Atalanta 1-4 AS Roma – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Atalanta at 48% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Atalanta vs AS Roma encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Gewiss Stadium plays host to Atalanta versus AS Roma in Serie A, Regular Season - 18. Kick-off: Saturday 18 December 2021 at 14:00 UTC.
Current Form
Atalanta's overall Serie A record this term: 8W 2D 0L from 10 games (2.60 PPG). Last five: W W W W W. They are averaging 2.70 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Atalanta, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Atalanta's form when playing at home: 3W 3D 2L across 8 games at Gewiss Stadium this term (1.50 PPG). They are averaging 2.12 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 75% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.50 lags behind their overall 2.60 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Gewiss Stadium this season.
AS Roma have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 4W 1D 5L. Last five: W W L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for AS Roma, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Serie A this season, AS Roma have posted 3W 0D 5L from 8 away outings — 1.12 PPG. Away from home they average 1.75 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
The points-per-game gap of 1.30 in Atalanta's favour (2.60 vs 1.30) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Trading
Atalanta half-time and goal-timing data (17 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; they lead at the break 53% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 47%.
AS Roma half-time and goal-timing data (17 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; they lead at the break 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Atalanta 76% versus AS Roma 41%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Atalanta 76% | AS Roma 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Atalanta 1.87 xG and AS Roma 1.44 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Atalanta attack 1.234 / defence 1.171 | AS Roma attack 0.857 / defence 1.199. League average goals — home 1.267 / away 1.433. Data: 17 Atalanta games / 17 AS Roma games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Atalanta 48% | Draw 22% | AS Roma 30%. Fair-value odds: Atalanta 2.08 | Draw 4.55 | AS Roma 3.33. Atalanta hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 65% | Total xG 3.31. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.31 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 65% reflects that both xG figures (1.87 / 1.44) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Atalanta at 48% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 22% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Atalanta if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.31 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 64% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 65% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Atalanta 75% | AS Roma 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Atalanta vs AS Roma | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Gewiss Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 18 Dec 2021, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Atalanta 48% | Draw 22% | AS Roma 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% | BTTS 65% | xG Atalanta 1.87 / AS Roma 1.44 • Poisson strength factors: Atalanta attack 1.234 / def 1.171 | AS Roma attack 0.857 / def 1.199 | league avg home 1.267 / away 1.433 • Poisson stance: Atalanta (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.87
Atalanta xG
Expected Goals
1.44
AS Roma xG
65%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Atalanta vs AS Roma kick off?
Atalanta vs AS Roma kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 18 December 2021 at Gewiss Stadium.
What was the final score in Atalanta vs AS Roma?
Atalanta 1 - 4 AS Roma.
Where is Atalanta vs AS Roma being played?
The match is being played at Gewiss Stadium.
What competition is Atalanta vs AS Roma part of?
Atalanta vs AS Roma is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Atalanta vs AS Roma?
Our statistical model gives Atalanta a 48% chance of winning, AS Roma a 30% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Atalanta the favourite.
Will both teams score in Atalanta vs AS Roma?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both Atalanta and AS Roma will score (BTTS).
Will Atalanta vs AS Roma have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%.
What is the head-to-head record between Atalanta and AS Roma?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Atalanta and AS Roma in?
Atalanta (all comps): 8W-2D-0L in 10 | 2.60 PPG | GF 2.70 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-W-W-W. AS Roma (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Atalanta's attacking strength (1.23x league average) is weighed against AS Roma's defensive record (1.20x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.87. Flip it around — AS Roma's attack (0.86x) against Atalanta's defence (1.17x) — and the away total comes out at 1.44.
These ratings are built from 17/17 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.2%), 1-2 (7.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Atalanta Win
48%
2.09
22%
4.46
30%
3.37
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.8%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
1 – 2
7.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.87
Atalanta xG
Total xG
3.31
1.44
AS Roma xG
2.09
48%
Home win
4.46
22%
Draw
3.37
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
42%
Over 3.5
2.38
58%
Under 3.5
1.72
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.55
35%
BTTS No
2.82
Clean Sheet
24%
4.21
15%
6.51
Win to Nil
11%
8.80
5%
21.95
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.6 | 5.2 | 3.8 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 6.8 | 9.8 | 7.1 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 9.2 | 6.6 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 5.7 | 4.1 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.7 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Atalanta vs AS Roma?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.1%.
How many goals are Atalanta and AS Roma expected to score?
The model projects 1.87 expected goals for Atalanta and 1.44 for AS Roma, a combined total of 3.31.
How confident is the prediction model for Atalanta vs AS Roma?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 17 outings, Atalanta have picked up 2.18 PPG on a 11W 4D 2L record — W-W-W-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Atalanta is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
AS Roma's form line: 9W 1D 7L from 17 games, 1.65 PPG, last five W-W-L-L-W. The sample for AS Roma is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Atalanta are the form team by 0.53 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against AS Roma.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Atalanta have posted 1.50 PPG from 8 outings (3W 3D 2L). That actually lags their 2.18 PPG overall record — home advantage hasn't been translating into results for them lately.
On the road, AS Roma have gone 3W 0D 5L from 8 away games — 1.12 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.65 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of AS Roma's season.
Attack vs Defence
Atalanta are averaging 2.18 goals scored and 1.18 conceded per game recently; AS Roma are on 1.53 scored and 1.12 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Atalanta have seen both teams score in 76% of their recent games.
Defensively: AS Roma in 41% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 17 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Atalanta
Blended
AS Roma
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Atalanta and AS Roma in coming into this match?
Atalanta have gone 11W 4D 2L in their last 17 games (2.18 PPG), while AS Roma have gone 9W 1D 7L in their last 17 (1.65 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Atalanta at home or AS Roma away?
Atalanta's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Atalanta at home: 1.50 PPG; AS Roma away: 1.12 PPG.
Have Atalanta or AS Roma been keeping clean sheets recently?
Atalanta have kept a clean sheet in 24% of their recent games, AS Roma in 41%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 18 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: AS Roma won 1-4 on 18 Dec 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Atalanta have gone 4W 0D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against AS Roma — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Atalanta
2
Draws
2
AS Roma
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Atalanta and AS Roma?
From 10 meetings on record, Atalanta have won 6, AS Roma have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Atalanta and AS Roma last play each other?
They last met on 18 April 2026, when AS Roma 1-1 Atalanta.
Who has won more matches between Atalanta and AS Roma?
Atalanta have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Atalanta are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
AS Roma are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Atalanta 75%, AS Roma 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 75% for Atalanta and 62% for AS Roma. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Atalanta home games / AS Roma away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Atalanta play AS Roma?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 75% of Atalanta's games and 50% of AS Roma's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Atalanta vs AS Roma usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 75% of Atalanta's matches and 62% of AS Roma's.
Do Atalanta and AS Roma tend to score early?
Atalanta have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, AS Roma in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant AS Roma run riot with a 1-4 hammering of Atalanta.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
AS Roma beat Atalanta 1-4 at Gewiss Stadium, Regular Season - 18, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Atalanta 1.87 xG and AS Roma 1.44 xG, a combined 3.31. The scoreboard read 1-4 for 5 actual goals. Atalanta fell 0.9 short of their projected output. AS Roma outscored their 1.44 projection by 2.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Atalanta attack 1.23 / defence 1.17 against AS Roma attack 0.86 / defence 1.20, drawn from 17/17 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Atalanta 48% | Draw 22% | AS Roma 30%, with Atalanta to win its most likely call at 48%. The actual AS Roma win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 42% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Atalanta 76%, AS Roma 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Atalanta's trading profile (17 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 76% of their matches — today it did.
AS Roma's trading profile (17 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Atalanta arrived the stronger side — 2.18 PPG against 1.65. Form was overturned, with AS Roma winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Atalanta (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.12 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.38 concession average — a leakier day than usual. AS Roma (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.75 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.