Atalanta 2-0 Udinese – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Atalanta at 67%, yet other data sources diverge — this Atalanta vs Udinese fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie A clash, Regular Season - 22 as Atalanta welcome Udinese to Gewiss Stadium. Kick-off is set for Saturday 27 January 2024 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Atalanta stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 Serie A matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W L W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Atalanta, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Atalanta at Gewiss Stadium this season: 7W 1D 2L from 10 home games — 2.20 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Gewiss Stadium. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Atalanta are significantly better at Gewiss Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Across all Serie A games this season, Udinese have recorded 1W 5D 4L from 10 outings — 0.80 PPG. Last five: D W L D L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 2.10. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Udinese, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Udinese have gone 1W 6D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Atalanta carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.60 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.40 vs 0.80. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Atalanta, 0 for Udinese and 4 shared spoils from 5 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 5 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.2 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 12 Nov 2023, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.2 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Atalanta trading profile (58 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games).
Udinese trading profile (58 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 61% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Atalanta 53% versus Udinese 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Atalanta 52% | Udinese 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Atalanta 2.19 xG and Udinese 0.86 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Atalanta attack 1.380 / defence 0.845 | Udinese attack 0.929 / defence 1.114. League average goals — home 1.422 / away 1.097. Atalanta carry an above-average attack strength of 1.380 — their λ of 2.19 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 58 Atalanta games / 59 Udinese games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Atalanta 67% | Draw 20% | Udinese 13%. Fair-value odds: Atalanta 1.49 | Draw 5.00 | Udinese 7.69. The model has a clear lean to Atalanta (67%) — a 54pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 3.05. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.05 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Atalanta are the pick at 67% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.05 combined xG gives a 59% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by H2H averaging 3.2 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Atalanta 40% | Udinese 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Atalanta vs Udinese | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Gewiss Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 27 Jan 2024, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Atalanta 67% | Draw 20% | Udinese 13% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 52% | xG Atalanta 2.19 / Udinese 0.86 • Poisson strength factors: Atalanta attack 1.380 / def 0.845 | Udinese attack 0.929 / def 1.114 | league avg home 1.422 / away 1.097 • Poisson stance: Atalanta (67%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.19
Atalanta xG
Expected Goals
0.86
Udinese xG
52%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Atalanta vs Udinese kick off?
Atalanta vs Udinese kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 27 January 2024 at Gewiss Stadium.
What was the final score in Atalanta vs Udinese?
Atalanta 2 - 0 Udinese.
Where is Atalanta vs Udinese being played?
The match is being played at Gewiss Stadium.
What competition is Atalanta vs Udinese part of?
Atalanta vs Udinese is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Atalanta vs Udinese?
Our statistical model gives Atalanta a 67% chance of winning, Udinese a 13% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Atalanta the favourite.
Will both teams score in Atalanta vs Udinese?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Atalanta and Udinese will score (BTTS).
Will Atalanta vs Udinese have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Atalanta and Udinese?
Record (5 meetings): Atalanta 1W | Draws 4 | Udinese 0W.
What form are Atalanta and Udinese in?
Atalanta (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-W-D-W. Udinese (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 2.10 | L5 D-W-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Atalanta's attack at 1.38x the league average against Udinese's defence at 1.11x — combine the two and it projects 2.19 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Udinese's attack versus Atalanta's defence, projects 0.86 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 58/59 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-0 carries the highest individual probability at 11.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (10.1%), 2-1 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Atalanta Win
67%
1.49
20%
4.94
13%
7.80
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
11.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
10.4%
Home win
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.19
Atalanta xG
Total xG
3.05
0.86
Udinese xG
1.49
67%
Home win
4.94
20%
Draw
7.80
13%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.93
48%
BTTS No
2.08
Clean Sheet
42%
2.37
11%
8.90
Win to Nil
28%
3.53
1%
69.42
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.8 | 4.1 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 10.4 | 8.9 | 3.8 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.3 | 9.8 | 4.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 8.3 | 7.1 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 4.5 | 3.9 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 2.0 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Atalanta vs Udinese?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.3%.
How many goals are Atalanta and Udinese expected to score?
The model projects 2.19 expected goals for Atalanta and 0.86 for Udinese, a combined total of 3.05.
How confident is the prediction model for Atalanta vs Udinese?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 67%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Atalanta's recent record stands at 29W 10D 19L from 58 games, a 1.67 PPG return, with W-L-W-D-W in the last five. The sample for Atalanta is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Udinese, meanwhile, have gone 13W 25D 20L across 58 games — 1.10 PPG, with D-W-L-D-L in their last five. The sample for Udinese is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Atalanta by 0.57 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Udinese heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Atalanta have managed 17W 3D 8L from 28 games — 1.93 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Udinese's away record stands at 6W 10D 12L across 28 trips, a 1.00 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Atalanta come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Atalanta are averaging 1.74 goals scored and 1.19 conceded per game recently; Udinese are on 1.17 scored and 1.36 conceded.
Last 58 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Atalanta
Blended
Udinese
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Atalanta and Udinese in coming into this match?
Atalanta have gone 29W 10D 19L in their last 58 games (1.67 PPG), while Udinese have gone 13W 25D 20L in their last 58 (1.10 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Atalanta at home or Udinese away?
Atalanta's home record (1.93 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Atalanta at home: 1.93 PPG; Udinese away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Atalanta or Udinese been keeping clean sheets recently?
Atalanta have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Udinese in 26%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 7 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 9 Jan 2022, when Atalanta won 2-6 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Atalanta's record when hosting Udinese specifically: 2W 3D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Atalanta
6
Draws
1
Udinese
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Atalanta and Udinese?
From 10 meetings on record, Atalanta have won 3, Udinese have won 1, and 6 have been drawn.
When did Atalanta and Udinese last play each other?
They last met on 7 March 2026, when Atalanta 2-2 Udinese.
Who has won more matches between Atalanta and Udinese?
Atalanta have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Atalanta are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Udinese see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Atalanta 57%, Udinese 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 61% (Atalanta) and 43% (Udinese).
On the defensive side: Atalanta keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Udinese in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Atalanta home games / Udinese away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Atalanta play Udinese?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 57% of Atalanta's recent matches and 46% of Udinese's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Atalanta vs Udinese usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 61% of Atalanta's recent games and 43% of Udinese's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Atalanta and Udinese tend to score early?
Atalanta have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Udinese in 54% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Atalanta cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Udinese.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Atalanta beat Udinese 2-0 at Gewiss Stadium, Regular Season - 22, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Atalanta 2.19 xG and Udinese 0.86 xG, a combined 3.05. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Udinese landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Atalanta attack 1.38 / defence 0.84 against Udinese attack 0.93 / defence 1.11, drawn from 58/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Atalanta 67% | Draw 20% | Udinese 13%, with Atalanta to win its most likely call at 67%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Atalanta 52%, Udinese 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Atalanta's trading profile (58 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.
Udinese's trading profile (58 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Atalanta arrived the stronger side — 1.67 PPG against 1.10. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Atalanta (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.14 average — tighter than their form line. Udinese (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.82 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.