Waterford vs Dundalk – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model favours Waterford (47%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Waterford face Dundalk.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Premier Division clash, Regular Season - 31 as Waterford welcome Dundalk to Regional Sports Centre. Kick-off is set for Friday 11 September 2026 at 18:45 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Premier Division games this season, Waterford have gone 6W 3D 1L from 10 outings — a 2.10 PPG return. Last five: D W W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 0.80 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
Waterford's form when playing at home: 4W 5D 1L across 10 games at Regional Sports Centre this term (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Dundalk — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Premier Division fixtures this season — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D D L L W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.70. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
Dundalk away from home this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 away games — 1.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
On current form, Waterford have the edge — a 1.00 PPG advantage (2.10 vs 1.10) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H
The historical ledger comes down firmly in favour of Waterford: 5 wins from 10 previous clashes against 2 for Dundalk, with 3 draws across those contests.
The 10 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.3 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 26 Jun 2026, ended 3–2 with Waterford winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Waterford and goals. The home side's 5 wins from 10 meetings, combined with an average of 3.3 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading Patterns
Waterford in-play and half-time data (29 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they fail to score in 34% of games.
Dundalk in-play and half-time data (29 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 93% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 28% of the time; BTTS occurs in 79% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Waterford 55% and Dundalk 76% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Waterford 45% | Dundalk 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Waterford 1.87 xG and Dundalk 1.32 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Waterford attack 1.067 / defence 0.898 | Dundalk attack 1.122 / defence 1.189. League average goals — home 1.477 / away 1.306. Data: 65 Waterford games / 29 Dundalk games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Waterford 47% | Draw 29% | Dundalk 24%. Fair-value odds: Waterford 2.13 | Draw 3.45 | Dundalk 4.17. Waterford hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 65% | Total xG 3.19. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.19 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 65% reflects that both xG figures (1.87 / 1.32) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Waterford as the most likely outcome at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Waterford offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 3.19 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 62% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.3 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 65% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Waterford 70% | Dundalk 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Waterford vs Dundalk | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 31 | Venue: Regional Sports Centre • Kick-off: Friday 11 Sep 2026, 18:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Waterford 47% | Draw 29% | Dundalk 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 65% | xG Waterford 1.87 / Dundalk 1.32 • Poisson strength factors: Waterford attack 1.067 / def 0.898 | Dundalk attack 1.122 / def 1.189 | league avg home 1.477 / away 1.306 • Poisson stance: Waterford (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.87
Waterford xG
Expected Goals
1.32
Dundalk xG
65%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Waterford vs Dundalk kick off?
Waterford vs Dundalk is scheduled to kick off at 18:45 on Friday 11 September 2026 at Regional Sports Centre.
Where is Waterford vs Dundalk being played?
The match is being played at Regional Sports Centre.
What competition is Waterford vs Dundalk part of?
Waterford vs Dundalk is a Regular Season - 31 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Waterford vs Dundalk?
Our statistical model gives Waterford a 47% chance of winning, Dundalk a 24% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Waterford the favourite.
Will both teams score in Waterford vs Dundalk?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both Waterford and Dundalk will score (BTTS).
Will Waterford vs Dundalk have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between Waterford and Dundalk?
Record (10 meetings): Waterford 5W | Draws 3 | Dundalk 2W.
What form are Waterford and Dundalk in?
Waterford (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-W-W-D-W. Dundalk (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-D-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Waterford's attacking strength (1.07x league average) is weighed against Dundalk's defensive record (1.19x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.87. The same calculation in reverse, Dundalk's attack versus Waterford's defence, projects 1.32 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 65/29 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 2-0 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Waterford Win
47%
2.11
29%
3.49
24%
4.18
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.2%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
1 – 0
7.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.87
Waterford xG
Total xG
3.19
1.32
Dundalk xG
2.11
47%
Home win
3.49
29%
Draw
4.18
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.54
35%
BTTS No
2.86
Clean Sheet
27%
3.73
15%
6.51
Win to Nil
13%
7.86
4%
27.26
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.1 | 5.4 | 3.6 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.7 | 10.2 | 6.7 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 9.5 | 6.3 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.5 | 5.9 | 3.9 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.1 | 2.8 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Waterford vs Dundalk?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.5%.
How many goals are Waterford and Dundalk expected to score?
The model projects 1.87 expected goals for Waterford and 1.32 for Dundalk, a combined total of 3.19.
How confident is the prediction model for Waterford vs Dundalk?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Waterford's recent record stands at 7W 11D 11L from 29 games, a 1.10 PPG return, with D-W-W-D-W in the last five.
Dundalk, meanwhile, have gone 10W 10D 9L across 29 games — 1.38 PPG, with D-D-L-L-W in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Waterford on 1.10 PPG, Dundalk on 1.38. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Waterford have managed 4W 7D 3L from 14 games — 1.36 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Dundalk's away record stands at 4W 6D 4L across 14 trips, a 1.29 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Waterford are averaging 1.34 goals scored and 1.66 conceded per game recently; Dundalk are on 1.59 scored and 1.55 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Dundalk in 76%.
Last 29 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Waterford
Current Season
Dundalk
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Waterford and Dundalk in coming into this match?
Waterford have gone 7W 11D 11L in their last 29 games (1.10 PPG), while Dundalk have gone 10W 10D 9L in their last 29 (1.38 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Waterford at home or Dundalk away?
Waterford's home record (1.36 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Waterford at home: 1.36 PPG; Dundalk away: 1.29 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to June 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. The two were last together as recently as 26 June 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 13 Mar 2026, when Dundalk won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Waterford's record when hosting Dundalk specifically: 2W 2D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Waterford
3
Draws
2
Dundalk
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Waterford and Dundalk?
From 10 meetings on record, Waterford have won 5, Dundalk have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Waterford and Dundalk last play each other?
They last met on 26 June 2026, when Dundalk 2-3 Waterford.
Who has won more matches between Waterford and Dundalk?
Waterford have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Waterford are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
Dundalk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 93% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 29% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 21% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Waterford at 57%, Dundalk at 79%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 36% (Waterford) and 57% (Dundalk).
On the defensive side: Waterford have failed to score in 29% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Waterford home games / Dundalk away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Waterford play Dundalk?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of Waterford's games and 79% of Dundalk's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Waterford vs Dundalk usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 36% of Waterford's recent games and 57% of Dundalk's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Waterford and Dundalk tend to score early?
Waterford have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Dundalk in 93% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.