Cagliari 1-2 Atalanta – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Atalanta at 60% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Cagliari vs Atalanta encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Cagliari host Atalanta at Unipol Domus in Serie A, Regular Season - 12. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 6 November 2021 at 19:45 UTC.
Form Guide
Cagliari — All Games: 1W 2D 7L from 10 Serie A outings this season, averaging 0.50 points per game. Last five: D W L L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 2.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Cagliari, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Cagliari's home record at Unipol Domus: 1W 2D 3L from 6 Serie A appearances (0.83 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.83 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 83% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Serie A games this season, Atalanta have recorded 4W 4D 2L from 10 outings — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L W D W D. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.30. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Atalanta, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Atalanta's away record: 4W 1D 0L from 5 road trips in Serie A this season (2.60 PPG). They are averaging 2.40 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 2.60 exceeds their overall 1.60 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Atalanta — 1.10 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.60 vs 0.50). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Both teams score in over 80% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
Trading Patterns
Cagliari in-play and half-time data (11 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 46%; they fail to score in 36% of games.
Atalanta in-play and half-time data (11 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Cagliari 64% and Atalanta 82% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Cagliari 64% | Atalanta 73%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cagliari 1.13 xG and Atalanta 2.13 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cagliari attack 0.899 / defence 1.351 | Atalanta attack 1.163 / defence 0.992. League average goals — home 1.268 / away 1.359. Data: 11 Cagliari games / 11 Atalanta games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cagliari 19% | Draw 20% | Atalanta 60%. Fair-value odds: Cagliari 5.26 | Draw 5.00 | Atalanta 1.67. The model has a clear lean to Atalanta (60%) — a 41pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 3.26. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.26 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.13 / 2.13) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Atalanta are the pick at 60% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.26 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 63% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 60%. Form rates corroborate: Cagliari 83% | Atalanta 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cagliari vs Atalanta | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Unipol Domus • Kick-off: Saturday 6 Nov 2021, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cagliari 19% | Draw 20% | Atalanta 60% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% | BTTS 60% | xG Cagliari 1.13 / Atalanta 2.13 • Poisson strength factors: Cagliari attack 0.899 / def 1.351 | Atalanta attack 1.163 / def 0.992 | league avg home 1.268 / away 1.359 • Poisson stance: Atalanta (60%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.13
Cagliari xG
Expected Goals
2.13
Atalanta xG
60%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cagliari vs Atalanta kick off?
Cagliari vs Atalanta kicked off at 19:45 on Saturday 6 November 2021 at Unipol Domus.
What was the final score in Cagliari vs Atalanta?
Cagliari 1 - 2 Atalanta.
Where is Cagliari vs Atalanta being played?
The match is being played at Unipol Domus.
What competition is Cagliari vs Atalanta part of?
Cagliari vs Atalanta is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Cagliari vs Atalanta?
Our statistical model gives Cagliari a 19% chance of winning, Atalanta a 60% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Atalanta the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cagliari vs Atalanta?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Cagliari and Atalanta will score (BTTS).
Will Cagliari vs Atalanta have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cagliari and Atalanta?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Cagliari and Atalanta in?
Cagliari (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.20 | L5 D-W-L-L-L. Atalanta (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Cagliari's attack rating (0.90) and Atalanta's defence rating (0.99), the model arrives at 1.13 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Atalanta's attack versus Cagliari's defence, projects 2.13 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 11/11 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.4%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.8%), 0-2 (8.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Atalanta Win
19%
5.16
20%
4.92
60%
1.66
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
9.8%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.2%
Draw
0 – 2
8.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.13
Cagliari xG
Total xG
3.26
2.13
Atalanta xG
5.16
19%
Home win
4.92
20%
Draw
1.66
60%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.67
40%
BTTS No
2.48
Clean Sheet
12%
8.45
32%
3.10
Win to Nil
2%
43.62
19%
5.14
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.8 | 8.2 | 8.7 | 6.2 | 3.3 | 1.4 |
| 1 | 4.3 | 9.2 | 9.8 | 7.0 | 3.7 | 1.6 |
| 2 | 2.4 | 5.2 | 5.6 | 4.0 | 2.1 | 0.9 |
| 3 | 0.9 | 2.0 | 2.1 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cagliari vs Atalanta?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.4%.
How many goals are Cagliari and Atalanta expected to score?
The model projects 1.13 expected goals for Cagliari and 2.13 for Atalanta, a combined total of 3.26.
How confident is the prediction model for Cagliari vs Atalanta?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Cagliari's recent record stands at 1W 3D 7L from 11 games, a 0.55 PPG return, with D-W-L-L-L in the last five. The sample for Cagliari is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Atalanta, meanwhile, have gone 5W 4D 2L across 11 games — 1.73 PPG, with L-W-D-W-D in their last five. The sample for Atalanta is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Atalanta by 1.18 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Cagliari heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Cagliari have managed 1W 1D 3L from 5 games — 0.80 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Atalanta's away record stands at 4W 1D 0L across 5 trips, a 2.60 PPG haul. That's actually stronger than their 1.73 PPG overall record — Atalanta travel well.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Atalanta come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Cagliari are averaging 1.09 goals scored and 2.18 conceded per game recently; Atalanta are on 1.82 scored and 1.27 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Cagliari have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games; Atalanta in 82%.
Last 11 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cagliari
Blended
Atalanta
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cagliari and Atalanta in coming into this match?
Cagliari have gone 1W 3D 7L in their last 11 games (0.55 PPG), while Atalanta have gone 5W 4D 2L in their last 11 (1.73 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cagliari at home or Atalanta away?
Atalanta's away record (2.60 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cagliari at home: 0.80 PPG; Atalanta away: 2.60 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Cagliari and Atalanta runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 27 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Cagliari's record when hosting Atalanta specifically: 2W 0D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Cagliari
1
Draws
4
Atalanta
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cagliari and Atalanta?
From 8 meetings on record, Cagliari have won 3, Atalanta have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Cagliari and Atalanta last play each other?
They last met on 27 April 2026, when Cagliari 3-2 Atalanta.
Who has won more matches between Cagliari and Atalanta?
Atalanta have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Cagliari are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 60% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 40% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Atalanta are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 80% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Cagliari at 80%, Atalanta at 80%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 60% for Cagliari and 80% for Atalanta. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 60% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cagliari home games / Atalanta away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cagliari play Atalanta?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 80% of Cagliari's games and 80% of Atalanta's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Cagliari vs Atalanta usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Cagliari's matches and 80% of Atalanta's.
Do Cagliari and Atalanta tend to score early?
Cagliari have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Atalanta in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Atalanta edge out Cagliari 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Atalanta beat Cagliari 1-2 at Unipol Domus, Regular Season - 12, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cagliari 1.13 xG and Atalanta 2.13 xG, a combined 3.26. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cagliari attack 0.90 / defence 1.35 against Atalanta attack 1.16 / defence 0.99, drawn from 11/11 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cagliari 19% | Draw 20% | Atalanta 60%, with Atalanta to win its most likely call at 60%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 68% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cagliari 64%, Atalanta 73%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 73%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cagliari's trading profile (11 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Atalanta's trading profile (11 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 82% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Atalanta arrived the stronger side — 1.73 PPG against 0.55. Form held, and they took the win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.