Bologna 1-0 Udinese – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Udinese at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Bologna vs Udinese fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Udinese make the trip to Stadio Renato Dall'Ara to face Bologna in Serie A, Regular Season - 26. The match kicks off on Monday 23 February 2026 at 19:45 UTC.
Current Form
Bologna's overall Serie A record this term: 2W 2D 6L from 10 games (0.80 PPG). Last five: L L L L W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Bologna, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Bologna's home record at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara: 2W 2D 6L from 10 Serie A appearances (0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Udinese (all games): 3W 2D 5L across 10 Serie A outings this term — 1.10 points per game. Last five: L W W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Udinese, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Serie A this season, Udinese have posted 3W 1D 6L from 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.80 PPG for Bologna against 1.10 for Udinese. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Bologna lead 3W to 1W over the last 9 encounters, with 5 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 22 Nov 2025, ended 3–0 with Bologna winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Bologna — key trading statistics (63 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 55% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 84% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (home games).
Udinese — key trading statistics (63 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bologna 56% versus Udinese 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bologna 52% | Udinese 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bologna 1.18 xG and Udinese 1.38 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bologna attack 0.761 / defence 1.127 | Udinese attack 1.018 / defence 1.268. League average goals — home 1.225 / away 1.206. Bologna's attack strength of 0.761 is below the league average — the 1.18 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Udinese bring a strong defensive rating of 1.268 — this is suppressing Bologna's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 63 Bologna games / 63 Udinese games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bologna 32% | Draw 26% | Udinese 42%. Fair-value odds: Bologna 3.12 | Draw 3.85 | Udinese 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.57. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.57 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Udinese are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Udinese if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.57 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 47% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Bologna 30% | Udinese 70%.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bologna vs Udinese | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Stadio Renato Dall'Ara • Kick-off: Monday 23 Feb 2026, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bologna 32% | Draw 26% | Udinese 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 52% | xG Bologna 1.18 / Udinese 1.38 • Poisson strength factors: Bologna attack 0.761 / def 1.127 | Udinese attack 1.018 / def 1.268 | league avg home 1.225 / away 1.206 • Poisson stance: Udinese (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.18
Bologna xG
Expected Goals
1.38
Udinese xG
52%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bologna vs Udinese kick off?
Bologna vs Udinese kicked off at 19:45 on Monday 23 February 2026 at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara.
What was the final score in Bologna vs Udinese?
Bologna 1 - 0 Udinese.
Where is Bologna vs Udinese being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara.
What competition is Bologna vs Udinese part of?
Bologna vs Udinese is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Bologna vs Udinese?
Our statistical model gives Bologna a 32% chance of winning, Udinese a 42% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Udinese the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bologna vs Udinese?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Bologna and Udinese will score (BTTS).
Will Bologna vs Udinese have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bologna and Udinese?
Record (9 meetings): Bologna 3W | Draws 5 | Udinese 1W.
What form are Bologna and Udinese in?
Bologna (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-L-L-W. Udinese (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Bologna's attack rating (0.76) and Udinese's defence rating (1.27), the model arrives at 1.18 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Udinese's attack (1.02x) against Bologna's defence (1.13x) — and the away total comes out at 1.38.
These ratings are built from 63/63 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.3%), 0-1 (9.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Udinese Win
32%
3.12
26%
3.78
42%
2.41
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.6%
Away win
1 – 0
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.18
Bologna xG
Total xG
2.57
1.38
Udinese xG
3.12
32%
Home win
3.78
26%
Draw
2.41
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.92
48%
BTTS No
2.08
Clean Sheet
25%
3.99
31%
3.26
Win to Nil
8%
12.46
13%
7.85
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.7 | 10.6 | 7.4 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.1 | 12.6 | 8.7 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.4 | 7.4 | 5.1 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 2.9 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bologna vs Udinese?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Bologna and Udinese expected to score?
The model projects 1.18 expected goals for Bologna and 1.38 for Udinese, a combined total of 2.57.
How confident is the prediction model for Bologna vs Udinese?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 63 outings, Bologna have picked up 1.51 PPG on a 25W 20D 18L record — L-L-L-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for Bologna is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Udinese's form line: 21W 13D 29L from 63 games, 1.21 PPG, last five L-W-W-L-L. The sample for Udinese is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.51 PPG for Bologna against 1.21 for Udinese. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Bologna have posted 1.65 PPG from 31 outings (14W 9D 8L).
On the road, Udinese have gone 10W 6D 15L from 31 away games — 1.16 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bologna come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Bologna are averaging 1.44 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game recently; Udinese are on 1.10 scored and 1.49 conceded.
Last 63 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bologna
Blended
Udinese
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bologna and Udinese in coming into this match?
Bologna have gone 25W 20D 18L in their last 63 games (1.51 PPG), while Udinese have gone 21W 13D 29L in their last 63 (1.21 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bologna at home or Udinese away?
Bologna's home record (1.65 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bologna at home: 1.65 PPG; Udinese away: 1.16 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 23 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Bologna have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Bologna won 3-0 on 2 Apr 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Bologna have gone 2W 3D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Udinese — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Bologna
5
Draws
1
Udinese
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bologna and Udinese?
From 10 meetings on record, Bologna have won 4, Udinese have won 1, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Bologna and Udinese last play each other?
They last met on 23 February 2026, when Bologna 1-0 Udinese.
Who has won more matches between Bologna and Udinese?
Bologna have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Bologna see a goal before the break in 55% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Udinese are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bologna 52%, Udinese 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 45% (Bologna) and 52% (Udinese).
On the defensive side: Bologna keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Udinese in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bologna home games / Udinese away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bologna play Udinese?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 52% of Bologna's games and 64% of Udinese's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Bologna vs Udinese usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 45% of Bologna's recent games and 52% of Udinese's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bologna and Udinese tend to score early?
Bologna have had a goal before half-time in 55% of their recent matches, Udinese in 84% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Bologna defy the odds to beat Udinese 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bologna beat Udinese 1-0 at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara, Regular Season - 26, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bologna 1.18 xG and Udinese 1.38 xG, a combined 2.57. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Udinese landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bologna attack 0.76 / defence 1.13 against Udinese attack 1.02 / defence 1.27, drawn from 63/63 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bologna 32% | Draw 26% | Udinese 42%, with Udinese to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual Bologna win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 73% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bologna 52%, Udinese 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bologna's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.
Udinese's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Bologna 1.51 PPG, Udinese 1.21 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Bologna win broke the near-deadlock. Bologna (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.03 average — tighter than their form line. Udinese (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.10 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.