Waterford 1-2 Finn Harps – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Finn Harps at 54%, yet other data sources diverge — this Waterford vs Finn Harps fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Waterford and Finn Harps meet at Waterford Regional Sports Centre in Premier Division, Regular Season - 13. This fixture gets under way on Monday 24 May 2021 at 19:45 UTC.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Waterford 0W, Finn Harps 1W, 0D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 10 Apr 2021, ended 1–2 with Finn Harps winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Waterford 0.68 xG and Finn Harps 1.44 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Waterford attack 0.566 / defence 1.679 | Finn Harps attack 0.688 / defence 1.296. League average goals — home 0.928 / away 1.245. Waterford's attack strength of 0.566 is below the league average — the 0.68 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Finn Harps bring a strong defensive rating of 1.296 — this is suppressing Waterford's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 12 Waterford games / 12 Finn Harps games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Waterford 17% | Draw 29% | Finn Harps 54%. Fair-value odds: Waterford 5.88 | Draw 3.45 | Finn Harps 1.85. Finn Harps hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 2.12. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.12 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Finn Harps as the most likely outcome at 54% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Finn Harps if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.12 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 36% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Waterford vs Finn Harps | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Waterford Regional Sports Centre • Kick-off: Monday 24 May 2021, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Waterford 17% | Draw 29% | Finn Harps 54% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 39% | xG Waterford 0.68 / Finn Harps 1.44 • Poisson strength factors: Waterford attack 0.566 / def 1.679 | Finn Harps attack 0.688 / def 1.296 | league avg home 0.928 / away 1.245 • Poisson stance: Finn Harps (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.68
Waterford xG
Expected Goals
1.44
Finn Harps xG
39%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Waterford vs Finn Harps kick off?
Waterford vs Finn Harps kicked off at 19:45 on Monday 24 May 2021 at Waterford Regional Sports Centre.
What was the final score in Waterford vs Finn Harps?
Waterford 1 - 2 Finn Harps.
Where is Waterford vs Finn Harps being played?
The match is being played at Waterford Regional Sports Centre.
What competition is Waterford vs Finn Harps part of?
Waterford vs Finn Harps is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Waterford vs Finn Harps?
Our statistical model gives Waterford a 17% chance of winning, Finn Harps a 54% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Finn Harps the favourite.
Will both teams score in Waterford vs Finn Harps?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Waterford and Finn Harps will score (BTTS).
Will Waterford vs Finn Harps have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Waterford and Finn Harps?
Record (1 meetings): Waterford 0W | Draws 0 | Finn Harps 1W.
What form are Waterford and Finn Harps in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Waterford's attack rating (0.57) and Finn Harps's defence rating (1.30), the model arrives at 0.68 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Finn Harps's attack (0.69x) against Waterford's defence (1.68x) — and the away total comes out at 1.44.
These ratings are built from 12/12 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.6%), 1-1 (13.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Finn Harps Win
17%
5.97
29%
3.46
54%
1.84
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
17.3%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
12.4%
Away win
0 – 0
12.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.68
Waterford xG
Total xG
2.12
1.44
Finn Harps xG
5.97
17%
Home win
3.46
29%
Draw
1.84
54%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.59
61%
BTTS No
1.63
Clean Sheet
24%
4.21
51%
1.98
Win to Nil
4%
25.12
28%
3.63
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.0 | 17.3 | 12.4 | 5.9 | 2.1 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 8.2 | 11.8 | 8.5 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 2.8 | 4.0 | 2.9 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Waterford vs Finn Harps?
Our Poisson model rates 0-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.8%.
How many goals are Waterford and Finn Harps expected to score?
The model projects 0.68 expected goals for Waterford and 1.44 for Finn Harps, a combined total of 2.12.
How confident is the prediction model for Waterford vs Finn Harps?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Waterford
Pre-Season
Finn Harps
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since April 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. It has been a while since the last meeting — 15 October 2021, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Waterford have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Waterford won 4-1 on 15 Oct 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Waterford have gone 1W 0D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Finn Harps — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Waterford
0
Draws
2
Finn Harps
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Waterford and Finn Harps?
From 4 meetings on record, Waterford have won 2, Finn Harps have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Waterford and Finn Harps last play each other?
They last met on 15 October 2021, when Waterford 4-1 Finn Harps.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Waterford home games / Finn Harps away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Prediction vindicated as Finn Harps edge out Waterford 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Finn Harps beat Waterford 1-2 at Waterford Regional Sports Centre, Regular Season - 13, in the Premier Division. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Waterford 0.68 xG and Finn Harps 1.44 xG, a combined 2.12. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Waterford attack 0.57 / defence 1.68 against Finn Harps attack 0.69 / defence 1.30, drawn from 12/12 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Waterford 17% | Draw 29% | Finn Harps 54%, with Finn Harps to win its most likely call at 54%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.