Cagliari 0-0 AS Roma – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Cagliari at 37%, yet in-form AS Roma provide a compelling counter-argument — this Cagliari vs AS Roma fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Fixture Analysis

Cagliari welcome AS Roma to Unipol Domus in Serie A (matchday 1). Kick-off is Sunday 18 August 2024 at 20:45 UK time.

Recent Form

Across their last 10 games, Cagliari have gone 2W 4D 4L — a 1.00 PPG return. Last five: L D L W L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

Cagliari at home: 3W 4D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 100% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

AS Roma — last 10 games: 4W 3D 3L — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D D L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

AS Roma's form when playing away from home: 4W 3D 3L across their last 10 road games (1.50 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

Form points away from home here. AS Roma's 1.50 PPG return is 0.50 points per game ahead of Cagliari's 1.00 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.

Both teams have scored in at least 80% of each side's games (from Cagliari's last 10 home games and AS Roma's last 10 away games). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.

Head to Head

AS Roma have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 4 of the 4 H2H matches we hold against 0 for Cagliari.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 4 H2H matches in our data averaged 3.2 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 5 Feb 2024, ended Cagliari 0–4 AS Roma — a AS Roma win.

The H2H data backs the away side. AS Roma have won 4 of 4 H2H matches, and at 3.2 goals per game the goals market also points upward — the away win and Over 2.5 combination has a head-to-head case.

In-Play Data

Cagliari trading profile (last 38 games, 19 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 79% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; of the 6 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 83%; of the 18 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 28%; BTTS occurs in 84% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (home games).

AS Roma trading profile (last 38 games, 19 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 63% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; of the 10 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 30%; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (away games).

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Cagliari 66% and AS Roma 63% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cagliari 58% | AS Roma 60%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Cagliari surrender their half-time lead 83% of the time, while AS Roma have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 30% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Cagliari 1.51 xG and AS Roma 1.42 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cagliari attack 1.054 / defence 1.119 | AS Roma attack 1.074 / defence 1.013. League average goals — home 1.413 / away 1.183. Data: built from Cagliari's last 38 games and AS Roma's last 38. Some of those games are older results, so treat these probabilities as directional rather than precise.

Result probabilities: Cagliari 37% | Draw 30% | AS Roma 33%. Fair-value odds: Cagliari 2.69 | Draw 3.37 | AS Roma 3.01. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS Yes probability 62% | Total xG 2.93. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.93 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% — both xG figures (1.51 / 1.42) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Cagliari as the most likely outcome at 37% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form AS Roma (1.50 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Cagliari offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.93 combined xG gives a 56% probability to Over 2.5 — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Cagliari's last 10 home games and AS Roma's last 10 away games) averaging 3.3 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.2 goals per game across 4 H2H matches.

Poisson assigns a 62% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Cagliari 100% (last 10 home games) | AS Roma 80% (last 10 away games).

The Poisson model's sample (Cagliari 38 games, AS Roma 38) includes some older results, so its projections carry extra uncertainty — weight recent form and the odds accordingly.

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