UCD 1-3 St Patrick's Athl. – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates St Patrick's Athl. at 55% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this UCD vs St Patrick's Athl. encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Premier Division encounter, Regular Season - 18 sees St Patrick's Athl. travel to UCD Bowl to take on UCD. The game is scheduled for Friday 2 June 2023, 19:45 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Premier Division games this season, UCD have gone 4W 1D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: W D W L W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
In front of their own supporters this season, UCD have posted 4W 0D 6L at UCD Bowl — 1.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
St Patrick's Athl. — All Games: 6W 1D 3L from 10 Premier Division fixtures this season — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W W L L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, St Patrick's Athl. have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. St Patrick's Athl. are 0.60 PPG ahead (1.90 vs 1.30), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H Record
St Patrick's Athl. have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 5 of the last 5 encounters against UCD's 0 victories.
The 5 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 2.8 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 31 Mar 2023, ended 0–3 with St Patrick's Athl. winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. St Patrick's Athl. have won 5 of 5 previous encounters, and at 2.8 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
In-Play Data
UCD trading profile (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); they fail to score in 47% of games.
St Patrick's Athl. trading profile (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — UCD 45% versus St Patrick's Athl. 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (UCD 47% | St Patrick's Athl. 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects UCD 1.12 xG and St Patrick's Athl. 1.86 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: UCD attack 0.672 / defence 1.250 | St Patrick's Athl. attack 1.285 / defence 1.238. League average goals — home 1.345 / away 1.160. UCD's attack strength of 0.672 is below the league average — the 1.12 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. St Patrick's Athl. bring a strong defensive rating of 1.238 — this is suppressing UCD's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. St Patrick's Athl. have an above-average attack strength of 1.285 — the away xG of 1.86 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 53 UCD games / 54 St Patrick's Athl. games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: UCD 23% | Draw 23% | St Patrick's Athl. 55%. Fair-value odds: UCD 4.35 | Draw 4.35 | St Patrick's Athl. 1.82. The model has a clear lean to St Patrick's Athl. (55%) — a 32pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.98. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.98 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates St Patrick's Athl. as the most likely outcome at 55% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.98 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 57% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.8 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 57%. Form rates corroborate: UCD 50% | St Patrick's Athl. 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: UCD vs St Patrick's Athl. | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: UCD Bowl • Kick-off: Friday 2 Jun 2023, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: UCD 23% | Draw 23% | St Patrick's Athl. 55% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 57% | xG UCD 1.12 / St Patrick's Athl. 1.86 • Poisson strength factors: UCD attack 0.672 / def 1.250 | St Patrick's Athl. attack 1.285 / def 1.238 | league avg home 1.345 / away 1.160 • Poisson stance: St Patrick's Athl. (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.12
UCD xG
Expected Goals
1.86
St Patrick's Athl. xG
57%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does UCD vs St Patrick's Athl. kick off?
UCD vs St Patrick's Athl. kicked off at 19:45 on Friday 2 June 2023 at UCD Bowl.
What was the final score in UCD vs St Patrick's Athl.?
UCD 1 - 3 St Patrick's Athl..
Where is UCD vs St Patrick's Athl. being played?
The match is being played at UCD Bowl.
What competition is UCD vs St Patrick's Athl. part of?
UCD vs St Patrick's Athl. is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win UCD vs St Patrick's Athl.?
Our statistical model gives UCD a 23% chance of winning, St Patrick's Athl. a 55% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making St Patrick's Athl. the favourite.
Will both teams score in UCD vs St Patrick's Athl.?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both UCD and St Patrick's Athl. will score (BTTS).
Will UCD vs St Patrick's Athl. have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between UCD and St Patrick's Athl.?
Record (5 meetings): UCD 0W | Draws 0 | St Patrick's Athl. 5W.
What form are UCD and St Patrick's Athl. in?
UCD (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-D-W-L-W. St Patrick's Athl. (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-W-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates UCD's attack at 0.67x the league average against St Patrick's Athl.'s defence at 1.24x — combine the two and it projects 1.12 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, St Patrick's Athl.'s attack versus UCD's defence, projects 1.86 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 53/54 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.8%), 0-2 (8.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
St Patrick's Athl. Win
23%
4.42
23%
4.42
55%
1.83
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.8%
Away win
0 – 1
9.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.12
UCD xG
Total xG
2.98
1.86
St Patrick's Athl. xG
4.42
23%
Home win
4.42
23%
Draw
1.83
55%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.76
43%
BTTS No
2.32
Clean Sheet
16%
6.44
33%
3.06
Win to Nil
4%
28.46
18%
5.59
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.1 | 9.4 | 8.8 | 5.5 | 2.5 | 0.9 |
| 1 | 5.7 | 10.6 | 9.8 | 6.1 | 2.8 | 1.1 |
| 2 | 3.2 | 5.9 | 5.5 | 3.4 | 1.6 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 2.2 | 2.1 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for UCD vs St Patrick's Athl.?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.9%.
How many goals are UCD and St Patrick's Athl. expected to score?
The model projects 1.12 expected goals for UCD and 1.86 for St Patrick's Athl., a combined total of 2.98.
How confident is the prediction model for UCD vs St Patrick's Athl.?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
UCD's recent record stands at 8W 8D 22L from 38 games, a 0.84 PPG return, with W-D-W-L-W in the last five.
St Patrick's Athl., meanwhile, have gone 18W 9D 11L across 38 games — 1.66 PPG, with W-W-L-L-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours St Patrick's Athl. by 0.82 — a real, if not enormous, edge over UCD heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, UCD have managed 4W 5D 10L from 19 games — 0.89 PPG in front of their own supporters.
St Patrick's Athl.'s away record stands at 8W 5D 6L across 19 trips, a 1.53 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, St Patrick's Athl. come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
UCD are averaging 0.82 goals scored and 1.79 conceded per game recently; St Patrick's Athl. are on 1.55 scored and 1.03 conceded.
Defensively: St Patrick's Athl. in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 38 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
UCD
Current Season
St Patrick's Athl.
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are UCD and St Patrick's Athl. in coming into this match?
UCD have gone 8W 8D 22L in their last 38 games (0.84 PPG), while St Patrick's Athl. have gone 18W 9D 11L in their last 38 (1.66 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — UCD at home or St Patrick's Athl. away?
St Patrick's Athl.'s away record (1.53 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — UCD at home: 0.89 PPG; St Patrick's Athl. away: 1.53 PPG.
Have UCD or St Patrick's Athl. been keeping clean sheets recently?
UCD have kept a clean sheet in 13% of their recent games, St Patrick's Athl. in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to March 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. It has been a while since the last meeting — 25 August 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
St Patrick's Athl. have won the last 8 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 30 Jun 2023, when St Patrick's Athl. won 7-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
UCD's record when hosting St Patrick's Athl. specifically: 0W 0D 4L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
0
UCD
0
Draws
8
St Patrick's Athl.
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between UCD and St Patrick's Athl.?
From 8 meetings on record, UCD have won 0, St Patrick's Athl. have won 8, and 0 have been drawn.
When did UCD and St Patrick's Athl. last play each other?
They last met on 25 August 2023, when UCD 0-1 St Patrick's Athl..
Who has won more matches between UCD and St Patrick's Athl.?
St Patrick's Athl. have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
UCD see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
St Patrick's Athl. see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — UCD 47%, St Patrick's Athl. 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (UCD) and 53% (St Patrick's Athl.).
On the defensive side: St Patrick's Athl. in 32%; UCD have failed to score in 47% of games; St Patrick's Athl. in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = UCD home games / St Patrick's Athl. away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when UCD play St Patrick's Athl.?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of UCD's recent matches and 47% of St Patrick's Athl.'s, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is UCD vs St Patrick's Athl. usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of UCD's recent games and 53% of St Patrick's Athl.'s, pointing to a tighter contest.
St Patrick's Athl. cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over UCD.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
St Patrick's Athl. beat UCD 1-3 at UCD Bowl, Regular Season - 18, in the Premier Division. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting UCD 1.12 xG and St Patrick's Athl. 1.86 xG, a combined 2.98. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. St Patrick's Athl. outscored their 1.86 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of UCD attack 0.67 / defence 1.25 against St Patrick's Athl. attack 1.28 / defence 1.24, drawn from 53/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it UCD 23% | Draw 23% | St Patrick's Athl. 55%, with St Patrick's Athl. to win its most likely call at 55%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 35% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (UCD 47%, St Patrick's Athl. 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
UCD's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did.
St Patrick's Athl.'s trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, St Patrick's Athl. arrived the stronger side — 1.66 PPG against 0.84. Form held, and they took the win. UCD (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.53 concession average — a leakier day than usual. St Patrick's Athl. (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.53 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.