Cremonese 1-3 AS Roma – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates AS Roma at 44% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Cremonese vs AS Roma encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie A clash, Regular Season - 12 as Cremonese welcome AS Roma to Stadio Giovanni Zini. Kick-off is set for Sunday 23 November 2025 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Cremonese stand at 2W 5D 3L from 10 Serie A matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D D W L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Cremonese, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Cremonese's form when playing at home: 3W 6D 1L across 10 games at Stadio Giovanni Zini this term (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
AS Roma — All Games: 7W 0D 3L from 10 Serie A fixtures this season — 2.10 PPG. Last five: L W W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 0.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.50 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for AS Roma, so this record blends games from this season and last.
AS Roma away from home this season: 7W 1D 2L from 10 away games — 2.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. AS Roma are 1.00 PPG ahead (2.10 vs 1.10), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Cremonese, 1 for AS Roma and 0 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 28 Feb 2023, ended 2–1 with Cremonese winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Cremonese trading profile (49 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
AS Roma trading profile (49 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cremonese 67% versus AS Roma 41%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cremonese 55% | AS Roma 35%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cremonese 0.76 xG and AS Roma 1.19 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cremonese attack 0.872 / defence 1.166 | AS Roma attack 0.947 / defence 0.732. League average goals — home 1.190 / away 1.076. AS Roma's defence strength of 0.732 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 11 Cremonese games / 49 AS Roma games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cremonese 22% | Draw 34% | AS Roma 44%. Fair-value odds: Cremonese 4.55 | Draw 2.94 | AS Roma 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 31% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 1.95. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 69% probability — total xG of 1.95 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates AS Roma as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 34% draw probability, Draw No Bet on AS Roma offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.95 combined xG gives a 31% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 39% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Cremonese 70% | AS Roma 30%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cremonese vs AS Roma | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Stadio Giovanni Zini • Kick-off: Sunday 23 Nov 2025, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cremonese 22% | Draw 34% | AS Roma 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 31% | BTTS 39% | xG Cremonese 0.76 / AS Roma 1.19 • Poisson strength factors: Cremonese attack 0.872 / def 1.166 | AS Roma attack 0.947 / def 0.732 | league avg home 1.190 / away 1.076 • Poisson stance: AS Roma (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.76
Cremonese xG
Expected Goals
1.19
AS Roma xG
39%
BTTS
60%
Over 1.5
31%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cremonese vs AS Roma kick off?
Cremonese vs AS Roma kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 23 November 2025 at Stadio Giovanni Zini.
What was the final score in Cremonese vs AS Roma?
Cremonese 1 - 3 AS Roma.
Where is Cremonese vs AS Roma being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Giovanni Zini.
What competition is Cremonese vs AS Roma part of?
Cremonese vs AS Roma is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Cremonese vs AS Roma?
Our statistical model gives Cremonese a 22% chance of winning, AS Roma a 44% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making AS Roma the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cremonese vs AS Roma?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Cremonese and AS Roma will score (BTTS).
Will Cremonese vs AS Roma have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 31%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cremonese and AS Roma?
Record (2 meetings): Cremonese 1W | Draws 0 | AS Roma 1W.
What form are Cremonese and AS Roma in?
Cremonese (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-D-W-L-L. AS Roma (all comps): 7W-0D-3L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.50 | L5 L-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Cremonese's attack rating (0.87) and AS Roma's defence rating (0.73), the model arrives at 0.76 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, AS Roma's attack versus Cremonese's defence, projects 1.19 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 11/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.9%. Close behind: 0-1 (15.3%), 1-1 (14.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 46% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
AS Roma Win
22%
4.65
34%
2.90
44%
2.27
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
17.0%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.3%
Draw
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.76
Cremonese xG
Total xG
1.95
1.19
AS Roma xG
4.65
22%
Home win
2.90
34%
Draw
2.27
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
58%
Over 1.5
1.72
42%
Under 1.5
2.38
31%
Over 2.5
3.23
69%
Under 2.5
1.45
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.56
61%
BTTS No
1.64
Clean Sheet
30%
3.28
47%
2.14
Win to Nil
7%
15.24
21%
4.85
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.3 | 17.0 | 10.1 | 4.0 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.8 | 12.9 | 7.6 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 4.1 | 4.9 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cremonese vs AS Roma?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.9%.
How many goals are Cremonese and AS Roma expected to score?
The model projects 0.76 expected goals for Cremonese and 1.19 for AS Roma, a combined total of 1.95.
How confident is the prediction model for Cremonese vs AS Roma?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Cremonese's recent record stands at 19W 19D 11L from 49 games, a 1.55 PPG return, with D-D-W-L-L in the last five. The sample for Cremonese is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
AS Roma, meanwhile, have gone 28W 9D 12L across 49 games — 1.90 PPG, with L-W-W-L-W in their last five. The sample for AS Roma is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Cremonese on 1.55 PPG, AS Roma on 1.90. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Cremonese have managed 8W 12D 4L from 24 games — 1.50 PPG in front of their own supporters.
AS Roma's away record stands at 11W 7D 6L across 24 trips, a 1.67 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Cremonese are averaging 1.55 goals scored and 1.18 conceded per game recently; AS Roma are on 1.39 scored and 0.82 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Cremonese have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games.
Defensively: AS Roma in 45% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 49 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cremonese
Blended
AS Roma
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cremonese and AS Roma in coming into this match?
Cremonese have gone 19W 19D 11L in their last 49 games (1.55 PPG), while AS Roma have gone 28W 9D 12L in their last 49 (1.90 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cremonese at home or AS Roma away?
AS Roma's away record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cremonese at home: 1.50 PPG; AS Roma away: 1.67 PPG.
Have Cremonese or AS Roma been keeping clean sheets recently?
Cremonese have kept a clean sheet in 24% of their recent games, AS Roma in 45%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Cremonese and AS Roma runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 22 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: AS Roma have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 22 Feb 2026, when AS Roma won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Cremonese's record when hosting AS Roma specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Cremonese
0
Draws
3
AS Roma
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cremonese and AS Roma?
From 4 meetings on record, Cremonese have won 1, AS Roma have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Cremonese and AS Roma last play each other?
They last met on 22 February 2026, when AS Roma 3-0 Cremonese.
Who has won more matches between Cremonese and AS Roma?
AS Roma have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Cremonese are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
AS Roma see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cremonese 75%, AS Roma 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Cremonese) and 25% (AS Roma).
On the defensive side: AS Roma in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cremonese home games / AS Roma away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cremonese play AS Roma?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 75% of Cremonese's games and 42% of AS Roma's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Cremonese vs AS Roma usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Cremonese's recent games and 25% of AS Roma's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cremonese and AS Roma tend to score early?
Cremonese have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, AS Roma in 58% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
AS Roma cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Cremonese.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
AS Roma beat Cremonese 1-3 at Stadio Giovanni Zini, Regular Season - 12, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cremonese 0.76 xG and AS Roma 1.19 xG, a combined 1.95. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. AS Roma outscored their 1.19 projection by 1.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cremonese attack 0.87 / defence 1.17 against AS Roma attack 0.95 / defence 0.73, drawn from 11/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cremonese 22% | Draw 34% | AS Roma 44%, with AS Roma to win its most likely call at 44%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 60% and landed. Over 3.5 was 13% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cremonese 55%, AS Roma 35%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cremonese's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
AS Roma's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Cremonese 1.55 PPG, AS Roma 1.90 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the AS Roma win broke the near-deadlock. Cremonese (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.17 concession average — a leakier day than usual. AS Roma (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.