Waterford 1-2 Shamrock Rovers – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Shamrock Rovers at 36% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Waterford vs Shamrock Rovers encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Waterford host Shamrock Rovers at Waterford Regional Sports Centre in Premier Division, Regular Season - 8. Kick-off is scheduled for Monday 1 April 2024 at 17:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Waterford stand at 1W 0D 1L from 2 Premier Division matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Waterford have played only a handful of Premier Division games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Across all Premier Division games this season, Shamrock Rovers have recorded 6W 4D 0L from 10 outings — 2.20 PPG. Last five: W W W D W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 0.40. Defensively, 0.40 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Shamrock Rovers's away record: 2W 6D 2L from 10 road trips in Premier Division this season (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 2.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Shamrock Rovers are 0.70 PPG ahead (2.20 vs 1.50), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Waterford 0.89 xG and Shamrock Rovers 0.99 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Waterford attack 0.968 / defence 1.024 | Shamrock Rovers attack 0.904 / defence 0.811. League average goals — home 1.131 / away 1.064. Data: 7 Waterford games / 42 Shamrock Rovers games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Waterford 31% | Draw 32% | Shamrock Rovers 36%. Fair-value odds: Waterford 3.23 | Draw 3.12 | Shamrock Rovers 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 29% | BTTS probability 37% | Total xG 1.88. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 71% probability — total xG of 1.88 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 37% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Shamrock Rovers at 36% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Shamrock Rovers offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 1.88 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 29% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 1.8 goals per game.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Waterford vs Shamrock Rovers | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Waterford Regional Sports Centre • Kick-off: Monday 1 Apr 2024, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Waterford 31% | Draw 32% | Shamrock Rovers 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 29% | BTTS 37% | xG Waterford 0.89 / Shamrock Rovers 0.99 • Poisson strength factors: Waterford attack 0.968 / def 1.024 | Shamrock Rovers attack 0.904 / def 0.811 | league avg home 1.131 / away 1.064 • Poisson stance: Shamrock Rovers (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.89
Waterford xG
Expected Goals
0.99
Shamrock Rovers xG
37%
BTTS
56%
Over 1.5
29%
Over 2.5
12%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Waterford vs Shamrock Rovers kick off?
Waterford vs Shamrock Rovers kicked off at 17:00 on Monday 1 April 2024 at Waterford Regional Sports Centre.
What was the final score in Waterford vs Shamrock Rovers?
Waterford 1 - 2 Shamrock Rovers.
Where is Waterford vs Shamrock Rovers being played?
The match is being played at Waterford Regional Sports Centre.
What competition is Waterford vs Shamrock Rovers part of?
Waterford vs Shamrock Rovers is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Waterford vs Shamrock Rovers?
Our statistical model gives Waterford a 31% chance of winning, Shamrock Rovers a 36% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Shamrock Rovers the favourite.
Will both teams score in Waterford vs Shamrock Rovers?
Our model estimates a 37% probability that both Waterford and Shamrock Rovers will score (BTTS).
Will Waterford vs Shamrock Rovers have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 29%.
What is the head-to-head record between Waterford and Shamrock Rovers?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Waterford and Shamrock Rovers in?
Waterford (all comps): 1W-0D-1L in 2 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-W. Shamrock Rovers (all comps): 6W-4D-0L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.40 | L5 W-W-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Waterford's attack rating (0.97) and Shamrock Rovers's defence rating (0.81), the model arrives at 0.89 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Shamrock Rovers's attack versus Waterford's defence, projects 0.99 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 7/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 17.1%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.2%), 0-1 (13.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 46% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Shamrock Rovers Win
31%
3.20
32%
3.10
36%
2.74
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
15.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
15.1%
Away win
1 – 0
13.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.89
Waterford xG
Total xG
1.88
0.99
Shamrock Rovers xG
3.20
31%
Home win
3.10
32%
Draw
2.74
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
56%
Over 1.5
1.79
44%
Under 1.5
2.27
29%
Over 2.5
3.45
71%
Under 2.5
1.41
12%
Over 3.5
8.33
88%
Under 3.5
1.14
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
37%
BTTS Yes
2.70
63%
BTTS No
1.59
Clean Sheet
37%
2.68
41%
2.43
Win to Nil
12%
8.58
15%
6.67
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.3 | 15.1 | 7.5 | 2.5 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.6 | 13.4 | 6.6 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 6.0 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Waterford vs Shamrock Rovers?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.1%.
How many goals are Waterford and Shamrock Rovers expected to score?
The model projects 0.89 expected goals for Waterford and 0.99 for Shamrock Rovers, a combined total of 1.88.
How confident is the prediction model for Waterford vs Shamrock Rovers?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Waterford come into this having played 2 games, going 1W 0D 1L for 1.50 points per game. Their last five reads L-W. It's still early in the season for Waterford, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Shamrock Rovers sit at 2.00 PPG from 2 outings (1W 1D 0L), a run that reads D-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Shamrock Rovers, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Shamrock Rovers carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.50 PPG clear of Waterford — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Goals in Recent Form
Waterford are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Shamrock Rovers are on 2.00 scored and 1.00 conceded. Shamrock Rovers's attacking output running into Waterford's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
Defensively: Shamrock Rovers in 50% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 2 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Waterford
Early Season
Shamrock Rovers
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Waterford and Shamrock Rovers in coming into this match?
Waterford have gone 1W 0D 1L in their last 2 games (1.50 PPG), while Shamrock Rovers have gone 1W 1D 0L in their last 2 (2.00 PPG).
Have Waterford or Shamrock Rovers been keeping clean sheets recently?
Waterford have kept a clean sheet in 0% of their recent games, Shamrock Rovers in 50%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to May 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. The two were last together as recently as 19 June 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
Shamrock Rovers go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Waterford's record when hosting Shamrock Rovers specifically: 0W 1D 4L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Waterford
1
Draws
8
Shamrock Rovers
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Waterford and Shamrock Rovers?
From 10 meetings on record, Waterford have won 1, Shamrock Rovers have won 8, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Waterford and Shamrock Rovers last play each other?
They last met on 19 June 2026, when Waterford 0-2 Shamrock Rovers.
Who has won more matches between Waterford and Shamrock Rovers?
Shamrock Rovers have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Waterford home games / Shamrock Rovers away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Waterford play Shamrock Rovers?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Waterford's recent matches and 50% of Shamrock Rovers's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Waterford vs Shamrock Rovers usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Waterford's recent games and 50% of Shamrock Rovers's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Prediction vindicated as Shamrock Rovers edge out Waterford 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Shamrock Rovers beat Waterford 1-2 at Waterford Regional Sports Centre, Regular Season - 8, in the Premier Division. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Waterford 0.89 xG and Shamrock Rovers 0.99 xG, a combined 1.88. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Shamrock Rovers outscored their 0.99 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Waterford attack 0.97 / defence 1.02 against Shamrock Rovers attack 0.90 / defence 0.81, drawn from 7/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Waterford 31% | Draw 32% | Shamrock Rovers 36%, with Shamrock Rovers to win its most likely call at 36%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 29%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 56% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Waterford 50%, Shamrock Rovers 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, Shamrock Rovers arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 1.50. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Waterford shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.