Bologna 1-1 Napoli – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Bologna at 45% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Bologna vs Napoli encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadio Renato Dall'Ara plays host to Bologna versus Napoli in Serie A (matchday 31). Kick-off: Monday 7 April 2025 at 20:45 UK time.
Form
Bologna (all games): 7W 2D 1L across their last 10 — 2.30 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 0.80 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Bologna's form when playing at home: 8W 1D 1L across their last 10 home games (2.50 PPG). They are averaging 2.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Napoli's record over their last 10 games: 4W 5D 1L (1.70 PPG). Last five: L D W D W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.20. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.
On the road, Napoli have gone 5W 4D 1L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The points-per-game gap of 0.60 in Bologna's favour (2.30 vs 1.70) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (from Bologna's last 10 home games and Napoli's last 10 away games) — Bologna have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Napoli in 70%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated the 6 H2H matches in our data: 1 wins for Bologna, 3 for Napoli and 2 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral.
The 6 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 25 Aug 2024, ended Bologna 0–3 Napoli — a Napoli win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading Data
Bologna goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 68 games, 34 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; of the 17 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 59%; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games).
Napoli goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 68 games, 34 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; of the 16 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 56%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bologna 50% versus Napoli 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bologna 48% | Napoli 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bologna 1.62 xG and Napoli 1.25 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bologna attack 1.484 / defence 0.896 | Napoli attack 1.194 / defence 0.860. League average goals — home 1.271 / away 1.164. Bologna carry an above-average attack rating of 1.484 — their 1.62 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Data: built from Bologna's last 68 games and Napoli's last 68.
Result probabilities: Bologna 45% | Draw 27% | Napoli 28%. Fair-value odds: Bologna 2.23 | Draw 3.66 | Napoli 3.58. Bologna hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS Yes probability 59% | Total xG 2.87. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.87 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 59% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Bologna at 45% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Bologna if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.87 combined xG gives a 55% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Bologna's last 10 home games and Napoli's last 10 away games) averaging 3.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 59%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Bologna 60% (last 10 home games) | Napoli 70% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bologna vs Napoli | Competition: Serie A, matchday 31 | Venue: Stadio Renato Dall'Ara • Kick-off: Monday 7 April 2025 at 20:45 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bologna 45% | Draw 27% | Napoli 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% (Under 45%) | BTTS Yes 59% (No 41%) | xG Bologna 1.62 / Napoli 1.25 • Poisson strength factors: Bologna attack 1.484 / def 0.896 | Napoli attack 1.194 / def 0.860 | league avg home 1.271 / away 1.164 • Poisson stance: Bologna (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.62
Bologna xG
Expected Goals
1.25
Napoli xG
59%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Bologna vs Napoli FAQs
What time does Bologna vs Napoli kick off?
Bologna vs Napoli kicked off at 20:45 UK time on Monday 7 April 2025 at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara.
What was the final score in Bologna vs Napoli?
Bologna 1 - 1 Napoli.
Where is Bologna vs Napoli being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara.
What competition is Bologna vs Napoli part of?
Bologna vs Napoli is a Serie A fixture (matchday 31) (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Bologna vs Napoli?
Our statistical model gives Bologna a 45% chance of winning, Napoli a 28% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Bologna the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bologna vs Napoli?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Bologna and Napoli will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Bologna vs Napoli have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Bologna's attack at 1.48x the league average against Napoli's defence at 0.86x — combine the two and it projects 1.62 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Napoli's attack (1.19x) against Bologna's defence (0.90x) — and the away total comes out at 1.25.
These ratings are built from Bologna's last 68 games and Napoli's last 68 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 1-0 (7.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bologna Win
45%
2.23
27%
3.66
28%
3.58
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
1 – 0
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.62
Bologna xG
Total xG
2.87
1.25
Napoli xG
2.23
45%
Home win
3.66
27%
Draw
3.58
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.71
41%
BTTS No
2.41
Clean Sheet
29%
3.47
20%
5.06
Win to Nil
13%
7.76
6%
18.13
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 7.1 | 4.4 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.2 | 11.5 | 7.1 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 9.3 | 5.8 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 5.0 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 2.0 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Bologna vs Napoli Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Bologna vs Napoli?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Bologna and Napoli expected to score?
The model projects 1.62 expected goals for Bologna and 1.25 for Napoli, a combined total of 2.87.
How confident is the prediction model for Bologna vs Napoli?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Bologna come into this having played 68 games, going 33W 25D 10L for 1.82 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-W-W.
On the other side, Napoli sit at 1.72 PPG from 68 outings (32W 21D 15L), a run that reads L-D-W-D-W across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.82 PPG for Bologna against 1.72 for Napoli. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Bologna's home form reads 21W 10D 3L across their last 34 home games, a 2.15 PPG return.
Away from home, Napoli have taken 1.68 points per game from their last 34 away games (15W 12D 7L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bologna come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Bologna are averaging 1.53 goals scored and 0.97 conceded per game recently; Napoli are on 1.50 scored and 1.06 conceded.
Defensively: Bologna have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 68 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bologna
Current Season
Napoli
Current Season
Bologna (Home) vs Napoli (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Bologna
Current Season
Napoli
Current Season
❓ Bologna vs Napoli Form FAQs
What form are Bologna and Napoli in coming into this match?
Bologna have gone 33W 25D 10L in their last 68 games (1.82 PPG), while Napoli have gone 32W 21D 15L in their last 68 (1.72 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bologna at home or Napoli away?
Bologna's home record (2.15 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bologna at home: 2.15 PPG; Napoli away: 1.68 PPG.
Have Bologna or Napoli been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bologna have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, Napoli in 29%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 10 H2H matches between Bologna and Napoli, the earliest from January 2022. All of them came in Serie A. The most recent was as recently as 13 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Napoli won Napoli 3-0 Bologna on 25 Aug 2024, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Bologna have gone 1W 3D 1L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Napoli — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Bologna
3
Draws
4
Napoli
Recent Meetings
❓ Bologna vs Napoli H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Bologna and Napoli?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Bologna have won 3, Napoli have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Bologna and Napoli last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 13 September 2026: Napoli 1-0 Bologna.
Who has won more matches between Bologna and Napoli?
Napoli have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Bologna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 67% of those situations.
Napoli are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 62% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bologna 44%, Napoli 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Bologna) and 50% (Napoli).
On the defensive side: Bologna keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Napoli in 32%; Napoli in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bologna home games / Napoli away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Bologna vs Napoli Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Bologna and Napoli matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Bologna's recent matches and 50% of Napoli's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Bologna and Napoli matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Bologna's recent games and 50% of Napoli's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bologna and Napoli matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 68% of Bologna's recent matches and 71% of Napoli's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Bologna and Napoli share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara, Regular Season - 31, as Bologna and Napoli drew 1-1 in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bologna 1.62 xG and Napoli 1.25 xG, a combined 2.87. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bologna attack 1.48 / defence 0.90 against Napoli attack 1.19 / defence 0.86, drawn from 68/68 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bologna 45% | Draw 27% | Napoli 28%, with Bologna to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bologna 48%, Napoli 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bologna's trading profile (68 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Napoli's trading profile (68 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Bologna 1.82 PPG, Napoli 1.72 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Bologna (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.82 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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