Atalanta 1-0 Bologna – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Atalanta at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Atalanta vs Bologna fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Atalanta host Bologna at New Balance Arena in Serie A, Regular Season - 2. Kick-off is scheduled for Monday 31 August 2026 at 18:45 UTC.
Form Guide
Atalanta — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Serie A outings this season, averaging 1.50 points per game. Last five: D W L D W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Atalanta have played only a handful of Serie A games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Atalanta's form when playing at home: 6W 2D 2L across 10 games at New Balance Arena this term (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — Atalanta are significantly better at New Balance Arena than their overall form suggests.
Across all Serie A games this season, Bologna have recorded 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D W W D L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. Bologna have played only a handful of Serie A games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Bologna away from home this season: 7W 1D 2L from 10 away games — 2.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 2.20 exceeds their overall 1.40 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Atalanta at 1.50 PPG versus Bologna's 1.40. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 9 previous meetings, Atalanta have won 4, Bologna 4, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 9 previous meetings have averaged 1.9 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 17 May 2026, ended 0–1 with Bologna winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Atalanta in-play and half-time data (39 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games).
Bologna in-play and half-time data (39 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Atalanta 54% versus Bologna 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Atalanta 38% | Bologna 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Atalanta 1.25 xG and Bologna 1.18 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Atalanta attack 1.066 / defence 0.908 | Bologna attack 1.075 / defence 0.980. League average goals — home 1.194 / away 1.204. Data: 39 Atalanta games / 39 Bologna games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Atalanta 38% | Draw 27% | Bologna 34%. Fair-value odds: Atalanta 2.63 | Draw 3.70 | Bologna 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.42. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.42 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Atalanta at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Atalanta offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.42 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 44% — reasonable confidence, supported by H2H averaging 1.9 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 49% on No. Form rates are neutral: Atalanta 40% | Bologna 60%.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (39 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Atalanta vs Bologna | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: New Balance Arena • Kick-off: Monday 31 Aug 2026, 18:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Atalanta 38% | Draw 27% | Bologna 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 49% | xG Atalanta 1.25 / Bologna 1.18 • Poisson strength factors: Atalanta attack 1.066 / def 0.908 | Bologna attack 1.075 / def 0.980 | league avg home 1.194 / away 1.204 • Poisson stance: Atalanta (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.25
Atalanta xG
Expected Goals
1.18
Bologna xG
49%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Atalanta vs Bologna kick off?
Atalanta vs Bologna kicked off at 18:45 on Monday 31 August 2026 at New Balance Arena.
What was the final score in Atalanta vs Bologna?
Atalanta 1 - 0 Bologna.
Where is Atalanta vs Bologna being played?
The match is being played at New Balance Arena.
What competition is Atalanta vs Bologna part of?
Atalanta vs Bologna is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Atalanta vs Bologna?
Our statistical model gives Atalanta a 38% chance of winning, Bologna a 34% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Atalanta the favourite.
Will both teams score in Atalanta vs Bologna?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Atalanta and Bologna will score (BTTS).
Will Atalanta vs Bologna have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Atalanta and Bologna?
Record (9 meetings): Atalanta 4W | Draws 1 | Bologna 4W.
What form are Atalanta and Bologna in?
Atalanta (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-L-D-W. Bologna (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-W-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Atalanta's attack rating (1.07) and Bologna's defence rating (0.98), the model arrives at 1.25 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Bologna's attack versus Atalanta's defence, projects 1.18 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (39/39 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.6%), 1-0 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Atalanta Win
38%
2.63
27%
3.64
34%
2.90
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.1%
Home win
0 – 1
10.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.25
Atalanta xG
Total xG
2.42
1.18
Bologna xG
2.63
38%
Home win
3.64
27%
Draw
2.90
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.03
51%
BTTS No
1.97
Clean Sheet
31%
3.24
29%
3.48
Win to Nil
12%
8.51
10%
10.10
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.9 | 10.4 | 6.1 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.1 | 13.0 | 7.6 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 8.1 | 4.8 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 3.4 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Atalanta vs Bologna?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Atalanta and Bologna expected to score?
The model projects 1.25 expected goals for Atalanta and 1.18 for Bologna, a combined total of 2.42.
How confident is the prediction model for Atalanta vs Bologna?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 39 outings, Atalanta have picked up 1.59 PPG on a 16W 14D 9L record — D-W-L-D-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Atalanta, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Bologna's form line: 16W 8D 15L from 39 games, 1.44 PPG, last five D-W-W-D-L. It's still early in the season for Bologna, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Atalanta on 1.59 PPG, Bologna on 1.44. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Atalanta have posted 1.84 PPG from 19 outings (10W 5D 4L).
On the road, Bologna have gone 10W 4D 5L from 19 away games — 1.79 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Atalanta are averaging 1.36 goals scored and 0.95 conceded per game recently; Bologna are on 1.26 scored and 1.21 conceded.
Last 39 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Atalanta
Early Season
Bologna
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Atalanta and Bologna in coming into this match?
Atalanta have gone 16W 14D 9L in their last 39 games (1.59 PPG), while Bologna have gone 16W 8D 15L in their last 39 (1.44 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Atalanta at home or Bologna away?
Atalanta's home record (1.84 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Atalanta at home: 1.84 PPG; Bologna away: 1.79 PPG.
Have Atalanta or Bologna been keeping clean sheets recently?
Atalanta have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Bologna in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Atalanta and Bologna runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to March 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. The two were last together as recently as 31 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
Atalanta's record when hosting Bologna specifically: 2W 0D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Atalanta
1
Draws
4
Bologna
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Atalanta and Bologna?
From 10 meetings on record, Atalanta have won 5, Bologna have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Atalanta and Bologna last play each other?
They last met on 31 August 2026, when Atalanta 1-0 Bologna.
Who has won more matches between Atalanta and Bologna?
Atalanta have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Atalanta are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Bologna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Atalanta 42%, Bologna 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Atalanta) and 53% (Bologna).
On the defensive side: Atalanta keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches; Atalanta have failed to score in 32% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Atalanta home games / Bologna away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Atalanta play Bologna?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Atalanta's recent matches and 58% of Bologna's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Atalanta vs Bologna usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Atalanta's recent games and 53% of Bologna's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Atalanta and Bologna tend to score early?
Atalanta have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Bologna in 63% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Atalanta edge out Bologna 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Atalanta beat Bologna 1-0 at New Balance Arena, Regular Season - 2, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Atalanta 1.25 xG and Bologna 1.18 xG, a combined 2.42. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Bologna landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Atalanta attack 1.07 / defence 0.91 against Bologna attack 1.07 / defence 0.98, drawn from 39/39 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Atalanta 38% | Draw 27% | Bologna 34%, with Atalanta to win its most likely call at 38%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 70% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Atalanta 38%, Bologna 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Atalanta's trading profile (39 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Bologna's trading profile (39 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Atalanta 1.59 PPG, Bologna 1.44 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Atalanta win broke the near-deadlock. Bologna (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.58 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.