Waterford 2-1 Dundalk – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Waterford at 43% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Waterford vs Dundalk encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Premier Division clash, Regular Season - 30 as Waterford welcome Dundalk to Waterford Regional Sports Centre. Kick-off is set for Friday 13 September 2024 at 19:45 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Premier Division games this season, Waterford have gone 4W 0D 6L from 10 outings — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: L L W L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Waterford's form when playing at home: 5W 1D 4L across 10 games at Waterford Regional Sports Centre this term (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
Dundalk — All Games: 2W 2D 6L from 10 Premier Division fixtures this season — 0.80 PPG. Last five: D L D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Dundalk away from home this season: 1W 3D 6L from 10 away games — 0.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Waterford at 1.20 PPG versus Dundalk's 0.80. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 3 wins apiece for Waterford, 1 for Dundalk and 2 shared spoils from 6 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 28 Jun 2024, ended 2–0 with Waterford winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Waterford in-play and half-time data (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
Dundalk in-play and half-time data (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); they fail to score in 50% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Waterford 47% versus Dundalk 40%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Waterford 47% | Dundalk 30%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Waterford 1.38 xG and Dundalk 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Waterford attack 0.949 / defence 1.185 | Dundalk attack 0.924 / defence 1.060. League average goals — home 1.368 / away 0.964. Data: 29 Waterford games / 65 Dundalk games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Waterford 43% | Draw 30% | Dundalk 27%. Fair-value odds: Waterford 2.33 | Draw 3.33 | Dundalk 3.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.43. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.43 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Waterford as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Waterford offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.43 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 44% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Waterford 50% | Dundalk 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Waterford vs Dundalk | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Waterford Regional Sports Centre • Kick-off: Friday 13 Sep 2024, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Waterford 43% | Draw 30% | Dundalk 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 50% | xG Waterford 1.38 / Dundalk 1.05 • Poisson strength factors: Waterford attack 0.949 / def 1.185 | Dundalk attack 0.924 / def 1.060 | league avg home 1.368 / away 0.964 • Poisson stance: Waterford (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.38
Waterford xG
Expected Goals
1.05
Dundalk xG
50%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Waterford vs Dundalk kick off?
Waterford vs Dundalk kicked off at 19:45 on Friday 13 September 2024 at Waterford Regional Sports Centre.
What was the final score in Waterford vs Dundalk?
Waterford 2 - 1 Dundalk.
Where is Waterford vs Dundalk being played?
The match is being played at Waterford Regional Sports Centre.
What competition is Waterford vs Dundalk part of?
Waterford vs Dundalk is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Waterford vs Dundalk?
Our statistical model gives Waterford a 43% chance of winning, Dundalk a 27% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Waterford the favourite.
Will both teams score in Waterford vs Dundalk?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Waterford and Dundalk will score (BTTS).
Will Waterford vs Dundalk have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Waterford and Dundalk?
Record (6 meetings): Waterford 3W | Draws 2 | Dundalk 1W.
What form are Waterford and Dundalk in?
Waterford (all comps): 4W-0D-6L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-L-W-L-L. Dundalk (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-L-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Waterford's attacking strength (0.95x league average) is weighed against Dundalk's defensive record (1.06x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.38. The same calculation in reverse, Dundalk's attack versus Waterford's defence, projects 1.05 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 29/65 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.4%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.5%), 1-0 (10.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Waterford Win
43%
2.35
30%
3.30
27%
3.68
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.1%
Home win
0 – 1
9.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.38
Waterford xG
Total xG
2.43
1.05
Dundalk xG
2.35
43%
Home win
3.30
30%
Draw
3.68
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.98
50%
BTTS No
2.02
Clean Sheet
35%
2.87
25%
3.96
Win to Nil
15%
6.76
7%
14.57
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.8 | 9.3 | 4.9 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.1 | 12.8 | 6.7 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.3 | 8.8 | 4.6 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 4.0 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Waterford vs Dundalk?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Waterford and Dundalk expected to score?
The model projects 1.38 expected goals for Waterford and 1.05 for Dundalk, a combined total of 2.43.
How confident is the prediction model for Waterford vs Dundalk?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Waterford's recent record stands at 13W 4D 13L from 30 games, a 1.43 PPG return, with L-L-W-L-L in the last five.
Dundalk, meanwhile, have gone 6W 9D 15L across 30 games — 0.90 PPG, with D-L-D-L-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Waterford by 0.53 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Dundalk heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Waterford have managed 7W 2D 6L from 15 games — 1.53 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Dundalk's away record stands at 2W 4D 9L across 15 trips, a 0.67 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Waterford come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Waterford are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game recently; Dundalk are on 0.83 scored and 1.37 conceded.
Last 30 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Waterford
Current Season
Dundalk
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Waterford and Dundalk in coming into this match?
Waterford have gone 13W 4D 13L in their last 30 games (1.43 PPG), while Dundalk have gone 6W 9D 15L in their last 30 (0.90 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Waterford at home or Dundalk away?
Waterford's home record (1.53 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Waterford at home: 1.53 PPG; Dundalk away: 0.67 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to June 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. The two were last together as recently as 26 June 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 13 Mar 2026, when Dundalk won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Waterford's record when hosting Dundalk specifically: 2W 2D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Waterford
3
Draws
2
Dundalk
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Waterford and Dundalk?
From 10 meetings on record, Waterford have won 5, Dundalk have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Waterford and Dundalk last play each other?
They last met on 26 June 2026, when Dundalk 2-3 Waterford.
Who has won more matches between Waterford and Dundalk?
Waterford have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Waterford see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Dundalk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Waterford 60%, Dundalk 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Waterford) and 40% (Dundalk).
On the defensive side: Waterford have failed to score in 33% of games; Dundalk in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Waterford home games / Dundalk away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Waterford play Dundalk?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Waterford's games and 67% of Dundalk's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Waterford vs Dundalk usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 53% of Waterford's recent games and 40% of Dundalk's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Waterford and Dundalk tend to score early?
Waterford have had a goal before half-time in 53% of their recent matches, Dundalk in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Waterford edge out Dundalk 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Waterford beat Dundalk 2-1 at Waterford Regional Sports Centre, Regular Season - 30, in the Premier Division. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Waterford 1.38 xG and Dundalk 1.05 xG, a combined 2.43. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Waterford attack 0.95 / defence 1.19 against Dundalk attack 0.92 / defence 1.06, drawn from 29/65 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Waterford 43% | Draw 30% | Dundalk 27%, with Waterford to win its most likely call at 43%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Waterford 47%, Dundalk 30%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Waterford's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.
Dundalk's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Waterford arrived the stronger side — 1.43 PPG against 0.90. That form edge translated into the three points.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.