina attack 1.05 / defence 1.10 against Inter attack 1.02 / defence 1.18, drawn from 4/4 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fiorentina 34% | Draw 23% | Inter 43%, with Inter to win its most likely call at 43%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 40% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 100% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fiorentina 100%, Inter 100%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 88%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fiorentina's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 100% of their matches — today it did.
Inter's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 75% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Fiorentina 2.25 PPG, Inter 2.50 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Inter win broke the near-deadlock. Fiorentina shipped 3 against a 1.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.