AS Roma vs Sassuolo – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model favours AS Roma (71%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as AS Roma face Sassuolo.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie A encounter, Regular Season - 11 sees Sassuolo travel to Stadio Olimpico to take on AS Roma. The game is scheduled for Saturday 7 November 2026, 19:45 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, AS Roma stand at 8W 2D 0L from 10 Serie A matches — 2.60 PPG. Last five: W W D D W. They are averaging 2.30 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.50 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. AS Roma have played only a handful of Serie A games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
AS Roma at Stadio Olimpico this season: 7W 3D 0L from 10 home games — 2.40 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Olimpico.
Across all Serie A games this season, Sassuolo have recorded 2W 2D 6L from 10 outings — 0.80 PPG. Last five: D W L D L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 2.00. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Sassuolo have played only a handful of Serie A games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Sassuolo's form when playing away from home: 0W 3D 7L across 10 road games this term (0.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.30 is notably below their overall 0.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
AS Roma are in the better shape of the two on current Serie A data — 1.80 PPG ahead (2.60 vs 0.80). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H
The fixture history tells a clear story: AS Roma have dominated this rivalry, winning 5 of 8 past contests while Sassuolo have managed just 1 wins.
The 8 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 2.9 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 10 Jan 2026, ended 2–0 with AS Roma winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both AS Roma and goals. The home side's 5 wins from 8 meetings, combined with an average of 2.9 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading Patterns
AS Roma in-play and half-time data (45 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 94% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 30% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 51% of the time.
Sassuolo in-play and half-time data (45 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — AS Roma 33% versus Sassuolo 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (AS Roma 40% | Sassuolo 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects AS Roma 2.51 xG and Sassuolo 0.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: AS Roma attack 1.314 / defence 0.774 | Sassuolo attack 1.023 / defence 1.324. League average goals — home 1.444 / away 1.240. AS Roma carry an above-average attack strength of 1.314 — their λ of 2.51 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Sassuolo bring a strong defensive rating of 1.324 — this is suppressing AS Roma's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. AS Roma's defence rating of 0.774 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 45 AS Roma games / 45 Sassuolo games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: AS Roma 71% | Draw 17% | Sassuolo 13%. Fair-value odds: AS Roma 1.41 | Draw 5.88 | Sassuolo 7.69. The model has a clear lean to AS Roma (71%) — a 58pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 68% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 3.49. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 68% — a total xG of 3.49 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates AS Roma as the most likely outcome at 71% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.49 combined xG gives a 68% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.9 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: AS Roma 40% | Sassuolo 80% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: AS Roma vs Sassuolo | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Stadio Olimpico • Kick-off: Saturday 7 Nov 2026, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: AS Roma 71% | Draw 17% | Sassuolo 13% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 68% | BTTS 57% | xG AS Roma 2.51 / Sassuolo 0.98 • Poisson strength factors: AS Roma attack 1.314 / def 0.774 | Sassuolo attack 1.023 / def 1.324 | league avg home 1.444 / away 1.240 • Poisson stance: AS Roma (71%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.51
AS Roma xG
Expected Goals
0.98
Sassuolo xG
57%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
68%
Over 2.5
46%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does AS Roma vs Sassuolo kick off?
AS Roma vs Sassuolo is scheduled to kick off at 19:45 on Saturday 7 November 2026 at Stadio Olimpico.
Where is AS Roma vs Sassuolo being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Olimpico.
What competition is AS Roma vs Sassuolo part of?
AS Roma vs Sassuolo is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win AS Roma vs Sassuolo?
Our statistical model gives AS Roma a 71% chance of winning, Sassuolo a 13% chance, and a 17% chance of a draw — making AS Roma the favourite.
Will both teams score in AS Roma vs Sassuolo?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both AS Roma and Sassuolo will score (BTTS).
Will AS Roma vs Sassuolo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 68%.
What is the head-to-head record between AS Roma and Sassuolo?
Record (8 meetings): AS Roma 5W | Draws 2 | Sassuolo 1W.
What form are AS Roma and Sassuolo in?
AS Roma (all comps): 8W-2D-0L in 10 | 2.60 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 0.50 | L5 W-W-D-D-W. Sassuolo (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 2.00 | L5 D-W-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from AS Roma's attack rating (1.31) and Sassuolo's defence rating (1.32), the model arrives at 2.51 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Sassuolo's attack versus AS Roma's defence, projects 0.98 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 45/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 1-1 (8.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
AS Roma Win
71%
1.42
17%
6.01
13%
7.87
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
9.6%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
3 – 0
8.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.51
AS Roma xG
Total xG
3.49
0.98
Sassuolo xG
1.42
71%
Home win
6.01
17%
Draw
7.87
13%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
68%
Over 2.5
1.47
32%
Under 2.5
3.12
46%
Over 3.5
2.17
54%
Under 3.5
1.85
27%
Over 4.5
3.70
73%
Under 4.5
1.37
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.74
43%
BTTS No
2.35
Clean Sheet
37%
2.67
8%
12.33
Win to Nil
26%
3.77
1%
97.01
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 7.6 | 7.5 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.6 | 9.4 | 4.6 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 8.0 | 7.9 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 5.0 | 4.9 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for AS Roma vs Sassuolo?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.6%.
How many goals are AS Roma and Sassuolo expected to score?
The model projects 2.51 expected goals for AS Roma and 0.98 for Sassuolo, a combined total of 3.49.
How confident is the prediction model for AS Roma vs Sassuolo?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 71%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 45 outings, AS Roma have picked up 2.00 PPG on a 28W 6D 11L record — W-W-D-D-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for AS Roma, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Sassuolo's form line: 16W 9D 20L from 45 games, 1.27 PPG, last five D-W-L-D-L. It's still early in the season for Sassuolo, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, AS Roma are the form team by 0.73 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Sassuolo.
Venue Form
On home soil, AS Roma have posted 2.26 PPG from 23 outings (16W 4D 3L).
On the road, Sassuolo have gone 5W 6D 12L from 23 away games — 0.91 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, AS Roma come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
AS Roma are averaging 1.67 goals scored and 0.76 conceded per game recently; Sassuolo are on 1.29 scored and 1.42 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sassuolo in 60%.
Defensively: AS Roma have kept a clean sheet in 51% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 45 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
AS Roma
Early Season
Sassuolo
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are AS Roma and Sassuolo in coming into this match?
AS Roma have gone 28W 6D 11L in their last 45 games (2.00 PPG), while Sassuolo have gone 16W 9D 20L in their last 45 (1.27 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — AS Roma at home or Sassuolo away?
AS Roma's home record (2.26 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — AS Roma at home: 2.26 PPG; Sassuolo away: 0.91 PPG.
Have AS Roma or Sassuolo been keeping clean sheets recently?
AS Roma have kept a clean sheet in 51% of their recent games, Sassuolo in 18%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 10 January 2026, roughly 9 months ago.
Streaks & Records
AS Roma have won the last 4 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
AS Roma's record when hosting Sassuolo specifically: 3W 0D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
5
AS Roma
2
Draws
1
Sassuolo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between AS Roma and Sassuolo?
From 8 meetings on record, AS Roma have won 5, Sassuolo have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did AS Roma and Sassuolo last play each other?
They last met on 10 January 2026, when AS Roma 2-0 Sassuolo.
Who has won more matches between AS Roma and Sassuolo?
AS Roma have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
AS Roma see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time.
Sassuolo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — AS Roma 30%, Sassuolo 65% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 39% (AS Roma) and 61% (Sassuolo).
On the defensive side: AS Roma keep a clean sheet in 56% of their matches; Sassuolo in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = AS Roma home games / Sassuolo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when AS Roma play Sassuolo?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 30% of AS Roma's recent matches and 65% of Sassuolo's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is AS Roma vs Sassuolo usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 39% of AS Roma's recent games and 61% of Sassuolo's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do AS Roma and Sassuolo tend to score early?
AS Roma have had a goal before half-time in 56% of their recent matches, Sassuolo in 61% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.