AS Roma 1-0 Lazio – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates AS Roma at 47% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this AS Roma vs Lazio encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Lazio make the trip to Stadio Olimpico to face AS Roma in Serie A, Regular Season - 31. The match kicks off on Saturday 6 April 2024 at 17:00 UTC.
Current Form
AS Roma's overall Serie A record this term: 7W 2D 1L from 10 games (2.30 PPG). Last five: W W D W D. They are averaging 2.30 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters this season, AS Roma have posted 7W 2D 1L at Stadio Olimpico — 2.30 PPG. They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Lazio have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 4W 1D 5L. Last five: L L L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Lazio's form when playing away from home: 5W 1D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Form favours the hosts. AS Roma's 2.30 PPG return is 1.00 points per game ahead of Lazio's 1.30 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — AS Roma register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, Lazio in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — AS Roma lead 1W to 3W over the last 5 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 12 Nov 2023, ended 0–0 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
AS Roma goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (68 games, 34 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 84% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games).
Lazio goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (68 games, 34 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — AS Roma 53% versus Lazio 41%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (AS Roma 50% | Lazio 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects AS Roma 1.83 xG and Lazio 1.39 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: AS Roma attack 1.336 / defence 0.960 | Lazio attack 1.219 / defence 1.011. League average goals — home 1.353 / away 1.190. AS Roma carry an above-average attack strength of 1.336 — their λ of 1.83 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Lazio have an above-average attack strength of 1.219 — the away xG of 1.39 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 68 AS Roma games / 68 Lazio games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: AS Roma 47% | Draw 24% | Lazio 29%. Fair-value odds: AS Roma 2.13 | Draw 4.17 | Lazio 3.45. AS Roma hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.22. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.22 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (1.83 / 1.39) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Lazio lead the H2H ledger, but AS Roma carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.
Poisson rates AS Roma as the most likely outcome at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on AS Roma if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.22 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 62% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 64% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: AS Roma 70% | Lazio 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: AS Roma vs Lazio | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 31 | Venue: Stadio Olimpico • Kick-off: Saturday 6 Apr 2024, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: AS Roma 47% | Draw 24% | Lazio 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 64% | xG AS Roma 1.83 / Lazio 1.39 • Poisson strength factors: AS Roma attack 1.336 / def 0.960 | Lazio attack 1.219 / def 1.011 | league avg home 1.353 / away 1.190 • Poisson stance: AS Roma (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.83
AS Roma xG
Expected Goals
1.39
Lazio xG
64%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does AS Roma vs Lazio kick off?
AS Roma vs Lazio kicked off at 17:00 on Saturday 6 April 2024 at Stadio Olimpico.
What was the final score in AS Roma vs Lazio?
AS Roma 1 - 0 Lazio.
Where is AS Roma vs Lazio being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Olimpico.
What competition is AS Roma vs Lazio part of?
AS Roma vs Lazio is a Regular Season - 31 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win AS Roma vs Lazio?
Our statistical model gives AS Roma a 47% chance of winning, Lazio a 29% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making AS Roma the favourite.
Will both teams score in AS Roma vs Lazio?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both AS Roma and Lazio will score (BTTS).
Will AS Roma vs Lazio have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between AS Roma and Lazio?
Record (5 meetings): AS Roma 1W | Draws 1 | Lazio 3W.
What form are AS Roma and Lazio in?
AS Roma (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-D-W-D. Lazio (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from AS Roma's attack rating (1.34) and Lazio's defence rating (1.01), the model arrives at 1.83 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Lazio's attack (1.22x) against AS Roma's defence (0.96x) — and the away total comes out at 1.39.
These ratings are built from 68/68 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 1-2 (7.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
AS Roma Win
47%
2.13
24%
4.10
29%
3.50
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.2%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
1 – 0
7.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.83
AS Roma xG
Total xG
3.22
1.39
Lazio xG
2.13
47%
Home win
4.10
24%
Draw
3.50
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.57
36%
BTTS No
2.77
Clean Sheet
25%
4.02
16%
6.22
Win to Nil
12%
8.56
5%
21.74
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.0 | 5.6 | 3.9 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.3 | 10.2 | 7.1 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 9.3 | 6.5 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 5.7 | 3.9 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.6 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for AS Roma vs Lazio?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.5%.
How many goals are AS Roma and Lazio expected to score?
The model projects 1.83 expected goals for AS Roma and 1.39 for Lazio, a combined total of 3.22.
How confident is the prediction model for AS Roma vs Lazio?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
AS Roma's recent record stands at 33W 16D 19L from 68 games, a 1.69 PPG return, with W-W-D-W-D in the last five.
Lazio, meanwhile, have gone 36W 12D 20L across 68 games — 1.76 PPG, with L-L-L-W-W in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.69 PPG for AS Roma against 1.76 for Lazio. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, AS Roma have managed 21W 6D 7L from 34 games — 2.03 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Lazio's away record stands at 18W 5D 11L across 34 trips, a 1.74 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
AS Roma are averaging 1.54 goals scored and 1.07 conceded per game recently; Lazio are on 1.43 scored and 0.93 conceded.
Defensively: Lazio in 46% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 68 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
AS Roma
Current Season
Lazio
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are AS Roma and Lazio in coming into this match?
AS Roma have gone 33W 16D 19L in their last 68 games (1.69 PPG), while Lazio have gone 36W 12D 20L in their last 68 (1.76 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — AS Roma at home or Lazio away?
AS Roma's home record (2.03 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — AS Roma at home: 2.03 PPG; Lazio away: 1.74 PPG.
Have AS Roma or Lazio been keeping clean sheets recently?
AS Roma have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, Lazio in 46%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. The two were last together as recently as 17 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: AS Roma have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: AS Roma won 3-0 on 20 Mar 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, AS Roma have gone 4W 0D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Lazio — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
AS Roma
2
Draws
3
Lazio
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between AS Roma and Lazio?
From 10 meetings on record, AS Roma have won 5, Lazio have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did AS Roma and Lazio last play each other?
They last met on 17 May 2026, when AS Roma 2-0 Lazio.
Who has won more matches between AS Roma and Lazio?
AS Roma have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
AS Roma are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Lazio are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 56% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 24% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — AS Roma 44%, Lazio 41% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (AS Roma) and 44% (Lazio).
On the defensive side: AS Roma keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches; Lazio in 47%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = AS Roma home games / Lazio away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when AS Roma play Lazio?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of AS Roma's recent matches and 41% of Lazio's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is AS Roma vs Lazio usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of AS Roma's recent games and 44% of Lazio's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do AS Roma and Lazio tend to score early?
AS Roma have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Lazio in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as AS Roma edge out Lazio 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
AS Roma beat Lazio 1-0 at Stadio Olimpico, Regular Season - 31, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting AS Roma 1.83 xG and Lazio 1.39 xG, a combined 3.22. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. AS Roma fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Lazio landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AS Roma attack 1.34 / defence 0.96 against Lazio attack 1.22 / defence 1.01, drawn from 68/68 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it AS Roma 47% | Draw 24% | Lazio 29%, with AS Roma to win its most likely call at 47%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 84% and missed. Over 3.5 was 40% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AS Roma 50%, Lazio 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
AS Roma's trading profile (68 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and duly kept one.
Lazio's trading profile (68 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — AS Roma 1.69 PPG, Lazio 1.76 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the AS Roma win broke the near-deadlock. AS Roma (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.82 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.88 average — tighter than their form line. Lazio (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.47 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.