Bologna 2-1 Cagliari – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Bologna at 41%, yet in-form Cagliari provide a compelling counter-argument — this Bologna vs Cagliari fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadio Renato Dall'Ara plays host to Bologna versus Cagliari in Serie A, Regular Season - 3. Kick-off: Saturday 2 September 2023 at 17:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Bologna have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 2W 5D 3L. Last five: W D W L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Bologna have played only a handful of Serie A games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Bologna have posted 3W 5D 2L at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara — 1.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Cagliari's overall Serie A record this term: 6W 3D 1L from 10 games (2.10 PPG). Last five: D D W D L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 0.70. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Cagliari have played only a handful of Serie A games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Cagliari's away record: 4W 5D 1L from 10 road trips in Serie A this season (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 0.30 conceded per game. 8 away clean sheets from 10 games (80%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
On a straight form reading, Cagliari are the stronger side — 1.00 PPG clear of the hosts (2.10 vs 1.10). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Both sides have a clean-sheet tendency (using home/away splits) — Bologna have seen both teams score in just 30% of their matches, Cagliari in only 20%. BTTS No has clear statistical support from the form record of both squads.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: Bologna 1W, Cagliari 1W, 0D.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 11 Jan 2022, ended 1–2 with Cagliari winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Bologna half-time and goal-timing data (40 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (home games).
Cagliari half-time and goal-timing data (40 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 43% of the time; BTTS occurs in 37% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bologna 62% versus Cagliari 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bologna 50% | Cagliari 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bologna 1.11 xG and Cagliari 0.87 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bologna attack 0.868 / defence 0.966 | Cagliari attack 0.710 / defence 0.978. League average goals — home 1.310 / away 1.267. Data: 40 Bologna games / 2 Cagliari games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Bologna 41% | Draw 31% | Cagliari 28%. Fair-value odds: Bologna 2.44 | Draw 3.23 | Cagliari 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 1.98. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 1.98 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Bologna at 41% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Cagliari (2.10 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Bologna if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 1.98 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 32% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 1.6 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 39% on No. Form rates corroborate: Bologna 30% | Cagliari 20% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (2 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bologna vs Cagliari | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Stadio Renato Dall'Ara • Kick-off: Saturday 2 Sep 2023, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bologna 41% | Draw 31% | Cagliari 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 32% | BTTS 39% | xG Bologna 1.11 / Cagliari 0.87 • Poisson strength factors: Bologna attack 0.868 / def 0.966 | Cagliari attack 0.710 / def 0.978 | league avg home 1.310 / away 1.267 • Poisson stance: Bologna (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.11
Bologna xG
Expected Goals
0.87
Cagliari xG
39%
BTTS
59%
Over 1.5
32%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bologna vs Cagliari kick off?
Bologna vs Cagliari kicked off at 17:30 on Saturday 2 September 2023 at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara.
What was the final score in Bologna vs Cagliari?
Bologna 2 - 1 Cagliari.
Where is Bologna vs Cagliari being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara.
What competition is Bologna vs Cagliari part of?
Bologna vs Cagliari is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Bologna vs Cagliari?
Our statistical model gives Bologna a 41% chance of winning, Cagliari a 28% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Bologna the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bologna vs Cagliari?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Bologna and Cagliari will score (BTTS).
Will Bologna vs Cagliari have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 32%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bologna and Cagliari?
Record (2 meetings): Bologna 1W | Draws 0 | Cagliari 1W.
What form are Bologna and Cagliari in?
Bologna (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-D-W-L-D. Cagliari (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.70 | L5 D-D-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Bologna's attack at 0.87x the league average against Cagliari's defence at 0.98x — combine the two and it projects 1.11 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Cagliari's attack (0.71x) against Bologna's defence (0.97x) — and the away total comes out at 0.87.
The sample (40/2 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 15.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (15.1%), 1-0 (13.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bologna Win
41%
2.44
31%
3.26
28%
3.54
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.3%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.8%
Draw
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.11
Bologna xG
Total xG
1.98
0.87
Cagliari xG
2.44
41%
Home win
3.26
31%
Draw
3.54
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
59%
Over 1.5
1.69
41%
Under 1.5
2.44
32%
Over 2.5
3.12
68%
Under 2.5
1.47
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.56
61%
BTTS No
1.64
Clean Sheet
42%
2.39
33%
3.04
Win to Nil
17%
5.82
9%
10.77
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.8 | 12.0 | 5.2 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 15.3 | 13.3 | 5.8 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.5 | 7.4 | 3.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.2 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bologna vs Cagliari?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.5%.
How many goals are Bologna and Cagliari expected to score?
The model projects 1.11 expected goals for Bologna and 0.87 for Cagliari, a combined total of 1.98.
How confident is the prediction model for Bologna vs Cagliari?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Bologna's recent record stands at 14W 13D 13L from 40 games, a 1.38 PPG return, with W-D-W-L-D in the last five. It's still early in the season for Bologna, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Cagliari, meanwhile, have gone 15W 17D 8L across 40 games — 1.55 PPG, with D-D-W-D-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for Cagliari, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.38 PPG for Bologna against 1.55 for Cagliari. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Bologna have managed 7W 8D 4L from 19 games — 1.53 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Cagliari's away record stands at 4W 10D 5L across 19 trips, a 1.16 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Bologna are averaging 1.35 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game recently; Cagliari are on 1.27 scored and 0.92 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Bologna have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Defensively: Cagliari in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 40 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bologna
Early Season
Cagliari
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bologna and Cagliari in coming into this match?
Bologna have gone 14W 13D 13L in their last 40 games (1.38 PPG), while Cagliari have gone 15W 17D 8L in their last 40 (1.55 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bologna at home or Cagliari away?
Bologna's home record (1.53 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bologna at home: 1.53 PPG; Cagliari away: 1.16 PPG.
Have Bologna or Cagliari been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bologna have kept a clean sheet in 20% of their recent games, Cagliari in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 3 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Bologna have gone 3W 1D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Cagliari — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
5
Bologna
1
Draws
2
Cagliari
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bologna and Cagliari?
From 8 meetings on record, Bologna have won 5, Cagliari have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Bologna and Cagliari last play each other?
They last met on 3 May 2026, when Bologna 0-0 Cagliari.
Who has won more matches between Bologna and Cagliari?
Bologna have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Bologna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Cagliari see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bologna 47%, Cagliari 37% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 32% for Bologna and 37% for Cagliari.
On the defensive side: Bologna keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches; Cagliari in 53%; Bologna have failed to score in 26% of games; Cagliari in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bologna home games / Cagliari away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bologna play Cagliari?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Bologna's recent matches and 37% of Cagliari's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Bologna vs Cagliari usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 32% of Bologna's recent games and 37% of Cagliari's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bologna and Cagliari tend to score early?
Bologna have had a goal before half-time in 63% of their recent matches, Cagliari in 58% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Bologna edge out Cagliari 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bologna beat Cagliari 2-1 at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara, Regular Season - 3, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bologna 1.11 xG and Cagliari 0.87 xG, a combined 1.98. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Bologna beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bologna attack 0.87 / defence 0.97 against Cagliari attack 0.71 / defence 0.98, drawn from 40/2 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Bologna 41% | Draw 31% | Cagliari 28%, with Bologna to win its most likely call at 41%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 59% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bologna 50%, Cagliari 40%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bologna's trading profile (40 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Cagliari's trading profile (40 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Bologna 1.38 PPG, Cagliari 1.55 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Bologna win broke the near-deadlock. Cagliari (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.79 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.