AS Roma 3-4 Sassuolo – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates AS Roma at 54% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this AS Roma vs Sassuolo encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie A encounter, Regular Season - 26 sees Sassuolo travel to Stadio Olimpico to take on AS Roma. The game is scheduled for Sunday 12 March 2023, 17:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, AS Roma stand at 6W 2D 2L from 10 Serie A matches — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W D W L W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 0.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for AS Roma, so this record blends games from this season and last.
AS Roma at Stadio Olimpico this season: 6W 1D 3L from 10 home games — 1.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Olimpico. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Across all Serie A games this season, Sassuolo have recorded 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W D L W W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.50. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Sassuolo, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sassuolo's form when playing away from home: 3W 2D 5L across 10 road games this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
AS Roma are in the better shape of the two on current Serie A data — 0.60 PPG ahead (2.00 vs 1.40). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for AS Roma, 0 for Sassuolo and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 3 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 9 Nov 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
AS Roma in-play and half-time data (63 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 32% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (home games).
Sassuolo in-play and half-time data (63 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 74% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — AS Roma 48% versus Sassuolo 67%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (AS Roma 44% | Sassuolo 70%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects AS Roma 1.45 xG and Sassuolo 0.75 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: AS Roma attack 1.015 / defence 0.597 | Sassuolo attack 1.129 / defence 1.131. League average goals — home 1.262 / away 1.116. AS Roma's defence rating of 0.597 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 63 AS Roma games / 63 Sassuolo games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: AS Roma 54% | Draw 27% | Sassuolo 19%. Fair-value odds: AS Roma 1.85 | Draw 3.70 | Sassuolo 5.26. AS Roma hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 2.20. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.20 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates AS Roma as the most likely outcome at 54% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on AS Roma offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.20 combined xG gives a 38% probability to Under 2.5 — marginal — conflicting signals, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 40% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: AS Roma 20% | Sassuolo 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: AS Roma vs Sassuolo | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Stadio Olimpico • Kick-off: Sunday 12 Mar 2023, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: AS Roma 54% | Draw 27% | Sassuolo 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 40% | xG AS Roma 1.45 / Sassuolo 0.75 • Poisson strength factors: AS Roma attack 1.015 / def 0.597 | Sassuolo attack 1.129 / def 1.131 | league avg home 1.262 / away 1.116 • Poisson stance: AS Roma (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.45
AS Roma xG
Expected Goals
0.75
Sassuolo xG
40%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does AS Roma vs Sassuolo kick off?
AS Roma vs Sassuolo kicked off at 17:00 on Sunday 12 March 2023 at Stadio Olimpico.
What was the final score in AS Roma vs Sassuolo?
AS Roma 3 - 4 Sassuolo.
Where is AS Roma vs Sassuolo being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Olimpico.
What competition is AS Roma vs Sassuolo part of?
AS Roma vs Sassuolo is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win AS Roma vs Sassuolo?
Our statistical model gives AS Roma a 54% chance of winning, Sassuolo a 19% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making AS Roma the favourite.
Will both teams score in AS Roma vs Sassuolo?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both AS Roma and Sassuolo will score (BTTS).
Will AS Roma vs Sassuolo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between AS Roma and Sassuolo?
Record (3 meetings): AS Roma 1W | Draws 2 | Sassuolo 0W.
What form are AS Roma and Sassuolo in?
AS Roma (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-D-W-L-W. Sassuolo (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-D-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from AS Roma's attack rating (1.01) and Sassuolo's defence rating (1.13), the model arrives at 1.45 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Sassuolo's attack versus AS Roma's defence, projects 0.75 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 63/63 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.5%. Close behind: 1-1 (13.6%), 0-0 (12.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
AS Roma Win
54%
1.86
27%
3.73
19%
5.15
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
2 – 0
11.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.45
AS Roma xG
Total xG
2.20
0.75
Sassuolo xG
1.86
54%
Home win
3.73
27%
Draw
5.15
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.47
60%
BTTS No
1.68
Clean Sheet
47%
2.12
23%
4.26
Win to Nil
25%
3.94
5%
21.94
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.1 | 8.3 | 3.1 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 16.1 | 12.1 | 4.5 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.6 | 8.7 | 3.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.6 | 4.2 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.0 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for AS Roma vs Sassuolo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are AS Roma and Sassuolo expected to score?
The model projects 1.45 expected goals for AS Roma and 0.75 for Sassuolo, a combined total of 2.20.
How confident is the prediction model for AS Roma vs Sassuolo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 63 outings, AS Roma have picked up 1.75 PPG on a 32W 14D 17L record — W-D-W-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for AS Roma is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Sassuolo's form line: 21W 17D 25L from 63 games, 1.27 PPG, last five W-D-L-W-W. The sample for Sassuolo is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, AS Roma are the form team by 0.48 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Sassuolo.
Venue Form
On home soil, AS Roma have posted 1.97 PPG from 31 outings (18W 7D 6L).
On the road, Sassuolo have gone 9W 9D 13L from 31 away games — 1.16 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, AS Roma come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
AS Roma are averaging 1.44 goals scored and 1.02 conceded per game recently; Sassuolo are on 1.49 scored and 1.63 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sassuolo in 67%.
Defensively: AS Roma have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 63 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
AS Roma
Blended
Sassuolo
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are AS Roma and Sassuolo in coming into this match?
AS Roma have gone 32W 14D 17L in their last 63 games (1.75 PPG), while Sassuolo have gone 21W 17D 25L in their last 63 (1.27 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — AS Roma at home or Sassuolo away?
AS Roma's home record (1.97 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — AS Roma at home: 1.97 PPG; Sassuolo away: 1.16 PPG.
Have AS Roma or Sassuolo been keeping clean sheets recently?
AS Roma have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, Sassuolo in 16%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 10 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
AS Roma have won the last 4 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
AS Roma's record when hosting Sassuolo specifically: 3W 0D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
5
AS Roma
2
Draws
1
Sassuolo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between AS Roma and Sassuolo?
From 8 meetings on record, AS Roma have won 5, Sassuolo have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did AS Roma and Sassuolo last play each other?
They last met on 10 January 2026, when AS Roma 2-0 Sassuolo.
Who has won more matches between AS Roma and Sassuolo?
AS Roma have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
AS Roma are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 45% of the time.
Sassuolo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — AS Roma 32%, Sassuolo 68% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 32% (AS Roma) and 74% (Sassuolo).
On the defensive side: AS Roma keep a clean sheet in 55% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = AS Roma home games / Sassuolo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when AS Roma play Sassuolo?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 32% of AS Roma's recent matches and 68% of Sassuolo's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is AS Roma vs Sassuolo usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 32% of AS Roma's recent games and 74% of Sassuolo's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do AS Roma and Sassuolo tend to score early?
AS Roma have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Sassuolo in 84% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Sassuolo defy the odds to beat AS Roma 3-4.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sassuolo beat AS Roma 3-4 at Stadio Olimpico, Regular Season - 26, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting AS Roma 1.45 xG and Sassuolo 0.75 xG, a combined 2.20. The scoreboard read 3-4 for 7 actual goals. AS Roma beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Sassuolo outscored their 0.75 projection by 3.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AS Roma attack 1.01 / defence 0.60 against Sassuolo attack 1.13 / defence 1.13, drawn from 63/63 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it AS Roma 54% | Draw 27% | Sassuolo 19%, with AS Roma to win its most likely call at 54%. Instead the game produced a Sassuolo win, an outcome the model had rated at just 19% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. Over 3.5 was 18% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AS Roma 44%, Sassuolo 70%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
AS Roma's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Sassuolo's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, AS Roma arrived the stronger side — 1.75 PPG against 1.27. Form was overturned, with Sassuolo winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. AS Roma (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.29 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 0.68 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Sassuolo (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.55 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.81 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.