Bologna vs Parma – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Bologna at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Bologna vs Parma fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie A encounter, Regular Season - 38 sees Parma travel to to take on Bologna. The game is scheduled for Sunday 30 May 2027, 16:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Bologna stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Serie A matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D L D W L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Bologna have played only a handful of Serie A games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Bologna's home record at : 1W 4D 5L from 10 Serie A appearances (0.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.70 lags behind their overall 1.20 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at this season.
Across all Serie A games this season, Parma have recorded 2W 1D 7L from 10 outings — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L D L W L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Parma have played only a handful of Serie A games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Parma have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Bologna are in the better shape of the two on current Serie A data — 0.50 PPG ahead (1.20 vs 0.70). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 4 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Bologna, 2 for Parma and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.8 per contest from 4 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 8 Feb 2026, ended 0–1 with Parma winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.8 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Bologna trading profile (44 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games).
Parma trading profile (44 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 32% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (away games); they fail to score in 43% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bologna 48% versus Parma 41%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Bologna 46% | Parma 32%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bologna 1.35 xG and Parma 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bologna attack 0.855 / defence 1.155 | Parma attack 0.727 / defence 1.093. League average goals — home 1.444 / away 1.240. Data: 45 Bologna games / 44 Parma games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bologna 44% | Draw 27% | Parma 29%. Fair-value odds: Bologna 2.27 | Draw 3.70 | Parma 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.39. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.39 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Bologna are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Bologna offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.39 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 43% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by H2H averaging 1.8 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 48%. Form rates corroborate: Bologna 50% | Parma 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bologna vs Parma | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 38 | Venue: • Kick-off: Sunday 30 May 2027, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bologna 44% | Draw 27% | Parma 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 48% | xG Bologna 1.35 / Parma 1.04 • Poisson strength factors: Bologna attack 0.855 / def 1.155 | Parma attack 0.727 / def 1.093 | league avg home 1.444 / away 1.240 • Poisson stance: Bologna (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.35
Bologna xG
Expected Goals
1.04
Parma xG
48%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bologna vs Parma kick off?
Bologna vs Parma is scheduled to kick off at 16:30 on Sunday 30 May 2027.
What competition is Bologna vs Parma part of?
Bologna vs Parma is a Regular Season - 38 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Bologna vs Parma?
Our statistical model gives Bologna a 44% chance of winning, Parma a 29% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Bologna the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bologna vs Parma?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Bologna and Parma will score (BTTS).
Will Bologna vs Parma have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bologna and Parma?
Record (4 meetings): Bologna 1W | Draws 1 | Parma 2W.
What form are Bologna and Parma in?
Bologna (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-L-D-W-L. Parma (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-D-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Bologna's attacking strength (0.85x league average) is weighed against Parma's defensive record (1.09x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.35. The same calculation in reverse, Parma's attack versus Bologna's defence, projects 1.04 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 45/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.5%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.8%), 1-0 (10.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bologna Win
44%
2.28
27%
3.66
29%
3.46
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.3%
Home win
0 – 1
9.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.35
Bologna xG
Total xG
2.39
1.04
Parma xG
2.28
44%
Home win
3.66
27%
Draw
3.46
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.09
52%
BTTS No
1.92
Clean Sheet
35%
2.83
26%
3.85
Win to Nil
15%
6.48
8%
13.33
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.2 | 9.5 | 5.0 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.3 | 12.9 | 6.7 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.3 | 8.7 | 4.5 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 3.9 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bologna vs Parma?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Bologna and Parma expected to score?
The model projects 1.35 expected goals for Bologna and 1.04 for Parma, a combined total of 2.39.
How confident is the prediction model for Bologna vs Parma?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 44 outings, Bologna have picked up 1.39 PPG on a 17W 10D 17L record — D-L-D-W-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Bologna, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Parma's form line: 12W 13D 19L from 44 games, 1.11 PPG, last five L-D-L-W-L. It's still early in the season for Parma, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Bologna on 1.39 PPG, Parma on 1.11. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Bologna have posted 0.95 PPG from 22 outings (5W 6D 11L). That actually lags their 1.39 PPG overall record — home advantage hasn't been translating into results for them lately.
On the road, Parma have gone 6W 6D 10L from 22 away games — 1.09 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Bologna are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game recently; Parma are on 0.73 scored and 1.27 conceded.
Last 44 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bologna
Early Season
Parma
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bologna and Parma in coming into this match?
Bologna have gone 17W 10D 17L in their last 44 games (1.39 PPG), while Parma have gone 12W 13D 19L in their last 44 (1.11 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bologna at home or Parma away?
Parma's away record (1.09 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bologna at home: 0.95 PPG; Parma away: 1.09 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 8 February 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Bologna's record when hosting Parma specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Bologna
1
Draws
2
Parma
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bologna and Parma?
From 4 meetings on record, Bologna have won 1, Parma have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Bologna and Parma last play each other?
They last met on 8 February 2026, when Bologna 0-1 Parma.
Who has won more matches between Bologna and Parma?
Parma have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Bologna see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Parma see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bologna 41%, Parma 32% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 41% (Bologna) and 32% (Parma).
On the defensive side: Parma in 36%; Bologna have failed to score in 41% of games; Parma in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bologna home games / Parma away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bologna play Parma?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 41% of Bologna's recent matches and 32% of Parma's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Bologna vs Parma usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 41% of Bologna's recent games and 32% of Parma's, pointing to a tighter contest.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.