St Patrick's Athl. 2-1 Finn Harps – Result & Analysis

Poisson model favours St Patrick's Athl. (63%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as St Patrick's Athl. face Finn Harps.

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Analysis

Finn Harps make the trip to Richmond Park to face St Patrick's Athl. in Premier Division, Regular Season - 29. The match kicks off on Friday 2 September 2022 at 19:45 UTC.

Form & Momentum

St Patrick's Athl. have collected 2.00 PPG across 10 Premier Division outings this season: 6W 2D 2L. Last five: W D W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for St Patrick's Athl., so this record blends games from this season and last.

St Patrick's Athl.'s home record at Richmond Park: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Premier Division appearances (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Richmond Park.

Finn Harps (all games): 2W 2D 6L across 10 Premier Division outings this term — 0.80 points per game. Last five: L L W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Finn Harps, so this record blends games from this season and last.

On the road, Finn Harps have gone 1W 2D 7L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

The form ledger tips toward St Patrick's Athl.. A 1.20 PPG lead over Finn Harps (2.00 vs 0.80) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.

H2H History

The head-to-head record favours St Patrick's Athl., who have won 4 of the last 7 meetings against Finn Harps — a 2D 1W return for the visitors.

These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.3 per game across 7 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 24 Jun 2022, ended 2–2 with a draw.

From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both St Patrick's Athl. and goals. The home side's 4 wins from 7 meetings, combined with an average of 3.3 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.

Trading

St Patrick's Athl. half-time and goal-timing data (63 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games).

Finn Harps half-time and goal-timing data (63 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 74% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — St Patrick's Athl. 51% versus Finn Harps 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (St Patrick's Athl. 51% | Finn Harps 62%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects St Patrick's Athl. 2.01 xG and Finn Harps 0.91 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: St Patrick's Athl. attack 1.015 / defence 0.962 | Finn Harps attack 0.899 / defence 1.481. League average goals — home 1.336 / away 1.046. Finn Harps bring a strong defensive rating of 1.481 — this is suppressing St Patrick's Athl.'s projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 63 St Patrick's Athl. games / 63 Finn Harps games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: St Patrick's Athl. 63% | Draw 21% | Finn Harps 16%. Fair-value odds: St Patrick's Athl. 1.59 | Draw 4.76 | Finn Harps 6.25. The model has a clear lean to St Patrick's Athl. (63%) — a 47pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.91. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.91 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is St Patrick's Athl. at 63% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

The Poisson model projects 2.91 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 56% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.3 goals per meeting.

Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: St Patrick's Athl. 40% | Finn Harps 60%.

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