Cremonese 2-0 Spezia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Spezia at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Cremonese vs Spezia fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie A encounter, Regular Season - 34 sees Spezia travel to Stadio Giovanni Zini to take on Cremonese. The game is scheduled for Saturday 6 May 2023, 19:45 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Cremonese stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Serie A matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W W L D D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Cremonese's home record at Stadio Giovanni Zini: 2W 2D 6L from 10 Serie A appearances (0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Across all Serie A games this season, Spezia have recorded 1W 5D 4L from 10 outings — 0.80 PPG. Last five: D L D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Spezia's away record: 2W 4D 4L from 10 road trips in Serie A this season (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Cremonese 1.20 PPG, Spezia 0.80 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Cremonese have won 0, Spezia 0, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 16 Oct 2022, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Cremonese in-play tendencies (71 games, 35 at home): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games).
Spezia in-play tendencies (71 games, 35 at away): they score before half-time in 89% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 84% of the time; BTTS occurs in 51% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cremonese 58% versus Spezia 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cremonese 49% | Spezia 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cremonese 1.07 xG and Spezia 1.40 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cremonese attack 0.729 / defence 1.276 | Spezia attack 0.942 / defence 1.145. League average goals — home 1.284 / away 1.166. Cremonese's attack strength of 0.729 is below the league average — the 1.07 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 33 Cremonese games / 71 Spezia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cremonese 28% | Draw 28% | Spezia 44%. Fair-value odds: Cremonese 3.57 | Draw 3.57 | Spezia 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.47. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.47 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Spezia are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Spezia offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.47 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 45% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 50%. Form rates corroborate: Cremonese 50% | Spezia 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cremonese vs Spezia | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 34 | Venue: Stadio Giovanni Zini • Kick-off: Saturday 6 May 2023, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cremonese 28% | Draw 28% | Spezia 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 50% | xG Cremonese 1.07 / Spezia 1.40 • Poisson strength factors: Cremonese attack 0.729 / def 1.276 | Spezia attack 0.942 / def 1.145 | league avg home 1.284 / away 1.166 • Poisson stance: Spezia (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.07
Cremonese xG
Expected Goals
1.40
Spezia xG
50%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cremonese vs Spezia kick off?
Cremonese vs Spezia kicked off at 19:45 on Saturday 6 May 2023 at Stadio Giovanni Zini.
What was the final score in Cremonese vs Spezia?
Cremonese 2 - 0 Spezia.
Where is Cremonese vs Spezia being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Giovanni Zini.
What competition is Cremonese vs Spezia part of?
Cremonese vs Spezia is a Regular Season - 34 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Cremonese vs Spezia?
Our statistical model gives Cremonese a 28% chance of winning, Spezia a 44% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Spezia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cremonese vs Spezia?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Cremonese and Spezia will score (BTTS).
Will Cremonese vs Spezia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cremonese and Spezia?
Record (1 meetings): Cremonese 0W | Draws 1 | Spezia 0W.
What form are Cremonese and Spezia in?
Cremonese (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-W-L-D-D. Spezia (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-L-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Cremonese's attack at 0.73x the league average against Spezia's defence at 1.15x — combine the two and it projects 1.07 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Spezia's attack versus Cremonese's defence, projects 1.40 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 33/71 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (10.2%), 0-0 (10.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Spezia Win
28%
3.53
28%
3.60
44%
2.27
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.8%
Away win
1 – 0
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.07
Cremonese xG
Total xG
2.47
1.40
Spezia xG
3.53
28%
Home win
3.60
28%
Draw
2.27
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.00
50%
BTTS No
2.00
Clean Sheet
25%
4.06
34%
2.92
Win to Nil
7%
14.35
15%
6.64
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.4 | 11.8 | 8.3 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 9.0 | 12.7 | 8.9 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 4.8 | 6.8 | 4.8 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 2.4 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cremonese vs Spezia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Cremonese and Spezia expected to score?
The model projects 1.07 expected goals for Cremonese and 1.40 for Spezia, a combined total of 2.47.
How confident is the prediction model for Cremonese vs Spezia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Cremonese come into this having played 71 games, going 23W 21D 27L for 1.27 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-D-D.
On the other side, Spezia sit at 0.89 PPG from 71 outings (15W 18D 38L), a run that reads D-L-D-L-L across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Cremonese on 1.27 PPG, Spezia on 0.89. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Cremonese's home form reads 13W 10D 12L across 35 games on their own ground, a 1.40 PPG return.
Away from home, Spezia have taken 0.80 points per game from 35 outings (7W 7D 21L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Cremonese come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Cremonese are averaging 1.21 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game recently; Spezia are on 0.97 scored and 1.76 conceded.
Last 71 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cremonese
Current Season
Spezia
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cremonese and Spezia in coming into this match?
Cremonese have gone 23W 21D 27L in their last 71 games (1.27 PPG), while Spezia have gone 15W 18D 38L in their last 71 (0.89 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cremonese at home or Spezia away?
Cremonese's home record (1.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cremonese at home: 1.40 PPG; Spezia away: 0.80 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2022. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Serie A, Serie B all feature in the head-to-head log. It has been a while since the last meeting — 1 June 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 5 Nov 2023, when Cremonese won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Cremonese's record when hosting Spezia specifically: 2W 2D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
5
Cremonese
3
Draws
0
Spezia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cremonese and Spezia?
From 8 meetings on record, Cremonese have won 5, Spezia have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Cremonese and Spezia last play each other?
They last met on 1 June 2025, when Spezia 2-3 Cremonese.
Who has won more matches between Cremonese and Spezia?
Cremonese have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Cremonese are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Spezia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cremonese 54%, Spezia 51% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Cremonese) and 57% (Spezia).
On the defensive side: Cremonese have failed to score in 31% of games; Spezia in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cremonese home games / Spezia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cremonese play Spezia?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Cremonese's recent matches and 51% of Spezia's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Cremonese vs Spezia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Cremonese's recent games and 57% of Spezia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cremonese and Spezia tend to score early?
Cremonese have had a goal before half-time in 66% of their recent matches, Spezia in 89% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Cremonese cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Spezia.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cremonese beat Spezia 2-0 at Stadio Giovanni Zini, Regular Season - 34, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cremonese 1.07 xG and Spezia 1.40 xG, a combined 2.47. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Cremonese beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Spezia landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cremonese attack 0.73 / defence 1.28 against Spezia attack 0.94 / defence 1.15, drawn from 33/71 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cremonese 28% | Draw 28% | Spezia 44%, with Spezia to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual Cremonese win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cremonese 49%, Spezia 55%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cremonese's trading profile (71 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.
Spezia's trading profile (71 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Cremonese 1.27 PPG, Spezia 0.89 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Cremonese win broke the near-deadlock. Cremonese (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.20 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.26 average — tighter than their form line. Spezia (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.91 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.