Atalanta 2-2 Udinese – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Atalanta (61%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Atalanta face Udinese.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie A clash, Regular Season - 28 as Atalanta welcome Udinese to New Balance Arena. Kick-off is set for Saturday 7 March 2026 at 17:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Atalanta stand at 7W 2D 1L from 10 Serie A matches — 2.30 PPG. Last five: D W W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 0.50 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.50 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Atalanta, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Atalanta at New Balance Arena this season: 7W 1D 2L from 10 home games — 2.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Across all Serie A games this season, Udinese have recorded 4W 1D 5L from 10 outings — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W L L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Udinese, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Udinese have gone 3W 1D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Atalanta carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.00 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.30 vs 1.30. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 3 wins apiece for Atalanta, 1 for Udinese and 5 shared spoils from 9 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 1 Nov 2025, ended 0–1 with Udinese winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Atalanta trading profile (65 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games).
Udinese trading profile (65 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Atalanta 51% versus Udinese 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Atalanta 48% | Udinese 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Atalanta 1.88 xG and Udinese 0.87 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Atalanta attack 1.230 / defence 0.787 | Udinese attack 0.930 / defence 1.215. League average goals — home 1.257 / away 1.188. Udinese bring a strong defensive rating of 1.215 — this is suppressing Atalanta's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Atalanta's defence rating of 0.787 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 65 Atalanta games / 65 Udinese games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Atalanta 61% | Draw 22% | Udinese 17%. Fair-value odds: Atalanta 1.64 | Draw 4.55 | Udinese 5.88. The model has a clear lean to Atalanta (61%) — a 44pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.75. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.75 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Atalanta are the pick at 61% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.75 combined xG gives a 52% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 49% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Atalanta 40% | Udinese 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Atalanta vs Udinese | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: New Balance Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 7 Mar 2026, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Atalanta 61% | Draw 22% | Udinese 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 49% | xG Atalanta 1.88 / Udinese 0.87 • Poisson strength factors: Atalanta attack 1.230 / def 0.787 | Udinese attack 0.930 / def 1.215 | league avg home 1.257 / away 1.188 • Poisson stance: Atalanta (61%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.88
Atalanta xG
Expected Goals
0.87
Udinese xG
49%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Atalanta vs Udinese kick off?
Atalanta vs Udinese kicked off at 17:00 on Saturday 7 March 2026 at New Balance Arena.
What was the final score in Atalanta vs Udinese?
Atalanta 2 - 2 Udinese.
Where is Atalanta vs Udinese being played?
The match is being played at New Balance Arena.
What competition is Atalanta vs Udinese part of?
Atalanta vs Udinese is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Atalanta vs Udinese?
Our statistical model gives Atalanta a 61% chance of winning, Udinese a 17% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Atalanta the favourite.
Will both teams score in Atalanta vs Udinese?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Atalanta and Udinese will score (BTTS).
Will Atalanta vs Udinese have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Atalanta and Udinese?
Record (9 meetings): Atalanta 3W | Draws 5 | Udinese 1W.
What form are Atalanta and Udinese in?
Atalanta (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.50 | L5 D-W-W-W-L. Udinese (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Atalanta's attack at 1.23x the league average against Udinese's defence at 1.22x — combine the two and it projects 1.88 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Udinese's attack versus Atalanta's defence, projects 0.87 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 65/65 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-0 (11.3%), 1-0 (10.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Atalanta Win
61%
1.64
22%
4.55
17%
5.93
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.0%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.3%
Home win
1 – 1
10.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.88
Atalanta xG
Total xG
2.75
0.87
Udinese xG
1.64
61%
Home win
4.55
22%
Draw
5.93
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.03
51%
BTTS No
1.97
Clean Sheet
42%
2.38
15%
6.54
Win to Nil
26%
3.90
3%
38.77
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.4 | 5.6 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 12.0 | 10.5 | 4.5 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.3 | 9.8 | 4.3 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 7.1 | 6.2 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.3 | 2.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Atalanta vs Udinese?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.8%.
How many goals are Atalanta and Udinese expected to score?
The model projects 1.88 expected goals for Atalanta and 0.87 for Udinese, a combined total of 2.75.
How confident is the prediction model for Atalanta vs Udinese?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 61%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Atalanta's recent record stands at 34W 17D 14L from 65 games, a 1.83 PPG return, with D-W-W-W-L in the last five. The sample for Atalanta is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Udinese, meanwhile, have gone 22W 13D 30L across 65 games — 1.22 PPG, with W-L-L-L-W in their last five. The sample for Udinese is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Atalanta by 0.61 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Udinese heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Atalanta have managed 16W 9D 7L from 32 games — 1.78 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Udinese's away record stands at 10W 6D 16L across 32 trips, a 1.12 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Atalanta come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Atalanta are averaging 1.77 goals scored and 0.94 conceded per game recently; Udinese are on 1.11 scored and 1.46 conceded.
Defensively: Atalanta have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 65 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Atalanta
Blended
Udinese
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Atalanta and Udinese in coming into this match?
Atalanta have gone 34W 17D 14L in their last 65 games (1.83 PPG), while Udinese have gone 22W 13D 30L in their last 65 (1.22 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Atalanta at home or Udinese away?
Atalanta's home record (1.78 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Atalanta at home: 1.78 PPG; Udinese away: 1.12 PPG.
Have Atalanta or Udinese been keeping clean sheets recently?
Atalanta have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Udinese in 23%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 7 March 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 9 Jan 2022, when Atalanta won 2-6 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Atalanta's record when hosting Udinese specifically: 2W 3D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Atalanta
6
Draws
1
Udinese
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Atalanta and Udinese?
From 10 meetings on record, Atalanta have won 3, Udinese have won 1, and 6 have been drawn.
When did Atalanta and Udinese last play each other?
They last met on 7 March 2026, when Atalanta 2-2 Udinese.
Who has won more matches between Atalanta and Udinese?
Atalanta have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Atalanta are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Udinese are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Atalanta 59%, Udinese 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Atalanta) and 50% (Udinese).
On the defensive side: Udinese in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Atalanta home games / Udinese away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Atalanta play Udinese?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 59% of Atalanta's games and 62% of Udinese's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Atalanta vs Udinese usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Atalanta's recent games and 50% of Udinese's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Atalanta and Udinese tend to score early?
Atalanta have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Udinese in 81% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Atalanta and Udinese share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Atalanta and Udinese finished level at 2-2 at New Balance Arena, Regular Season - 28, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Atalanta 1.88 xG and Udinese 0.87 xG, a combined 2.75. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Udinese outscored their 0.87 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Atalanta attack 1.23 / defence 0.79 against Udinese attack 0.93 / defence 1.22, drawn from 65/65 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Atalanta 61% | Draw 22% | Udinese 17%, with Atalanta to win its most likely call at 61%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. Over 3.5 was 30% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Atalanta 48%, Udinese 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Atalanta's trading profile (65 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Udinese's trading profile (65 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Atalanta arrived the stronger side — 1.83 PPG against 1.22. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Atalanta (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.03 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Udinese (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.06 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.