UCD 1-2 Bohemians – Result & Analysis

Poisson model favours Bohemians (46%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as UCD face Bohemians.

✍️ Match Preview

Pre-Match Analysis

UCD and Bohemians meet at UCD Bowl in Premier Division (matchday 33). This fixture gets under way on Thursday 12 October 2023 at 20:45 UK time.

Form

UCD (all games): 0W 2D 8L across their last 10 — 0.20 PPG. Last five: L L L D L. They are averaging 0.20 goals per game and conceding 2.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.70 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.

UCD's form when playing at home: 1W 2D 7L across their last 10 home games (0.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.50 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game.

Bohemians's record over their last 10 games: 4W 5D 1L (1.70 PPG). Last five: D L D D W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.20. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

When travelling, Bohemians have posted 0W 6D 4L from their last 10 away outings — 0.60 PPG. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.

Bohemians arrive in superior form — a 1.50 PPG advantage (1.70 vs 0.20) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.

H2H Analysis

The head-to-head sample leans to Bohemians, who have 5 wins from 7 H2H matches compared to 0 for the hosts, with 2 draws.

The 7 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 28 Jul 2023, ended UCD 0–2 Bohemians — a Bohemians win.

Bohemians have the better head-to-head record despite being the visitors — 5 wins from 7 H2H matches. Home advantage alone is not a reason to dismiss that.

Trading & In-Play

UCD — key trading statistics (last 68 games, 34 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 65% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; of the 4 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they fail to score in 53% of games.

Bohemians — key trading statistics (last 68 games, 34 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 56% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 84% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 52% of those occasions; of the 22 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 32%; of the 20 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 30%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — UCD 41% versus Bohemians 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (UCD 53% | Bohemians 47%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: UCD surrender their half-time lead 25% of the time, while Bohemians have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 30% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects UCD 0.79 xG and Bohemians 1.22 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: UCD attack 0.614 / defence 1.509 | Bohemians attack 0.838 / defence 0.844. League average goals — home 1.532 / away 0.966. UCD's attack rating of 0.614 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.79. UCD's defence rating of 1.509 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Bohemians's projected output up. Data: built from UCD's last 68 games and Bohemians's last 68.

Result probabilities: UCD 24% | Draw 30% | Bohemians 46%. Fair-value odds: UCD 4.22 | Draw 3.29 | Bohemians 2.18. Bohemians hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS Yes probability 39% | Total xG 2.02. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.02 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 61% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Bohemians as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Bohemians if the outright odds are short.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.02 combined xG gives a 67% probability to Under 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 61%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: UCD 40% (last 10 home games) | Bohemians 50% (last 10 away games).

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