Cagliari 1-1 Genoa – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Cagliari at 38% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Cagliari face Genoa.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Cagliari welcome Genoa to Unipol Domus in Serie A (matchday 28). Kick-off is Friday 7 March 2025 at 19:45 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Cagliari have gone 3W 2D 5L — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: L W D L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters, Cagliari have posted 4W 1D 5L from their last 10 home games — 1.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Genoa stand at 4W 3D 3L — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L D W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Genoa's form when playing away from home: 3W 3D 4L across their last 10 road games (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.10 PPG (Cagliari) versus 1.50 (Genoa). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The H2H picture is flat: the 7 H2H matches we hold have produced 1 wins for Cagliari, 3 for Genoa and 3 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
The 7 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 24 Nov 2024, ended Cagliari 2–2 Genoa — a draw.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Cagliari in-play tendencies (last 65 games, 32 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 72% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; of the 9 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 78%; of the 31 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 26%; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Genoa in-play tendencies (last 65 games, 32 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 53% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 36%; of the 17 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 53%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cagliari 60% versus Genoa 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cagliari 54% | Genoa 40%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Cagliari surrender their half-time lead 78% of the time, while Genoa have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 53% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cagliari 1.25 xG and Genoa 1.08 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cagliari attack 0.975 / defence 1.134 | Genoa attack 0.788 / defence 0.980. League average goals — home 1.304 / away 1.206. Genoa's attack rating of 0.788 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.08. Data: built from Cagliari's last 65 games and Genoa's last 65.
Result probabilities: Cagliari 38% | Draw 32% | Genoa 30%. Fair-value odds: Cagliari 2.62 | Draw 3.12 | Genoa 3.35. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS Yes probability 49% | Total xG 2.32. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.32 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 51% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Cagliari as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Cagliari offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.32 combined xG gives a 59% probability to Under 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Cagliari 50% (last 10 home games) | Genoa 40% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cagliari vs Genoa | Competition: Serie A, matchday 28 | Venue: Unipol Domus • Kick-off: Friday 7 March 2025 at 19:45 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cagliari 38% | Draw 32% | Genoa 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% (Under 59%) | BTTS Yes 49% (No 51%) | xG Cagliari 1.25 / Genoa 1.08 • Poisson strength factors: Cagliari attack 0.975 / def 1.134 | Genoa attack 0.788 / def 0.980 | league avg home 1.304 / away 1.206 • Poisson stance: Cagliari (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.25
Cagliari xG
Expected Goals
1.08
Genoa xG
49%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Cagliari vs Genoa FAQs
What time does Cagliari vs Genoa kick off?
Cagliari vs Genoa kicked off at 19:45 UK time on Friday 7 March 2025 at Unipol Domus.
What was the final score in Cagliari vs Genoa?
Cagliari 1 - 1 Genoa.
Where is Cagliari vs Genoa being played?
The match is being played at Unipol Domus.
What competition is Cagliari vs Genoa part of?
Cagliari vs Genoa is a Serie A fixture (matchday 28) (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Cagliari vs Genoa?
Our statistical model gives Cagliari a 38% chance of winning, Genoa a 30% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Cagliari the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cagliari vs Genoa?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Cagliari and Genoa will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (51%).
Will Cagliari vs Genoa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (59%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Cagliari's attack rating (0.97) and Genoa's defence rating (0.98), the model arrives at 1.25 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Genoa's attack versus Cagliari's defence, projects 1.08 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Cagliari's last 65 games and Genoa's last 65 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.5%), 1-0 (10.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cagliari Win
38%
2.62
32%
3.12
30%
3.35
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.2%
Home win
0 – 1
10.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.25
Cagliari xG
Total xG
2.32
1.08
Genoa xG
2.62
38%
Home win
3.12
32%
Draw
3.35
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.04
51%
BTTS No
1.96
Clean Sheet
34%
2.94
29%
3.48
Win to Nil
13%
7.70
9%
11.65
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.8 | 10.6 | 5.7 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.2 | 13.1 | 7.1 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 8.2 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 3.4 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Cagliari vs Genoa Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Cagliari vs Genoa?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Cagliari and Genoa expected to score?
The model projects 1.25 expected goals for Cagliari and 1.08 for Genoa, a combined total of 2.32.
How confident is the prediction model for Cagliari vs Genoa?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 65 outings, Cagliari have picked up 0.94 PPG on a 14W 19D 32L record — L-W-D-L-L across the most recent five.
Genoa's form line: 19W 23D 23L from 65 games, 1.23 PPG, last five L-D-W-L-D.
Form-wise this is close to level: Cagliari on 0.94 PPG, Genoa on 1.23. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Cagliari have posted 1.25 PPG from their last 32 home games (10W 10D 12L).
On the road, Genoa have gone 8W 10D 14L from their last 32 away games — 1.06 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Cagliari are averaging 1.06 goals scored and 1.69 conceded per game recently; Genoa are on 1.08 scored and 1.23 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Cagliari have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Last 65 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cagliari
Blended
Genoa
Blended
Cagliari (Home) vs Genoa (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Cagliari
Blended
Genoa
Blended
❓ Cagliari vs Genoa Form FAQs
What form are Cagliari and Genoa in coming into this match?
Cagliari have gone 14W 19D 32L in their last 65 games (0.94 PPG), while Genoa have gone 19W 23D 23L in their last 65 (1.23 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cagliari at home or Genoa away?
Cagliari's home record (1.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cagliari at home: 1.25 PPG; Genoa away: 1.06 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to September 2021. They cover more than one competition — Serie A, Serie B. The most recent was on 12 January 2026, roughly 10 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 29 Apr 2024, when Genoa won Genoa 3-0 Cagliari.
Cagliari's record when hosting Genoa specifically: 1W 3D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Cagliari
5
Draws
4
Genoa
Recent Meetings
❓ Cagliari vs Genoa H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Cagliari and Genoa?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Cagliari have won 1, Genoa have won 4, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Cagliari and Genoa last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 12 January 2026: Genoa 3-0 Cagliari.
Who has won more matches between Cagliari and Genoa?
Genoa have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Cagliari are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Genoa see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cagliari 69%, Genoa 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 59% (Cagliari) and 41% (Genoa).
On the defensive side: Cagliari have failed to score in 28% of games; Genoa in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cagliari home games / Genoa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Cagliari vs Genoa Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Cagliari and Genoa matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 69% of Cagliari's games and 50% of Genoa's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Cagliari and Genoa matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 59% of Cagliari's recent games and 41% of Genoa's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cagliari and Genoa matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 72% of Cagliari's recent matches and 53% of Genoa's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Cagliari and Genoa share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Unipol Domus, Regular Season - 28, as Cagliari and Genoa drew 1-1 in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cagliari 1.25 xG and Genoa 1.08 xG, a combined 2.32. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cagliari attack 0.97 / defence 1.13 against Genoa attack 0.79 / defence 0.98, drawn from 65/65 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cagliari 38% | Draw 32% | Genoa 30%, with Cagliari to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cagliari 54%, Genoa 40%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cagliari's trading profile (65 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Genoa's trading profile (65 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Cagliari 0.94 PPG, Genoa 1.23 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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