AS Roma 0-1 Napoli – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates AS Roma at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this AS Roma vs Napoli fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
AS Roma host Napoli at Stadio Olimpico in Serie A, Regular Season - 13. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 30 November 2025 at 19:45 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie A games this season, AS Roma have gone 7W 0D 3L from 10 outings — a 2.10 PPG return. Last five: W W L W W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 0.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for AS Roma, so this record blends games from this season and last.
AS Roma's form when playing at home: 7W 1D 2L across 10 games at Stadio Olimpico this term (2.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Olimpico. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Napoli — All Games: 6W 1D 3L from 10 Serie A fixtures this season — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W W D L W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.10. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Napoli, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Napoli away from home this season: 5W 2D 3L from 10 away games — 1.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — AS Roma at 2.10 PPG versus Napoli's 1.90. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
On the goals front, neither side scores or concedes freely enough to make BTTS Yes the call. AS Roma's 30% rate and Napoli's 30% (using home/away splits) both sit well below average — BTTS No is the form-backed angle.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 8 previous meetings, AS Roma have won 1, Napoli 3, with 4 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 8 previous meetings have averaged 1.9 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 2 Feb 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
AS Roma in-play tendencies (50 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
Napoli in-play tendencies (50 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — AS Roma 42% versus Napoli 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (AS Roma 36% | Napoli 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects AS Roma 1.16 xG and Napoli 0.79 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: AS Roma attack 1.040 / defence 0.749 | Napoli attack 0.935 / defence 0.925. League average goals — home 1.204 / away 1.124. AS Roma's defence rating of 0.749 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 50 AS Roma games / 50 Napoli games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: AS Roma 43% | Draw 34% | Napoli 23%. Fair-value odds: AS Roma 2.33 | Draw 2.94 | Napoli 4.35. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 31% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 1.95. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 69% probability — total xG of 1.95 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is AS Roma at 43% — marginal model lean. With a 34% draw probability, Draw No Bet on AS Roma offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 1.95 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 31% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 1.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 1.9 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 39%. Form rates corroborate: AS Roma 30% | Napoli 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: AS Roma vs Napoli | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Stadio Olimpico • Kick-off: Sunday 30 Nov 2025, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: AS Roma 43% | Draw 34% | Napoli 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 31% | BTTS 39% | xG AS Roma 1.16 / Napoli 0.79 • Poisson strength factors: AS Roma attack 1.040 / def 0.749 | Napoli attack 0.935 / def 0.925 | league avg home 1.204 / away 1.124 • Poisson stance: AS Roma (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.16
AS Roma xG
Expected Goals
0.79
Napoli xG
39%
BTTS
59%
Over 1.5
31%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does AS Roma vs Napoli kick off?
AS Roma vs Napoli kicked off at 19:45 on Sunday 30 November 2025 at Stadio Olimpico.
What was the final score in AS Roma vs Napoli?
AS Roma 0 - 1 Napoli.
Where is AS Roma vs Napoli being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Olimpico.
What competition is AS Roma vs Napoli part of?
AS Roma vs Napoli is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win AS Roma vs Napoli?
Our statistical model gives AS Roma a 43% chance of winning, Napoli a 23% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making AS Roma the favourite.
Will both teams score in AS Roma vs Napoli?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both AS Roma and Napoli will score (BTTS).
Will AS Roma vs Napoli have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 31%.
What is the head-to-head record between AS Roma and Napoli?
Record (8 meetings): AS Roma 1W | Draws 4 | Napoli 3W.
What form are AS Roma and Napoli in?
AS Roma (all comps): 7W-0D-3L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-W-L-W-W. Napoli (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
AS Roma's attacking strength (1.04x league average) is weighed against Napoli's defensive record (0.93x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.16. The same calculation in reverse, Napoli's attack versus AS Roma's defence, projects 0.79 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 50/50 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 16.0%. Close behind: 1-0 (14.8%), 1-1 (14.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 46% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
AS Roma Win
43%
2.33
34%
2.98
23%
4.26
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.5%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.3%
Draw
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.16
AS Roma xG
Total xG
1.95
0.79
Napoli xG
2.33
43%
Home win
2.98
34%
Draw
4.26
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
58%
Over 1.5
1.72
42%
Under 1.5
2.38
31%
Over 2.5
3.23
69%
Under 2.5
1.45
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.57
61%
BTTS No
1.64
Clean Sheet
45%
2.20
31%
3.18
Win to Nil
20%
5.12
7%
13.57
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.3 | 11.3 | 4.4 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 16.5 | 13.0 | 5.1 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 9.6 | 7.5 | 3.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.7 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for AS Roma vs Napoli?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.0%.
How many goals are AS Roma and Napoli expected to score?
The model projects 1.16 expected goals for AS Roma and 0.79 for Napoli, a combined total of 1.95.
How confident is the prediction model for AS Roma vs Napoli?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
AS Roma come into this having played 50 games, going 29W 9D 12L for 1.92 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-W-W. The sample for AS Roma is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Napoli sit at 2.14 PPG from 50 outings (32W 11D 7L), a run that reads W-W-D-L-W across their last five. The sample for Napoli is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: AS Roma on 1.92 PPG, Napoli on 2.14. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
AS Roma's home form reads 17W 2D 6L across 25 games on their own ground, a 2.12 PPG return.
Away from home, Napoli have taken 1.84 points per game from 25 outings (13W 7D 5L).
Goals in Recent Form
AS Roma are averaging 1.42 goals scored and 0.82 conceded per game recently; Napoli are on 1.56 scored and 0.76 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
Defensively: AS Roma have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their games; Napoli in 46% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 50 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
AS Roma
Blended
Napoli
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are AS Roma and Napoli in coming into this match?
AS Roma have gone 29W 9D 12L in their last 50 games (1.92 PPG), while Napoli have gone 32W 11D 7L in their last 50 (2.14 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — AS Roma at home or Napoli away?
AS Roma's home record (2.12 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — AS Roma at home: 2.12 PPG; Napoli away: 1.84 PPG.
Have AS Roma or Napoli been keeping clean sheets recently?
AS Roma have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their recent games, Napoli in 46%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 15 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
AS Roma's record when hosting Napoli specifically: 1W 2D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
AS Roma
5
Draws
4
Napoli
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between AS Roma and Napoli?
From 10 meetings on record, AS Roma have won 1, Napoli have won 4, and 5 have been drawn.
When did AS Roma and Napoli last play each other?
They last met on 15 February 2026, when Napoli 2-2 AS Roma.
Who has won more matches between AS Roma and Napoli?
Napoli have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
AS Roma are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Napoli are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — AS Roma 40%, Napoli 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (AS Roma) and 40% (Napoli).
On the defensive side: AS Roma keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches; Napoli in 48%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = AS Roma home games / Napoli away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when AS Roma play Napoli?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of AS Roma's recent matches and 40% of Napoli's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is AS Roma vs Napoli usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of AS Roma's recent games and 40% of Napoli's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do AS Roma and Napoli tend to score early?
AS Roma have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Napoli in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Napoli defy the odds to beat AS Roma 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Napoli beat AS Roma 0-1 at Stadio Olimpico, Regular Season - 13, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting AS Roma 1.16 xG and Napoli 0.79 xG, a combined 1.95. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. AS Roma fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AS Roma attack 1.04 / defence 0.75 against Napoli attack 0.94 / defence 0.93, drawn from 50/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it AS Roma 43% | Draw 34% | Napoli 23%, with AS Roma to win its most likely call at 43%. Instead the game produced a Napoli win, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 59% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AS Roma 36%, Napoli 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
AS Roma's trading profile (50 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.
Napoli's trading profile (50 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — AS Roma 1.92 PPG, Napoli 2.14 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Napoli win broke the near-deadlock. AS Roma (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.76 scoring average — below par going forward. Napoli (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.80 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.