Bologna 3-1 Monza – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Bologna at 46% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Bologna vs Monza encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie A clash, Regular Season - 21 as Bologna welcome Monza to Stadio Renato Dall'Ara. Kick-off is set for Saturday 18 January 2025 at 14:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie A games this season, Bologna have gone 5W 3D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.80 PPG return. Last five: W W L D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Bologna, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Bologna at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara this season: 3W 6D 1L from 10 home games — 1.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Monza — All Games: 1W 2D 7L from 10 Serie A fixtures this season — 0.50 PPG. Last five: L L L L W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Monza, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Monza's form when playing away from home: 1W 4D 5L across 10 road games this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Bologna carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.30 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.80 vs 0.50. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Bologna, 1 for Monza and 2 shared spoils from 5 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.4 per contest from 5 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 22 Sep 2024, ended 2–1 with Bologna winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.4 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Bologna trading profile (57 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 63% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
Monza trading profile (57 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bologna 49% versus Monza 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bologna 47% | Monza 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bologna 1.47 xG and Monza 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bologna attack 1.048 / defence 0.952 | Monza attack 0.833 / defence 1.086. League average goals — home 1.292 / away 1.304. Data: 57 Bologna games / 58 Monza games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bologna 46% | Draw 29% | Monza 25%. Fair-value odds: Bologna 2.17 | Draw 3.45 | Monza 4.00. Bologna hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.51. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.51 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Bologna as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Bologna offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.51 combined xG gives a 46% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by H2H averaging 1.4 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Bologna 60% | Monza 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bologna vs Monza | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Stadio Renato Dall'Ara • Kick-off: Saturday 18 Jan 2025, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bologna 46% | Draw 29% | Monza 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 51% | xG Bologna 1.47 / Monza 1.03 • Poisson strength factors: Bologna attack 1.048 / def 0.952 | Monza attack 0.833 / def 1.086 | league avg home 1.292 / away 1.304 • Poisson stance: Bologna (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.47
Bologna xG
Expected Goals
1.03
Monza xG
51%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bologna vs Monza kick off?
Bologna vs Monza kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 18 January 2025 at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara.
What was the final score in Bologna vs Monza?
Bologna 3 - 1 Monza.
Where is Bologna vs Monza being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara.
What competition is Bologna vs Monza part of?
Bologna vs Monza is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Bologna vs Monza?
Our statistical model gives Bologna a 46% chance of winning, Monza a 25% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Bologna the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bologna vs Monza?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Bologna and Monza will score (BTTS).
Will Bologna vs Monza have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bologna and Monza?
Record (5 meetings): Bologna 2W | Draws 2 | Monza 1W.
What form are Bologna and Monza in?
Bologna (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-W-L-D-D. Monza (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Bologna's attacking strength (1.05x league average) is weighed against Monza's defensive record (1.09x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.47. The same calculation in reverse, Monza's attack versus Bologna's defence, projects 1.03 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 57/58 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.0%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.4%), 0-0 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bologna Win
46%
2.19
29%
3.43
25%
3.98
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.0%
Home win
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.47
Bologna xG
Total xG
2.51
1.03
Monza xG
2.19
46%
Home win
3.43
29%
Draw
3.98
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.95
49%
BTTS No
2.05
Clean Sheet
36%
2.82
23%
4.35
Win to Nil
16%
6.16
6%
17.34
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.2 | 8.4 | 4.4 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.0 | 12.4 | 6.4 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.8 | 9.1 | 4.7 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 4.5 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bologna vs Monza?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Bologna and Monza expected to score?
The model projects 1.47 expected goals for Bologna and 1.03 for Monza, a combined total of 2.51.
How confident is the prediction model for Bologna vs Monza?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Bologna come into this having played 57 games, going 25W 23D 9L for 1.72 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-D-D. The sample for Bologna is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Monza sit at 1.02 PPG from 57 outings (13W 19D 25L), a run that reads L-L-L-L-W across their last five. The sample for Monza is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Bologna carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.70 PPG clear of Monza — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Bologna's home form reads 15W 10D 2L across 27 games on their own ground, a 2.04 PPG return.
Away from home, Monza have taken 1.04 points per game from 27 outings (6W 10D 11L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bologna come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Bologna are averaging 1.46 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Monza are on 1.02 scored and 1.35 conceded.
Defensively: Bologna have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 57 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bologna
Blended
Monza
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bologna and Monza in coming into this match?
Bologna have gone 25W 23D 9L in their last 57 games (1.72 PPG), while Monza have gone 13W 19D 25L in their last 57 (1.02 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bologna at home or Monza away?
Bologna's home record (2.04 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bologna at home: 2.04 PPG; Monza away: 1.04 PPG.
Have Bologna or Monza been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bologna have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, Monza in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 18 January 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Bologna have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
Bologna's record when hosting Monza specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Bologna
2
Draws
1
Monza
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bologna and Monza?
From 6 meetings on record, Bologna have won 3, Monza have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Bologna and Monza last play each other?
They last met on 18 January 2025, when Bologna 3-1 Monza.
Who has won more matches between Bologna and Monza?
Bologna have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Bologna see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Monza see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bologna 41%, Monza 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 37% (Bologna) and 41% (Monza).
On the defensive side: Bologna keep a clean sheet in 56% of their matches; Monza in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bologna home games / Monza away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bologna play Monza?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 41% of Bologna's recent matches and 44% of Monza's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Bologna vs Monza usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 37% of Bologna's recent games and 41% of Monza's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Bologna cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Monza.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bologna beat Monza 3-1 at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara, Regular Season - 21, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bologna 1.47 xG and Monza 1.03 xG, a combined 2.51. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Bologna beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bologna attack 1.05 / defence 0.95 against Monza attack 0.83 / defence 1.09, drawn from 57/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bologna 46% | Draw 29% | Monza 25%, with Bologna to win its most likely call at 46%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. Over 3.5 was 24% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bologna 47%, Monza 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bologna's trading profile (57 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Monza's trading profile (57 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Bologna arrived the stronger side — 1.72 PPG against 1.02. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Bologna (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.67 average — above their attacking norm. Monza (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.30 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.