UCD 0-0 Shelbourne – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Shelbourne at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this UCD vs Shelbourne fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
UCD Bowl plays host to UCD versus Shelbourne in Premier Division, Regular Season - 3. Kick-off: Monday 28 February 2022 at 19:45 UTC.
Form & Momentum
UCD have collected 3.00 PPG across 1 Premier Division outings this season: 1W 0D 0L. Last five: W. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. UCD have played only a handful of Premier Division games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects UCD 0.85 xG and Shelbourne 1.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: UCD attack 0.692 / defence 0.955 | Shelbourne attack 0.995 / defence 0.956. League average goals — home 1.286 / away 1.221. UCD's attack strength of 0.692 is below the league average — the 0.85 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 2 UCD games / 2 Shelbourne games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: UCD 27% | Draw 30% | Shelbourne 43%. Fair-value odds: UCD 3.70 | Draw 3.33 | Shelbourne 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 2.01. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.01 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Shelbourne as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Shelbourne if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.01 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 33% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (2 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: UCD vs Shelbourne | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: UCD Bowl • Kick-off: Monday 28 Feb 2022, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: UCD 27% | Draw 30% | Shelbourne 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% | BTTS 39% | xG UCD 0.85 / Shelbourne 1.16 • Poisson strength factors: UCD attack 0.692 / def 0.955 | Shelbourne attack 0.995 / def 0.956 | league avg home 1.286 / away 1.221 • Poisson stance: Shelbourne (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.85
UCD xG
Expected Goals
1.16
Shelbourne xG
39%
BTTS
60%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does UCD vs Shelbourne kick off?
UCD vs Shelbourne kicked off at 19:45 on Monday 28 February 2022 at UCD Bowl.
What was the final score in UCD vs Shelbourne?
UCD 0 - 0 Shelbourne.
Where is UCD vs Shelbourne being played?
The match is being played at UCD Bowl.
What competition is UCD vs Shelbourne part of?
UCD vs Shelbourne is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win UCD vs Shelbourne?
Our statistical model gives UCD a 27% chance of winning, Shelbourne a 43% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Shelbourne the favourite.
Will both teams score in UCD vs Shelbourne?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both UCD and Shelbourne will score (BTTS).
Will UCD vs Shelbourne have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%.
What is the head-to-head record between UCD and Shelbourne?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are UCD and Shelbourne in?
UCD (all comps): 1W-0D-0L in 1 | 3.00 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
UCD's attacking strength (0.69x league average) is weighed against Shelbourne's defensive record (0.96x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.85. Flip it around — Shelbourne's attack (0.99x) against UCD's defence (0.95x) — and the away total comes out at 1.16.
The sample (2/2 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 15.1%. Close behind: 1-1 (14.9%), 0-1 (13.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Shelbourne Win
27%
3.73
30%
3.31
43%
2.33
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.5%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.4%
Draw
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.85
UCD xG
Total xG
2.01
1.16
Shelbourne xG
3.73
27%
Home win
3.31
30%
Draw
2.33
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.54
61%
BTTS No
1.65
Clean Sheet
31%
3.19
43%
2.34
Win to Nil
8%
11.89
18%
5.45
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.4 | 15.5 | 9.0 | 3.5 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.4 | 13.2 | 7.7 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 4.8 | 5.6 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for UCD vs Shelbourne?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are UCD and Shelbourne expected to score?
The model projects 0.85 expected goals for UCD and 1.16 for Shelbourne, a combined total of 2.01.
How confident is the prediction model for UCD vs Shelbourne?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
UCD
Pre-Season
Shelbourne
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since February 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. It has been a while since the last meeting — 27 October 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Shelbourne go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Shelbourne won 0-4 on 7 Jul 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, UCD have gone 0W 2D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Shelbourne — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
0
UCD
3
Draws
5
Shelbourne
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between UCD and Shelbourne?
From 8 meetings on record, UCD have won 0, Shelbourne have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did UCD and Shelbourne last play each other?
They last met on 27 October 2023, when Shelbourne 3-2 UCD.
Who has won more matches between UCD and Shelbourne?
Shelbourne have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = UCD home games / Shelbourne away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Stalemate at UCD's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
UCD and Shelbourne finished level at 0-0 at UCD Bowl, Regular Season - 3, in the Premier Division. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting UCD 0.85 xG and Shelbourne 1.16 xG, a combined 2.01. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. UCD fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Shelbourne landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of UCD attack 0.69 / defence 0.95 against Shelbourne attack 0.99 / defence 0.96, drawn from 2/2 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it UCD 27% | Draw 30% | Shelbourne 43%, with Shelbourne to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 60% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.