Fiorentina 1-2 AS Roma – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates AS Roma at 46% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Fiorentina vs AS Roma encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie A clash, Regular Season - 6 as Fiorentina welcome AS Roma to Stadio Artemio Franchi. Kick-off is set for Sunday 5 October 2025 at 14:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie A games this season, Fiorentina have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: D D L L D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Fiorentina have played only a handful of Serie A games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Stadio Artemio Franchi, Fiorentina have gone 6W 1D 3L this season (10 games, 1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Artemio Franchi. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Fiorentina are significantly better at Stadio Artemio Franchi than their overall form suggests.
AS Roma — All Games: 8W 0D 2L from 10 Serie A fixtures this season — 2.40 PPG. Last five: W W L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 0.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.40 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. AS Roma have played only a handful of Serie A games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, AS Roma have gone 8W 1D 1L from 10 away fixtures this term (2.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 0.30 conceded per game. 8 away clean sheets from 10 games (80%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Form points away from home here. AS Roma's 2.40 PPG return is 1.20 points per game ahead of Fiorentina's 1.20 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 7 previous encounters have yielded 3 wins for Fiorentina, 2 for AS Roma and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 7 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 2.9 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 4 May 2025, ended 0–1 with AS Roma winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 2.9 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Fiorentina in-play tendencies (43 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games).
AS Roma in-play tendencies (43 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 52% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 24% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fiorentina 56% versus AS Roma 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fiorentina 58% | AS Roma 35%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fiorentina 0.90 xG and AS Roma 1.35 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fiorentina attack 1.047 / defence 1.221 | AS Roma attack 0.950 / defence 0.715. League average goals — home 1.200 / away 1.166. AS Roma's defence strength of 0.715 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 43 Fiorentina games / 43 AS Roma games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Fiorentina 24% | Draw 30% | AS Roma 46%. Fair-value odds: Fiorentina 4.17 | Draw 3.33 | AS Roma 2.17. AS Roma hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.25. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.25 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, AS Roma are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on AS Roma offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.25 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 39% probability — marginal — conflicting signals conviction, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 2.9 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 45%. Form rates corroborate: Fiorentina 40% | AS Roma 20% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fiorentina vs AS Roma | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Stadio Artemio Franchi • Kick-off: Sunday 5 Oct 2025, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fiorentina 24% | Draw 30% | AS Roma 46% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 45% | xG Fiorentina 0.90 / AS Roma 1.35 • Poisson strength factors: Fiorentina attack 1.047 / def 1.221 | AS Roma attack 0.950 / def 0.715 | league avg home 1.200 / away 1.166 • Poisson stance: AS Roma (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.90
Fiorentina xG
Expected Goals
1.35
AS Roma xG
45%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fiorentina vs AS Roma kick off?
Fiorentina vs AS Roma kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 5 October 2025 at Stadio Artemio Franchi.
What was the final score in Fiorentina vs AS Roma?
Fiorentina 1 - 2 AS Roma.
Where is Fiorentina vs AS Roma being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Artemio Franchi.
What competition is Fiorentina vs AS Roma part of?
Fiorentina vs AS Roma is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Fiorentina vs AS Roma?
Our statistical model gives Fiorentina a 24% chance of winning, AS Roma a 46% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making AS Roma the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fiorentina vs AS Roma?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Fiorentina and AS Roma will score (BTTS).
Will Fiorentina vs AS Roma have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fiorentina and AS Roma?
Record (7 meetings): Fiorentina 3W | Draws 2 | AS Roma 2W.
What form are Fiorentina and AS Roma in?
Fiorentina (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-D-L-L-D. AS Roma (all comps): 8W-0D-2L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.40 | L5 W-W-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Fiorentina's attacking strength (1.05x league average) is weighed against AS Roma's defensive record (0.71x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.90. The same calculation in reverse, AS Roma's attack versus Fiorentina's defence, projects 1.35 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 43/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.5%. Close behind: 0-1 (12.6%), 0-0 (12.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
AS Roma Win
24%
4.17
30%
3.38
46%
2.15
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.2%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
0 – 0
10.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.90
Fiorentina xG
Total xG
2.25
1.35
AS Roma xG
4.17
24%
Home win
3.38
30%
Draw
2.15
46%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.23
55%
BTTS No
1.81
Clean Sheet
26%
3.87
41%
2.45
Win to Nil
6%
16.13
19%
5.28
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.5 | 14.2 | 9.6 | 4.3 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 9.5 | 12.8 | 8.7 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 4.2 | 5.7 | 3.9 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 1.7 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fiorentina vs AS Roma?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Fiorentina and AS Roma expected to score?
The model projects 0.90 expected goals for Fiorentina and 1.35 for AS Roma, a combined total of 2.25.
How confident is the prediction model for Fiorentina vs AS Roma?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 43 outings, Fiorentina have picked up 1.58 PPG on a 19W 11D 13L record — D-D-L-L-D across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Fiorentina, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
AS Roma's form line: 24W 9D 10L from 43 games, 1.88 PPG, last five W-W-L-W-W. It's still early in the season for AS Roma, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Fiorentina on 1.58 PPG, AS Roma on 1.88. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Fiorentina have posted 1.90 PPG from 21 outings (12W 4D 5L).
On the road, AS Roma have gone 9W 7D 5L from 21 away games — 1.62 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Fiorentina are averaging 1.47 goals scored and 1.09 conceded per game recently; AS Roma are on 1.42 scored and 0.84 conceded.
Defensively: AS Roma in 47% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 43 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fiorentina
Early Season
AS Roma
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Fiorentina and AS Roma in coming into this match?
Fiorentina have gone 19W 11D 13L in their last 43 games (1.58 PPG), while AS Roma have gone 24W 9D 10L in their last 43 (1.88 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fiorentina at home or AS Roma away?
Fiorentina's home record (1.90 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fiorentina at home: 1.90 PPG; AS Roma away: 1.62 PPG.
Have Fiorentina or AS Roma been keeping clean sheets recently?
Fiorentina have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, AS Roma in 47%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to May 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. The two were last together as recently as 24 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: AS Roma have taken the last 4 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 27 Oct 2024, when Fiorentina won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Fiorentina's record when hosting AS Roma specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Fiorentina
2
Draws
5
AS Roma
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fiorentina and AS Roma?
From 10 meetings on record, Fiorentina have won 3, AS Roma have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Fiorentina and AS Roma last play each other?
They last met on 24 August 2026, when AS Roma 4-0 Fiorentina.
Who has won more matches between Fiorentina and AS Roma?
AS Roma have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Fiorentina are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 57% of the time.
AS Roma see a goal before the break in 52% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Fiorentina 57%, AS Roma 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Fiorentina) and 24% (AS Roma).
On the defensive side: Fiorentina keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; AS Roma in 48%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fiorentina home games / AS Roma away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Fiorentina play AS Roma?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 57% of Fiorentina's recent matches and 43% of AS Roma's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Fiorentina vs AS Roma usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 67% of Fiorentina's recent games and 24% of AS Roma's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Fiorentina and AS Roma tend to score early?
Fiorentina have had a goal before half-time in 86% of their recent matches, AS Roma in 52% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as AS Roma edge out Fiorentina 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
AS Roma beat Fiorentina 1-2 at Stadio Artemio Franchi, Regular Season - 6, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fiorentina 0.90 xG and AS Roma 1.35 xG, a combined 2.25. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fiorentina attack 1.05 / defence 1.22 against AS Roma attack 0.95 / defence 0.71, drawn from 43/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fiorentina 24% | Draw 30% | AS Roma 46%, with AS Roma to win its most likely call at 46%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fiorentina 58%, AS Roma 35%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fiorentina's trading profile (43 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
AS Roma's trading profile (43 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Fiorentina 1.58 PPG, AS Roma 1.88 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the AS Roma win broke the near-deadlock. Fiorentina (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.10 concession average — a leakier day than usual. AS Roma (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.