Fiorentina 3-1 Hellas Verona – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Fiorentina (70%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Fiorentina face Hellas Verona.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Hellas Verona make the trip to Stadio Artemio Franchi to face Fiorentina in Serie A, Regular Season - 12. The match kicks off on Sunday 10 November 2024 at 14:00 UTC.
Form
Fiorentina (all games): 6W 3D 1L across 10 Serie A fixtures this term — 2.10 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Fiorentina, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Fiorentina's home record at Stadio Artemio Franchi: 5W 4D 1L from 10 Serie A appearances (1.90 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Hellas Verona have collected 0.90 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 3W 0D 7L. Last five: W L L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 2.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.40 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Hellas Verona, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Serie A this season, Hellas Verona have posted 3W 2D 5L from 10 away outings — 1.10 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The points-per-game gap of 1.20 in Fiorentina's favour (2.10 vs 0.90) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Fiorentina have seen both teams score in 90% of their games, Hellas Verona in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Fiorentina lead 3W to 1W over the last 6 encounters, with 2 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 5 May 2024, ended 1–2 with Hellas Verona winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Fiorentina half-time and goal-timing data (49 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games).
Hellas Verona half-time and goal-timing data (49 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fiorentina 55% versus Hellas Verona 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fiorentina 53% | Hellas Verona 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fiorentina 2.47 xG and Hellas Verona 1.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fiorentina attack 1.350 / defence 0.903 | Hellas Verona attack 0.839 / defence 1.321. League average goals — home 1.386 / away 1.317. Fiorentina carry an above-average attack strength of 1.350 — their λ of 2.47 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Hellas Verona bring a strong defensive rating of 1.321 — this is suppressing Fiorentina's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 49 Fiorentina games / 49 Hellas Verona games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Fiorentina 70% | Draw 17% | Hellas Verona 13%. Fair-value odds: Fiorentina 1.43 | Draw 5.88 | Hellas Verona 7.69. The model has a clear lean to Fiorentina (70%) — a 57pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 67% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 3.47. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 67% — a total xG of 3.47 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Fiorentina at 70% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.47 combined xG gives a 67% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 58%. Form rates corroborate: Fiorentina 90% | Hellas Verona 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fiorentina vs Hellas Verona | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Stadio Artemio Franchi • Kick-off: Sunday 10 Nov 2024, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fiorentina 70% | Draw 17% | Hellas Verona 13% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 67% | BTTS 58% | xG Fiorentina 2.47 / Hellas Verona 1.00 • Poisson strength factors: Fiorentina attack 1.350 / def 0.903 | Hellas Verona attack 0.839 / def 1.321 | league avg home 1.386 / away 1.317 • Poisson stance: Fiorentina (70%) — strong lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
2.47
Fiorentina xG
Expected Goals
1.00
Hellas Verona xG
58%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
67%
Over 2.5
46%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fiorentina vs Hellas Verona kick off?
Fiorentina vs Hellas Verona kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 10 November 2024 at Stadio Artemio Franchi.
What was the final score in Fiorentina vs Hellas Verona?
Fiorentina 3 - 1 Hellas Verona.
Where is Fiorentina vs Hellas Verona being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Artemio Franchi.
What competition is Fiorentina vs Hellas Verona part of?
Fiorentina vs Hellas Verona is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Fiorentina vs Hellas Verona?
Our statistical model gives Fiorentina a 70% chance of winning, Hellas Verona a 13% chance, and a 17% chance of a draw — making Fiorentina the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fiorentina vs Hellas Verona?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Fiorentina and Hellas Verona will score (BTTS).
Will Fiorentina vs Hellas Verona have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 67%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fiorentina and Hellas Verona?
Record (6 meetings): Fiorentina 3W | Draws 2 | Hellas Verona 1W.
What form are Fiorentina and Hellas Verona in?
Fiorentina (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-W-W-W. Hellas Verona (all comps): 3W-0D-7L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.40 | L5 W-L-L-L-W.
What do the betting odds say about Fiorentina vs Hellas Verona?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Fiorentina's attack at 1.35x the league average against Hellas Verona's defence at 1.32x — combine the two and it projects 2.47 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Hellas Verona's attack (0.84x) against Fiorentina's defence (0.90x) — and the away total comes out at 1.00.
These ratings are built from 49/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-0 carries the highest individual probability at 9.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 1-1 (8.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Fiorentina Win
70%
1.44
17%
5.87
13%
7.50
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
9.5%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
3 – 0
7.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.47
Fiorentina xG
Total xG
3.47
1.00
Hellas Verona xG
1.44
70%
Home win
5.87
17%
Draw
7.50
13%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
67%
Over 2.5
1.49
33%
Under 2.5
3.03
46%
Over 3.5
2.17
54%
Under 3.5
1.85
27%
Over 4.5
3.70
73%
Under 4.5
1.37
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.73
42%
BTTS No
2.37
Clean Sheet
37%
2.71
8%
11.85
Win to Nil
26%
3.89
1%
88.87
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.1 | 3.1 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 7.7 | 7.7 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.5 | 9.5 | 4.7 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.8 | 7.8 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 4.8 | 4.8 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 2.4 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fiorentina vs Hellas Verona?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.5%.
How many goals are Fiorentina and Hellas Verona expected to score?
The model projects 2.47 expected goals for Fiorentina and 1.00 for Hellas Verona, a combined total of 3.47.
How confident is the prediction model for Fiorentina vs Hellas Verona?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 70%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Fiorentina's recent record stands at 23W 13D 13L from 49 games, a 1.67 PPG return, with W-W-W-W-W in the last five. The sample for Fiorentina is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Hellas Verona, meanwhile, have gone 13W 11D 25L across 49 games — 1.02 PPG, with W-L-L-L-W in their last five. The sample for Hellas Verona is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Fiorentina by 0.65 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Hellas Verona heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Fiorentina have managed 13W 7D 4L from 24 games — 1.92 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Hellas Verona's away record stands at 4W 5D 15L across 24 trips, a 0.71 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Fiorentina come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Fiorentina are averaging 1.69 goals scored and 1.12 conceded per game recently; Hellas Verona are on 1.10 scored and 1.53 conceded.
Last 49 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fiorentina
Blended
Hellas Verona
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Fiorentina and Hellas Verona in coming into this match?
Fiorentina have gone 23W 13D 13L in their last 49 games (1.67 PPG), while Hellas Verona have gone 13W 11D 25L in their last 49 (1.02 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fiorentina at home or Hellas Verona away?
Fiorentina's home record (1.92 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fiorentina at home: 1.92 PPG; Hellas Verona away: 0.71 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since December 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 4 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Fiorentina won 0-3 on 27 Feb 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Fiorentina have gone 3W 1D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Hellas Verona — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Fiorentina
2
Draws
3
Hellas Verona
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fiorentina and Hellas Verona?
From 10 meetings on record, Fiorentina have won 5, Hellas Verona have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Fiorentina and Hellas Verona last play each other?
They last met on 4 April 2026, when Hellas Verona 0-1 Fiorentina.
Who has won more matches between Fiorentina and Hellas Verona?
Fiorentina have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Fiorentina are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 21% of those situations.
Hellas Verona are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Fiorentina 67%, Hellas Verona 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 71% (Fiorentina) and 46% (Hellas Verona). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 38% and 21% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Hellas Verona in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fiorentina home games / Hellas Verona away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Fiorentina play Hellas Verona?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Fiorentina's games and 50% of Hellas Verona's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Fiorentina vs Hellas Verona usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 71% of Fiorentina's matches and 46% of Hellas Verona's.
Do Fiorentina and Hellas Verona tend to score early?
Fiorentina have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Hellas Verona in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Fiorentina cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Hellas Verona.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fiorentina beat Hellas Verona 3-1 at Stadio Artemio Franchi, Regular Season - 12, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fiorentina 2.47 xG and Hellas Verona 1.00 xG, a combined 3.47. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fiorentina attack 1.35 / defence 0.90 against Hellas Verona attack 0.84 / defence 1.32, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fiorentina 70% | Draw 17% | Hellas Verona 13%, with Fiorentina to win its most likely call at 70%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 67%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 46% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fiorentina 53%, Hellas Verona 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fiorentina's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Hellas Verona's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Fiorentina arrived the stronger side — 1.67 PPG against 1.02. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Fiorentina (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.00 average — above their attacking norm. Hellas Verona (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.54 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.