AS Roma 3-1 AC Milan – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates AS Roma at 45%, yet the head-to-head data favours AC Milan — this AS Roma vs AC Milan fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadio Olimpico plays host to AS Roma versus AC Milan in Serie A (matchday 37). Kick-off: Sunday 18 May 2025 at 20:45 UK time.
Form & Momentum
AS Roma have collected 2.30 PPG across their last 10 games: 7W 2D 1L. Last five: D W W W L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 0.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.50 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
AS Roma's form when playing at home: 8W 2D 0L across their last 10 home games (2.60 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home.
AC Milan's record over their last 10 games: 6W 1D 3L (1.90 PPG). Last five: W L W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling, AC Milan have posted 6W 0D 4L from their last 10 away outings — 1.80 PPG. They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
A near-identical PPG reading — 2.30 for AS Roma, 1.90 for AC Milan — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Head-to-Head
Across the 7 H2H matches in our data, AC Milan have the stronger record — 4 wins to AS Roma's 0, with 3 draws.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 7 H2H matches in our data averaged 3.1 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 29 Dec 2024, ended AS Roma 1–1 AC Milan — a draw.
The H2H data backs the away side. AC Milan have won 4 of 7 H2H matches, and at 3.1 goals per game the goals market also points upward — the away win and Over 2.5 combination has a head-to-head case.
Trading & In-Play
AS Roma — key trading statistics (last 74 games, 37 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 78% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; of the 19 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 42%; BTTS occurs in 51% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 51% of games (home games).
AC Milan — key trading statistics (last 74 games, 37 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 76% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 84% of the time; of the 15 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 76% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — AS Roma 55% versus AC Milan 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (AS Roma 50% | AC Milan 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects AS Roma 1.49 xG and AC Milan 1.12 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: AS Roma attack 1.232 / defence 0.719 | AC Milan attack 1.357 / defence 0.999. League average goals — home 1.207 / away 1.147. AC Milan have an above-average attack rating of 1.357, which lifts their away xG to 1.12. AS Roma have a tight defence (rating 0.719), which is pulling AC Milan's projected output down. Data: built from AS Roma's last 74 games and AC Milan's last 74.
Result probabilities: AS Roma 45% | Draw 27% | AC Milan 28%. Fair-value odds: AS Roma 2.23 | Draw 3.68 | AC Milan 3.59. AS Roma hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS Yes probability 53% | Total xG 2.60. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.60 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 53% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is AS Roma at 45% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on AS Roma if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.60 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 52% probability — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 3.1 goals per game across 7 H2H matches points the other way.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on Yes. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: AS Roma 40% (last 10 home games) | AC Milan 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: AS Roma vs AC Milan | Competition: Serie A, matchday 37 | Venue: Stadio Olimpico • Kick-off: Sunday 18 May 2025 at 20:45 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: AS Roma 45% | Draw 27% | AC Milan 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% (Under 52%) | BTTS Yes 53% (No 47%) | xG AS Roma 1.49 / AC Milan 1.12 • Poisson strength factors: AS Roma attack 1.232 / def 0.719 | AC Milan attack 1.357 / def 0.999 | league avg home 1.207 / away 1.147 • Poisson stance: AS Roma (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.49
AS Roma xG
Expected Goals
1.12
AC Milan xG
53%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ AS Roma vs AC Milan FAQs
What time does AS Roma vs AC Milan kick off?
AS Roma vs AC Milan kicked off at 20:45 UK time on Sunday 18 May 2025 at Stadio Olimpico.
What was the final score in AS Roma vs AC Milan?
AS Roma 3 - 1 AC Milan.
Where is AS Roma vs AC Milan being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Olimpico.
What competition is AS Roma vs AC Milan part of?
AS Roma vs AC Milan is a Serie A fixture (matchday 37) (Italy).
Who is favourite to win AS Roma vs AC Milan?
Our statistical model gives AS Roma a 45% chance of winning, AC Milan a 28% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making AS Roma the favourite.
Will both teams score in AS Roma vs AC Milan?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both AS Roma and AC Milan will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will AS Roma vs AC Milan have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (52%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates AS Roma's attack at 1.23x the league average against AC Milan's defence at 1.00x — combine the two and it projects 1.49 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — AC Milan's attack (1.36x) against AS Roma's defence (0.72x) — and the away total comes out at 1.12.
These ratings are built from AS Roma's last 74 games and AC Milan's last 74 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (9.4%), 2-1 (9.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
AS Roma Win
45%
2.23
27%
3.68
28%
3.59
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.0%
Home win
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.49
AS Roma xG
Total xG
2.60
1.12
AC Milan xG
2.23
45%
Home win
3.68
27%
Draw
3.59
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.89
47%
BTTS No
2.12
Clean Sheet
33%
3.06
23%
4.42
Win to Nil
15%
6.81
6%
15.86
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.4 | 8.3 | 4.6 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.0 | 12.3 | 6.9 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.2 | 9.1 | 5.1 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 4.5 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ AS Roma vs AC Milan Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for AS Roma vs AC Milan?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are AS Roma and AC Milan expected to score?
The model projects 1.49 expected goals for AS Roma and 1.12 for AC Milan, a combined total of 2.60.
How confident is the prediction model for AS Roma vs AC Milan?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
AS Roma come into this having played 74 games, going 36W 18D 20L for 1.70 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-W-W-L.
On the other side, AC Milan sit at 1.82 PPG from 74 outings (39W 18D 17L), a run that reads W-L-W-W-W across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.70 PPG for AS Roma against 1.82 for AC Milan. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
AS Roma's home form reads 24W 6D 7L across their last 37 home games, a 2.11 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.70 PPG overall — AS Roma are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, AC Milan have taken 1.73 points per game from their last 37 away games (19W 7D 11L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
AS Roma are averaging 1.57 goals scored and 1.08 conceded per game recently; AC Milan are on 1.81 scored and 1.20 conceded.
Defensively: AS Roma have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 74 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
AS Roma
Current Season
AC Milan
Current Season
AS Roma (Home) vs AC Milan (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
AS Roma
Current Season
AC Milan
Current Season
❓ AS Roma vs AC Milan Form FAQs
What form are AS Roma and AC Milan in coming into this match?
AS Roma have gone 36W 18D 20L in their last 74 games (1.70 PPG), while AC Milan have gone 39W 18D 17L in their last 74 (1.82 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — AS Roma at home or AC Milan away?
AS Roma's home record (2.11 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — AS Roma at home: 2.11 PPG; AC Milan away: 1.73 PPG.
Have AS Roma or AC Milan been keeping clean sheets recently?
AS Roma have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, AC Milan in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 10 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to October 2021 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Serie A. The most recent was on 25 January 2026, roughly 9 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, AS Roma have gone 1W 2D 2L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against AC Milan — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
AS Roma
4
Draws
5
AC Milan
Recent Meetings
❓ AS Roma vs AC Milan H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between AS Roma and AC Milan?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, AS Roma have won 1, AC Milan have won 5, and 4 have been drawn.
When did AS Roma and AC Milan last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 25 January 2026: AS Roma 1-1 AC Milan.
Who has won more matches between AS Roma and AC Milan?
AC Milan have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
AS Roma are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
AC Milan are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 38% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — AS Roma 51%, AC Milan 70% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 51% for AS Roma and 76% for AC Milan. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 32% and 43% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: AS Roma keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = AS Roma home games / AC Milan away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ AS Roma vs AC Milan Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in AS Roma and AC Milan matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 51% of AS Roma's games and 70% of AC Milan's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are AS Roma and AC Milan matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 51% of AS Roma's matches and 76% of AC Milan's.
Do AS Roma and AC Milan matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 78% of AS Roma's recent matches and 76% of AC Milan's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
AS Roma cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over AC Milan.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
AS Roma beat AC Milan 3-1 at Stadio Olimpico, Regular Season - 37, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting AS Roma 1.49 xG and AC Milan 1.12 xG, a combined 2.60. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. AS Roma beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AS Roma attack 1.23 / defence 0.72 against AC Milan attack 1.36 / defence 1.00, drawn from 74/74 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it AS Roma 45% | Draw 27% | AC Milan 28%, with AS Roma to win its most likely call at 45%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. Over 3.5 was 27% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AS Roma 50%, AC Milan 64%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
AS Roma's trading profile (74 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
AC Milan's trading profile (74 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — AS Roma 1.70 PPG, AC Milan 1.82 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the AS Roma win broke the near-deadlock. AS Roma (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.95 average — above their attacking norm. AC Milan (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.84 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.51 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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