St Patrick's Athl. 1-0 Sligo Rovers – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates St Patrick's Athl. at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this St Patrick's Athl. vs Sligo Rovers fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Premier Division clash, Regular Season - 27 as St Patrick's Athl. welcome Sligo Rovers to Richmond Park. Kick-off is set for Sunday 14 August 2022 at 17:00 UTC.
Form Guide
St Patrick's Athl. — All Games: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Premier Division outings this season, averaging 1.30 points per game. Last five: W D L W D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for St Patrick's Athl., so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Richmond Park, St Patrick's Athl. have gone 4W 3D 3L this season (10 games, 1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Sligo Rovers stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Premier Division matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W D W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Sligo Rovers, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sligo Rovers's form when playing away from home: 2W 4D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.30 PPG (St Patrick's Athl.) versus 1.50 (Sligo Rovers). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
In-Play Profile
St Patrick's Athl. in-play tendencies (60 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (home games).
Sligo Rovers in-play tendencies (60 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — St Patrick's Athl. 50% versus Sligo Rovers 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (St Patrick's Athl. 50% | Sligo Rovers 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects St Patrick's Athl. 1.37 xG and Sligo Rovers 1.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: St Patrick's Athl. attack 1.082 / defence 1.037 | Sligo Rovers attack 0.974 / defence 0.983. League average goals — home 1.291 / away 1.056. Data: 60 St Patrick's Athl. games / 60 Sligo Rovers games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: St Patrick's Athl. 43% | Draw 28% | Sligo Rovers 29%. Fair-value odds: St Patrick's Athl. 2.33 | Draw 3.57 | Sligo Rovers 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.44. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.44 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is St Patrick's Athl. at 43% — marginal model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on St Patrick's Athl. offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.44 combined xG gives a 44% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 49% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: St Patrick's Athl. 50% | Sligo Rovers 60%.
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🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: St Patrick's Athl. vs Sligo Rovers | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Richmond Park • Kick-off: Sunday 14 Aug 2022, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: St Patrick's Athl. 43% | Draw 28% | Sligo Rovers 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 49% | xG St Patrick's Athl. 1.37 / Sligo Rovers 1.07 • Poisson strength factors: St Patrick's Athl. attack 1.082 / def 1.037 | Sligo Rovers attack 0.974 / def 0.983 | league avg home 1.291 / away 1.056 • Poisson stance: St Patrick's Athl. (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.37
St Patrick's Athl. xG
Expected Goals
1.07
Sligo Rovers xG
49%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does St Patrick's Athl. vs Sligo Rovers kick off?
St Patrick's Athl. vs Sligo Rovers kicked off at 17:00 on Sunday 14 August 2022 at Richmond Park.
What was the final score in St Patrick's Athl. vs Sligo Rovers?
St Patrick's Athl. 1 - 0 Sligo Rovers.
Where is St Patrick's Athl. vs Sligo Rovers being played?
The match is being played at Richmond Park.
What competition is St Patrick's Athl. vs Sligo Rovers part of?
St Patrick's Athl. vs Sligo Rovers is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win St Patrick's Athl. vs Sligo Rovers?
Our statistical model gives St Patrick's Athl. a 43% chance of winning, Sligo Rovers a 29% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making St Patrick's Athl. the favourite.
Will both teams score in St Patrick's Athl. vs Sligo Rovers?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both St Patrick's Athl. and Sligo Rovers will score (BTTS).
Will St Patrick's Athl. vs Sligo Rovers have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between St Patrick's Athl. and Sligo Rovers?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are St Patrick's Athl. and Sligo Rovers in?
St Patrick's Athl. (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-L-W-D. Sligo Rovers (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-D-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
St Patrick's Athl.'s attacking strength (1.08x league average) is weighed against Sligo Rovers's defensive record (0.98x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.37. The same calculation in reverse, Sligo Rovers's attack versus St Patrick's Athl.'s defence, projects 1.07 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 60/60 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.4%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.4%), 1-0 (10.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
St Patrick's Athl. Win
43%
2.30
28%
3.59
29%
3.49
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.0%
Home win
0 – 1
9.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.37
St Patrick's Athl. xG
Total xG
2.44
1.07
Sligo Rovers xG
2.30
43%
Home win
3.59
28%
Draw
3.49
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.02
51%
BTTS No
1.98
Clean Sheet
34%
2.90
25%
3.95
Win to Nil
15%
6.68
7%
13.78
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.7 | 9.3 | 5.0 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.0 | 12.8 | 6.8 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.2 | 8.8 | 4.7 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 4.0 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for St Patrick's Athl. vs Sligo Rovers?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are St Patrick's Athl. and Sligo Rovers expected to score?
The model projects 1.37 expected goals for St Patrick's Athl. and 1.07 for Sligo Rovers, a combined total of 2.44.
How confident is the prediction model for St Patrick's Athl. vs Sligo Rovers?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 60 outings, St Patrick's Athl. have picked up 1.63 PPG on a 28W 14D 18L record — W-D-L-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for St Patrick's Athl. is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Sligo Rovers's form line: 25W 17D 18L from 60 games, 1.53 PPG, last five W-D-W-L-W. The sample for Sligo Rovers is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: St Patrick's Athl. on 1.63 PPG, Sligo Rovers on 1.53. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, St Patrick's Athl. have posted 1.83 PPG from 29 outings (16W 5D 8L).
On the road, Sligo Rovers have gone 11W 8D 10L from 29 away games — 1.41 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, St Patrick's Athl. come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
St Patrick's Athl. are averaging 1.48 goals scored and 1.07 conceded per game recently; Sligo Rovers are on 1.27 scored and 0.98 conceded.
Defensively: St Patrick's Athl. have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 60 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
St Patrick's Athl.
Blended
Sligo Rovers
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are St Patrick's Athl. and Sligo Rovers in coming into this match?
St Patrick's Athl. have gone 28W 14D 18L in their last 60 games (1.63 PPG), while Sligo Rovers have gone 25W 17D 18L in their last 60 (1.53 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — St Patrick's Athl. at home or Sligo Rovers away?
St Patrick's Athl.'s home record (1.83 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — St Patrick's Athl. at home: 1.83 PPG; Sligo Rovers away: 1.41 PPG.
Have St Patrick's Athl. or Sligo Rovers been keeping clean sheets recently?
St Patrick's Athl. have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Sligo Rovers in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to May 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. The two were last together as recently as 19 June 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 10 Aug 2025, when St Patrick's Athl. won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
St Patrick's Athl.'s record when hosting Sligo Rovers specifically: 5W 0D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
7
St Patrick's Athl.
1
Draws
2
Sligo Rovers
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between St Patrick's Athl. and Sligo Rovers?
From 10 meetings on record, St Patrick's Athl. have won 7, Sligo Rovers have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did St Patrick's Athl. and Sligo Rovers last play each other?
They last met on 19 June 2026, when St Patrick's Athl. 2-0 Sligo Rovers.
Who has won more matches between St Patrick's Athl. and Sligo Rovers?
St Patrick's Athl. have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
St Patrick's Athl. are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 45% of the time.
Sligo Rovers see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — St Patrick's Athl. 45%, Sligo Rovers 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 55% (St Patrick's Athl.) and 45% (Sligo Rovers).
On the defensive side: St Patrick's Athl. keep a clean sheet in 41% of their matches; Sligo Rovers in 34%; Sligo Rovers in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = St Patrick's Athl. home games / Sligo Rovers away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when St Patrick's Athl. play Sligo Rovers?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 45% of St Patrick's Athl.'s recent matches and 48% of Sligo Rovers's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is St Patrick's Athl. vs Sligo Rovers usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 55% of St Patrick's Athl.'s recent games and 45% of Sligo Rovers's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do St Patrick's Athl. and Sligo Rovers tend to score early?
St Patrick's Athl. have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, Sligo Rovers in 59% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as St Patrick's Athl. edge out Sligo Rovers 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
St Patrick's Athl. beat Sligo Rovers 1-0 at Richmond Park, Regular Season - 27, in the Premier Division. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting St Patrick's Athl. 1.37 xG and Sligo Rovers 1.07 xG, a combined 2.44. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Sligo Rovers landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of St Patrick's Athl. attack 1.08 / defence 1.04 against Sligo Rovers attack 0.97 / defence 0.98, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it St Patrick's Athl. 43% | Draw 28% | Sligo Rovers 29%, with St Patrick's Athl. to win its most likely call at 43%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 70% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (St Patrick's Athl. 50%, Sligo Rovers 42%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
St Patrick's Athl.'s trading profile (60 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and duly kept one.
Sligo Rovers's trading profile (60 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — St Patrick's Athl. 1.63 PPG, Sligo Rovers 1.53 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the St Patrick's Athl. win broke the near-deadlock. St Patrick's Athl. (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.03 average — tighter than their form line. Sligo Rovers (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.10 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.