Waterford 3-1 St Patrick's Athl. – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates St Patrick's Athl. at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Waterford vs St Patrick's Athl. fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
St Patrick's Athl. make the trip to Waterford Regional Sports Centre to face Waterford in Premier Division, Regular Season - 4. The match kicks off on Monday 4 March 2024 at 19:45 UTC.
Form
Waterford (all games): 1W 0D 1L across 2 Premier Division fixtures this term — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Waterford have played only a handful of Premier Division games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
St Patrick's Athl.'s overall Premier Division record this term: 5W 1D 4L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: W W W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
On the road, St Patrick's Athl. have gone 6W 1D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.50 PPG for Waterford against 1.60 for St Patrick's Athl.. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Waterford 1.02 xG and St Patrick's Athl. 1.30 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Waterford attack 0.886 / defence 1.097 | St Patrick's Athl. attack 0.974 / defence 0.947. League average goals — home 1.211 / away 1.218. Data: 3 Waterford games / 39 St Patrick's Athl. games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Waterford 28% | Draw 29% | St Patrick's Athl. 42%. Fair-value odds: Waterford 3.57 | Draw 3.45 | St Patrick's Athl. 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.32. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.32 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, St Patrick's Athl. are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on St Patrick's Athl. if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.32 combined xG gives a 41% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (3 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Waterford vs St Patrick's Athl. | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Waterford Regional Sports Centre • Kick-off: Monday 4 Mar 2024, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Waterford 28% | Draw 29% | St Patrick's Athl. 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 47% | xG Waterford 1.02 / St Patrick's Athl. 1.30 • Poisson strength factors: Waterford attack 0.886 / def 1.097 | St Patrick's Athl. attack 0.974 / def 0.947 | league avg home 1.211 / away 1.218 • Poisson stance: St Patrick's Athl. (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.02
Waterford xG
Expected Goals
1.30
St Patrick's Athl. xG
47%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Waterford vs St Patrick's Athl. kick off?
Waterford vs St Patrick's Athl. kicked off at 19:45 on Monday 4 March 2024 at Waterford Regional Sports Centre.
What was the final score in Waterford vs St Patrick's Athl.?
Waterford 3 - 1 St Patrick's Athl..
Where is Waterford vs St Patrick's Athl. being played?
The match is being played at Waterford Regional Sports Centre.
What competition is Waterford vs St Patrick's Athl. part of?
Waterford vs St Patrick's Athl. is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Waterford vs St Patrick's Athl.?
Our statistical model gives Waterford a 28% chance of winning, St Patrick's Athl. a 42% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making St Patrick's Athl. the favourite.
Will both teams score in Waterford vs St Patrick's Athl.?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Waterford and St Patrick's Athl. will score (BTTS).
Will Waterford vs St Patrick's Athl. have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Waterford and St Patrick's Athl.?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Waterford and St Patrick's Athl. in?
Waterford (all comps): 1W-0D-1L in 2 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-W. St Patrick's Athl. (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Waterford's attack at 0.89x the league average against St Patrick's Athl.'s defence at 0.95x — combine the two and it projects 1.02 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — St Patrick's Athl.'s attack (0.97x) against Waterford's defence (1.10x) — and the away total comes out at 1.30.
The sample (3/39 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (11.5%), 0-1 (11.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
St Patrick's Athl. Win
28%
3.51
29%
3.44
42%
2.35
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.8%
Away win
1 – 0
10.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.02
Waterford xG
Total xG
2.32
1.30
St Patrick's Athl. xG
3.51
28%
Home win
3.44
29%
Draw
2.35
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.13
53%
BTTS No
1.89
Clean Sheet
27%
3.68
36%
2.76
Win to Nil
8%
12.91
15%
6.50
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.8 | 12.8 | 8.3 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.0 | 13.0 | 8.5 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.1 | 6.6 | 4.3 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 2.2 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Waterford vs St Patrick's Athl.?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Waterford and St Patrick's Athl. expected to score?
The model projects 1.02 expected goals for Waterford and 1.30 for St Patrick's Athl., a combined total of 2.32.
How confident is the prediction model for Waterford vs St Patrick's Athl.?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Waterford's recent record stands at 1W 0D 1L from 2 games, a 1.50 PPG return, with L-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for Waterford, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
St Patrick's Athl., meanwhile, have gone 0W 0D 2L across 2 games — 0.00 PPG, with L-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for St Patrick's Athl., so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Waterford by 1.50 — a real, if not enormous, edge over St Patrick's Athl. heading into this one.
Attack vs Defence
Waterford are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; St Patrick's Athl. are on 0.00 scored and 2.50 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: St Patrick's Athl. in 0%.
Last 2 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Waterford
Early Season
St Patrick's Athl.
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Waterford and St Patrick's Athl. in coming into this match?
Waterford have gone 1W 0D 1L in their last 2 games (1.50 PPG), while St Patrick's Athl. have gone 0W 0D 2L in their last 2 (0.00 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to April 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. The two were last together as recently as 10 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: St Patrick's Athl. won 3-0 on 20 Sep 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Waterford have gone 1W 1D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against St Patrick's Athl. — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Waterford
4
Draws
5
St Patrick's Athl.
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Waterford and St Patrick's Athl.?
From 10 meetings on record, Waterford have won 1, St Patrick's Athl. have won 5, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Waterford and St Patrick's Athl. last play each other?
They last met on 10 July 2026, when Waterford 1-1 St Patrick's Athl..
Who has won more matches between Waterford and St Patrick's Athl.?
St Patrick's Athl. have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Waterford home games / St Patrick's Athl. away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Waterford play St Patrick's Athl.?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Waterford's recent matches and 0% of St Patrick's Athl.'s, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Waterford vs St Patrick's Athl. usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Waterford's recent games and 50% of St Patrick's Athl.'s, pointing to a tighter contest.
Waterford cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over St Patrick's Athl..
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Waterford beat St Patrick's Athl. 3-1 at Waterford Regional Sports Centre, Regular Season - 4, in the Premier Division. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Waterford 1.02 xG and St Patrick's Athl. 1.30 xG, a combined 2.32. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Waterford beat their projection by 2.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Waterford attack 0.89 / defence 1.10 against St Patrick's Athl. attack 0.97 / defence 0.95, drawn from 3/39 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Waterford 28% | Draw 29% | St Patrick's Athl. 42%, with St Patrick's Athl. to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual Waterford win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. Over 3.5 was 20% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Waterford 50%, St Patrick's Athl. 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 25%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, Waterford arrived the stronger side — 1.50 PPG against 0.00. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Waterford scored 3 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm. St Patrick's Athl. scored 1 against a 0.00 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.