UCD 0-5 Derry City – Result & Analysis

Poisson model favours Derry City (62%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as UCD face Derry City.

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Analysis

Derry City make the trip to UCD Bowl to face UCD in Premier Division (matchday 26). The match kicks off on Wednesday 6 September 2023 at 20:45 UK time.

Current Form

UCD's record over their last 10 games: 1W 1D 8L (0.40 PPG). Last five: L L D L L. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 3.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 3.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly.

At home, UCD have gone 2W 2D 6L in their last 10 home games (0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.

Derry City (all games): 4W 4D 2L across their last 10 — 1.60 points per game. Last five: D W W D W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.

Derry City's away record over their last 10 away games: 4W 3D 3L (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

The travelling side arrive in better shape. Derry City are 1.20 PPG clear of UCD over their recent games (1.60 vs 0.40). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.

H2H Analysis

Across the 6 H2H matches in our data, Derry City have the stronger record — 6 wins to UCD's 0, with 0 draws.

These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.8 per game across the 6 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 19 May 2023, ended UCD 1–4 Derry City — a Derry City win.

The H2H data backs the away side. Derry City have won 6 of 6 H2H matches, and at 3.8 goals per game the goals market also points upward — the away win and Over 2.5 combination has a head-to-head case.

Trading & In-Play

UCD — key trading statistics (last 64 games, 32 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 66% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; of the 4 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they fail to score in 50% of games.

Derry City — key trading statistics (last 64 games, 32 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 63% of the time; of the 28 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; of the 10 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 30%; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — UCD 44% versus Derry City 45%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (UCD 53% | Derry City 41%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: UCD surrender their half-time lead 25% of the time, while Derry City have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 30% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects UCD 0.84 xG and Derry City 1.89 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: UCD attack 0.660 / defence 1.417 | Derry City attack 1.258 / defence 0.847. League average goals — home 1.498 / away 1.062. UCD's attack rating of 0.660 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.84. Derry City have an above-average attack rating of 1.258, which lifts their away xG to 1.89. UCD's defence rating of 1.417 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Derry City's projected output up. Data: built from UCD's last 64 games and Derry City's last 64.

Result probabilities: UCD 16% | Draw 22% | Derry City 62%. Fair-value odds: UCD 6.25 | Draw 4.60 | Derry City 1.61. The model has a clear lean to Derry City (62%) — a 40pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS Yes probability 48% | Total xG 2.73. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.73 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS No at 52% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, Derry City are the pick at 62% — clear model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

The Poisson model projects 2.73 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 51% — reasonable conviction, supported by the H2H data averaging 3.8 goals per game across 6 H2H matches.

Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: UCD 40% (last 10 home games) | Derry City 60% (last 10 away games).

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