Waterford 0-2 St Patrick's Athl. – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Waterford at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Waterford vs St Patrick's Athl. fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
St Patrick's Athl. make the trip to Regional Sports Centre to face Waterford in Premier Division, Regular Season - 26. The match kicks off on Sunday 3 August 2025 at 16:00 UTC.
Form
Waterford (all games): 3W 3D 4L across 10 Premier Division fixtures this term — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D L L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 2.10 conceded. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Waterford, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Waterford at Regional Sports Centre this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 home games — 1.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
St Patrick's Athl.'s overall Premier Division record this term: 2W 4D 4L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: L L L D D. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for St Patrick's Athl., so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, St Patrick's Athl. have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.20 PPG for Waterford against 1.00 for St Patrick's Athl.. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Waterford lead 1W to 2W over the last 4 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 23 May 2025, ended 2–2 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Waterford — key trading statistics (61 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
St Patrick's Athl. — key trading statistics (61 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 44% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Waterford 52% versus St Patrick's Athl. 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Waterford 56% | St Patrick's Athl. 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Waterford 1.40 xG and St Patrick's Athl. 1.08 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Waterford attack 1.022 / defence 1.241 | St Patrick's Athl. attack 0.815 / defence 0.978. League average goals — home 1.400 / away 1.067. Data: 61 Waterford games / 61 St Patrick's Athl. games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Waterford 44% | Draw 27% | St Patrick's Athl. 29%. Fair-value odds: Waterford 2.27 | Draw 3.70 | St Patrick's Athl. 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.48. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.48 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Waterford are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Waterford if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.48 combined xG gives a 45% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 2.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 50%. Form rates are neutral: Waterford 60% | St Patrick's Athl. 40%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Waterford vs St Patrick's Athl. | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Regional Sports Centre • Kick-off: Sunday 3 Aug 2025, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Waterford 44% | Draw 27% | St Patrick's Athl. 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 50% | xG Waterford 1.40 / St Patrick's Athl. 1.08 • Poisson strength factors: Waterford attack 1.022 / def 1.241 | St Patrick's Athl. attack 0.815 / def 0.978 | league avg home 1.400 / away 1.067 • Poisson stance: Waterford (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.40
Waterford xG
Expected Goals
1.08
St Patrick's Athl. xG
50%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Waterford vs St Patrick's Athl. kick off?
Waterford vs St Patrick's Athl. kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 3 August 2025 at Regional Sports Centre.
What was the final score in Waterford vs St Patrick's Athl.?
Waterford 0 - 2 St Patrick's Athl..
Where is Waterford vs St Patrick's Athl. being played?
The match is being played at Regional Sports Centre.
What competition is Waterford vs St Patrick's Athl. part of?
Waterford vs St Patrick's Athl. is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Waterford vs St Patrick's Athl.?
Our statistical model gives Waterford a 44% chance of winning, St Patrick's Athl. a 29% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Waterford the favourite.
Will both teams score in Waterford vs St Patrick's Athl.?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Waterford and St Patrick's Athl. will score (BTTS).
Will Waterford vs St Patrick's Athl. have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Waterford and St Patrick's Athl.?
Record (4 meetings): Waterford 1W | Draws 1 | St Patrick's Athl. 2W.
What form are Waterford and St Patrick's Athl. in?
Waterford (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 2.10 | L5 D-L-L-W-W. St Patrick's Athl. (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Waterford's attack at 1.02x the league average against St Patrick's Athl.'s defence at 0.98x — combine the two and it projects 1.40 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — St Patrick's Athl.'s attack (0.81x) against Waterford's defence (1.24x) — and the away total comes out at 1.08.
These ratings are built from 61/61 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (10.1%), 0-0 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Waterford Win
44%
2.26
27%
3.74
29%
3.44
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.7%
Home win
0 – 1
9.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.40
Waterford xG
Total xG
2.48
1.08
St Patrick's Athl. xG
2.26
44%
Home win
3.74
27%
Draw
3.44
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.01
50%
BTTS No
1.99
Clean Sheet
34%
2.94
25%
4.05
Win to Nil
15%
6.66
7%
13.95
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.4 | 9.1 | 4.9 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.7 | 12.7 | 6.8 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.2 | 8.9 | 4.8 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 4.1 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Waterford vs St Patrick's Athl.?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Waterford and St Patrick's Athl. expected to score?
The model projects 1.40 expected goals for Waterford and 1.08 for St Patrick's Athl., a combined total of 2.48.
How confident is the prediction model for Waterford vs St Patrick's Athl.?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Waterford's recent record stands at 23W 9D 29L from 61 games, a 1.28 PPG return, with D-L-L-W-W in the last five. The sample for Waterford is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
St Patrick's Athl., meanwhile, have gone 25W 16D 20L across 61 games — 1.49 PPG, with L-L-L-D-D in their last five. The sample for St Patrick's Athl. is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.28 PPG for Waterford against 1.49 for St Patrick's Athl.. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Waterford have managed 12W 6D 12L from 30 games — 1.40 PPG in front of their own supporters.
St Patrick's Athl.'s away record stands at 9W 8D 13L across 30 trips, a 1.17 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Waterford are averaging 1.23 goals scored and 1.49 conceded per game recently; St Patrick's Athl. are on 1.28 scored and 1.05 conceded.
Defensively: St Patrick's Athl. in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 61 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Waterford
Blended
St Patrick's Athl.
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Waterford and St Patrick's Athl. in coming into this match?
Waterford have gone 23W 9D 29L in their last 61 games (1.28 PPG), while St Patrick's Athl. have gone 25W 16D 20L in their last 61 (1.49 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Waterford at home or St Patrick's Athl. away?
Waterford's home record (1.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Waterford at home: 1.40 PPG; St Patrick's Athl. away: 1.17 PPG.
Have Waterford or St Patrick's Athl. been keeping clean sheets recently?
Waterford have kept a clean sheet in 16% of their recent games, St Patrick's Athl. in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to July 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. The two were last together as recently as 28 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: St Patrick's Athl. won 3-0 on 20 Sep 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Waterford have gone 1W 1D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against St Patrick's Athl. — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Waterford
3
Draws
5
St Patrick's Athl.
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Waterford and St Patrick's Athl.?
From 10 meetings on record, Waterford have won 2, St Patrick's Athl. have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Waterford and St Patrick's Athl. last play each other?
They last met on 28 August 2026, when St Patrick's Athl. 0-2 Waterford.
Who has won more matches between Waterford and St Patrick's Athl.?
St Patrick's Athl. have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Waterford are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time.
St Patrick's Athl. are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Waterford 60%, St Patrick's Athl. 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Waterford) and 50% (St Patrick's Athl.). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 27% and 27% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: St Patrick's Athl. in 33%; Waterford have failed to score in 30% of games; St Patrick's Athl. in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Waterford home games / St Patrick's Athl. away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Waterford play St Patrick's Athl.?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 60% of Waterford's recent matches and 47% of St Patrick's Athl.'s, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Waterford vs St Patrick's Athl. usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Waterford's matches and 50% of St Patrick's Athl.'s.
Do Waterford and St Patrick's Athl. tend to score early?
Waterford have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, St Patrick's Athl. in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
St Patrick's Athl. cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Waterford.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
St Patrick's Athl. beat Waterford 0-2 at Regional Sports Centre, Regular Season - 26, in the Premier Division. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Waterford 1.40 xG and St Patrick's Athl. 1.08 xG, a combined 2.48. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Waterford fell 1.4 short of their projected output. St Patrick's Athl. outscored their 1.08 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Waterford attack 1.02 / defence 1.24 against St Patrick's Athl. attack 0.81 / defence 0.98, drawn from 61/61 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Waterford 44% | Draw 27% | St Patrick's Athl. 29%, with Waterford to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual St Patrick's Athl. win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Waterford 56%, St Patrick's Athl. 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Waterford's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.
St Patrick's Athl.'s trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Waterford 1.28 PPG, St Patrick's Athl. 1.49 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the St Patrick's Athl. win broke the near-deadlock. Waterford (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.33 scoring average — below par going forward. St Patrick's Athl. (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.03 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.20 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.