Bologna 0-1 Parma – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Parma at 35% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Bologna vs Parma encounter.

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Analysis & Preview

Parma travel to Stadio Renato Dall'Ara to take on Bologna in Serie A (matchday 24). The game is scheduled for Sunday 8 February 2026 at 11:30 UK time.

Form Analysis

Looking at their last 10 matches, Bologna stand at 1W 3D 6L — 0.60 PPG. Last five: D W L L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

Bologna's home record over their last 10 home games: 3W 2D 5L (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.60 — Bologna are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.

Across their last 10 games, Parma have recorded 3W 3D 4L — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W D D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.

On the road, Parma have gone 3W 4D 3L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.

The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Parma are 0.60 PPG ahead (1.20 vs 0.60), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.

H2H

There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 3 H2H matches, Bologna have won 1, Parma 1, with 1 draw — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.

The 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 2 Nov 2025, ended Bologna 3–1 Parma — a Bologna win.

The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.

In-Play Data

Bologna trading profile (last 61 games, 30 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 57% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; of the 17 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 35%; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games).

Parma trading profile (last 61 games, 30 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 60% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 52% of the time; of the 12 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 42%; of the 21 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 38%; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bologna 56% versus Parma 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bologna 52% | Parma 48%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Bologna surrender their half-time lead 29% of the time, while Parma have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 38% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle. Note also that Parma surrender HT leads in 42% of cases while Bologna recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 35% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Bologna 1.06 xG and Parma 1.08 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bologna attack 0.809 / defence 1.159 | Parma attack 0.796 / defence 1.060. League average goals — home 1.238 / away 1.174. Parma's attack rating of 0.796 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.08. Data: built from Bologna's last 61 games and Parma's last 61.

Result probabilities: Bologna 34% | Draw 30% | Parma 35%. Fair-value odds: Bologna 2.91 | Draw 3.31 | Parma 2.82. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS Yes probability 44% | Total xG 2.14. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.14 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 56% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Parma are the pick at 35% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Parma offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

Poisson projects 2.14 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 64% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Bologna's last 10 home games and Parma's last 10 away games) averaging 2.1 goals per game.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 56%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Bologna 40% (last 10 home games) | Parma 40% (last 10 away games).

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