Waterford 4-1 Dundalk – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Dundalk at 34%, yet other data sources diverge — this Waterford vs Dundalk fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Premier Division clash, Regular Season - 15 as Waterford welcome Dundalk to Waterford Regional Sports Centre. Kick-off is set for Friday 10 May 2024 at 19:45 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Premier Division games this season, Waterford have gone 1W 0D 1L from 2 outings — a 1.50 PPG return. Last five: L W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Waterford have played only a handful of Premier Division games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Dundalk — All Games: 6W 0D 4L from 10 Premier Division fixtures this season — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W L W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Dundalk away from home this season: 4W 0D 6L from 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Waterford at 1.50 PPG versus Dundalk's 1.80. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Waterford, 1 for Dundalk and 2 shared spoils from 4 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.8 per contest from 4 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 15 Mar 2024, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.8 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Waterford 1.05 xG and Dundalk 1.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Waterford attack 0.771 / defence 1.220 | Dundalk attack 0.935 / defence 1.223. League average goals — home 1.109 / away 0.927. Waterford's attack strength of 0.771 is below the league average — the 1.05 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Dundalk bring a strong defensive rating of 1.223 — this is suppressing Waterford's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 14 Waterford games / 50 Dundalk games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Waterford 33% | Draw 33% | Dundalk 34%. Fair-value odds: Waterford 3.03 | Draw 3.03 | Dundalk 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.10. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.10 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Dundalk as the most likely outcome at 34% — marginal model lean. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Dundalk offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.10 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 35% — reasonable confidence, supported by H2H averaging 1.8 goals per meeting.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Waterford vs Dundalk | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Waterford Regional Sports Centre • Kick-off: Friday 10 May 2024, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Waterford 33% | Draw 33% | Dundalk 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 44% | xG Waterford 1.05 / Dundalk 1.06 • Poisson strength factors: Waterford attack 0.771 / def 1.220 | Dundalk attack 0.935 / def 1.223 | league avg home 1.109 / away 0.927 • Poisson stance: Dundalk (34%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.05
Waterford xG
Expected Goals
1.06
Dundalk xG
44%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Waterford vs Dundalk kick off?
Waterford vs Dundalk kicked off at 19:45 on Friday 10 May 2024 at Waterford Regional Sports Centre.
What was the final score in Waterford vs Dundalk?
Waterford 4 - 1 Dundalk.
Where is Waterford vs Dundalk being played?
The match is being played at Waterford Regional Sports Centre.
What competition is Waterford vs Dundalk part of?
Waterford vs Dundalk is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Waterford vs Dundalk?
Our statistical model gives Waterford a 33% chance of winning, Dundalk a 34% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Dundalk the favourite.
Will both teams score in Waterford vs Dundalk?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Waterford and Dundalk will score (BTTS).
Will Waterford vs Dundalk have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between Waterford and Dundalk?
Record (4 meetings): Waterford 1W | Draws 2 | Dundalk 1W.
What form are Waterford and Dundalk in?
Waterford (all comps): 1W-0D-1L in 2 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-W. Dundalk (all comps): 6W-0D-4L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Waterford's attacking strength (0.77x league average) is weighed against Dundalk's defensive record (1.22x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.05. The same calculation in reverse, Dundalk's attack versus Waterford's defence, projects 1.06 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 14/50 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.3%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.0%), 0-1 (11.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Dundalk Win
33%
3.01
33%
3.04
34%
2.95
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.9%
Away win
1 – 0
12.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.05
Waterford xG
Total xG
2.10
1.06
Dundalk xG
3.01
33%
Home win
3.04
33%
Draw
2.95
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.28
56%
BTTS No
1.78
Clean Sheet
35%
2.88
35%
2.85
Win to Nil
12%
8.65
12%
8.41
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.2 | 12.9 | 6.8 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.8 | 13.5 | 7.1 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 7.1 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 2.5 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Waterford vs Dundalk?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.3%.
How many goals are Waterford and Dundalk expected to score?
The model projects 1.05 expected goals for Waterford and 1.06 for Dundalk, a combined total of 2.10.
How confident is the prediction model for Waterford vs Dundalk?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 34%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Waterford's recent record stands at 1W 0D 1L from 2 games, a 1.50 PPG return, with L-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for Waterford, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Dundalk, meanwhile, have gone 2W 0D 0L across 2 games — 3.00 PPG, with W-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Dundalk, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Dundalk by 1.50 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Waterford heading into this one.
Goals in Recent Form
Waterford are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Dundalk are on 3.50 scored and 0.50 conceded. Dundalk's attacking output running into Waterford's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
Defensively: Dundalk in 50% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 2 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Waterford
Early Season
Dundalk
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Waterford and Dundalk in coming into this match?
Waterford have gone 1W 0D 1L in their last 2 games (1.50 PPG), while Dundalk have gone 2W 0D 0L in their last 2 (3.00 PPG).
Have Waterford or Dundalk been keeping clean sheets recently?
Waterford have kept a clean sheet in 0% of their recent games, Dundalk in 50%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to June 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. The two were last together as recently as 26 June 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 13 Mar 2026, when Dundalk won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Waterford's record when hosting Dundalk specifically: 2W 2D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Waterford
3
Draws
2
Dundalk
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Waterford and Dundalk?
From 10 meetings on record, Waterford have won 5, Dundalk have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Waterford and Dundalk last play each other?
They last met on 26 June 2026, when Dundalk 2-3 Waterford.
Who has won more matches between Waterford and Dundalk?
Waterford have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Waterford home games / Dundalk away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Waterford play Dundalk?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Waterford's recent matches and 50% of Dundalk's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Waterford vs Dundalk usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Waterford's recent games and 50% of Dundalk's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Dominant Waterford run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Dundalk.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Waterford beat Dundalk 4-1 at Waterford Regional Sports Centre, Regular Season - 15, in the Premier Division. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Waterford 1.05 xG and Dundalk 1.06 xG, a combined 2.10. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Waterford beat their projection by 3.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Waterford attack 0.77 / defence 1.22 against Dundalk attack 0.94 / defence 1.22, drawn from 14/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Waterford 33% | Draw 33% | Dundalk 34%, with Dundalk to win its most likely call at 34%. The actual Waterford win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. Over 3.5 was 16% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Waterford 50%, Dundalk 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, Dundalk arrived the stronger side — 3.00 PPG against 1.50. Form was overturned, with Waterford winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Waterford scored 4 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm. Dundalk managed 1 against a 3.50 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 0.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.