St Patrick's Athl. 1-0 Dundalk – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates St Patrick's Athl. at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this St Patrick's Athl. vs Dundalk fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Premier Division encounter, Regular Season - 32 sees Dundalk travel to Richmond Park to take on St Patrick's Athl.. The game is scheduled for Monday 25 October 2021, 19:45 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Premier Division games this season, St Patrick's Athl. have gone 5W 0D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.50 PPG return. Last five: W L L W L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
St Patrick's Athl. at Richmond Park this season: 7W 0D 3L from 10 home games — 2.10 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — St Patrick's Athl. are significantly better at Richmond Park than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Dundalk stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Premier Division matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W W D W D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Dundalk away from home this season: 2W 3D 5L from 10 away games — 0.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.50 PPG (St Patrick's Athl.) versus 1.20 (Dundalk). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
In-Play Data
St Patrick's Athl. trading profile (30 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 69% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Dundalk trading profile (30 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — St Patrick's Athl. 57% and Dundalk 70% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (St Patrick's Athl. 47% | Dundalk 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects St Patrick's Athl. 1.50 xG and Dundalk 0.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: St Patrick's Athl. attack 1.094 / defence 1.062 | Dundalk attack 0.806 / defence 1.224. League average goals — home 1.122 / away 1.139. Dundalk bring a strong defensive rating of 1.224 — this is suppressing St Patrick's Athl.'s projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 30 St Patrick's Athl. games / 31 Dundalk games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: St Patrick's Athl. 49% | Draw 26% | Dundalk 25%. Fair-value odds: St Patrick's Athl. 2.04 | Draw 3.85 | Dundalk 4.00. St Patrick's Athl. hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.48. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.48 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates St Patrick's Athl. as the most likely outcome at 49% — moderate model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on St Patrick's Athl. offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.48 combined xG gives a 45% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 48% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: St Patrick's Athl. 50% | Dundalk 60%.
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🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: St Patrick's Athl. vs Dundalk | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 32 | Venue: Richmond Park • Kick-off: Monday 25 Oct 2021, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: St Patrick's Athl. 49% | Draw 26% | Dundalk 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 48% | xG St Patrick's Athl. 1.50 / Dundalk 0.98 • Poisson strength factors: St Patrick's Athl. attack 1.094 / def 1.062 | Dundalk attack 0.806 / def 1.224 | league avg home 1.122 / away 1.139 • Poisson stance: St Patrick's Athl. (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.50
St Patrick's Athl. xG
Expected Goals
0.98
Dundalk xG
48%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does St Patrick's Athl. vs Dundalk kick off?
St Patrick's Athl. vs Dundalk kicked off at 19:45 on Monday 25 October 2021 at Richmond Park.
What was the final score in St Patrick's Athl. vs Dundalk?
St Patrick's Athl. 1 - 0 Dundalk.
Where is St Patrick's Athl. vs Dundalk being played?
The match is being played at Richmond Park.
What competition is St Patrick's Athl. vs Dundalk part of?
St Patrick's Athl. vs Dundalk is a Regular Season - 32 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win St Patrick's Athl. vs Dundalk?
Our statistical model gives St Patrick's Athl. a 49% chance of winning, Dundalk a 25% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making St Patrick's Athl. the favourite.
Will both teams score in St Patrick's Athl. vs Dundalk?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both St Patrick's Athl. and Dundalk will score (BTTS).
Will St Patrick's Athl. vs Dundalk have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between St Patrick's Athl. and Dundalk?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are St Patrick's Athl. and Dundalk in?
St Patrick's Athl. (all comps): 5W-0D-5L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-L-W-L. Dundalk (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates St Patrick's Athl.'s attack at 1.09x the league average against Dundalk's defence at 1.22x — combine the two and it projects 1.50 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Dundalk's attack versus St Patrick's Athl.'s defence, projects 0.98 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 30/31 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (11.0%), 0-0 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
St Patrick's Athl. Win
49%
2.02
26%
3.85
25%
4.07
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
2 – 0
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.50
St Patrick's Athl. xG
Total xG
2.48
0.98
Dundalk xG
2.02
49%
Home win
3.85
26%
Draw
4.07
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.06
52%
BTTS No
1.94
Clean Sheet
38%
2.65
22%
4.50
Win to Nil
19%
5.36
5%
18.32
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.4 | 8.2 | 4.0 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.6 | 12.3 | 6.0 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.5 | 9.2 | 4.5 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.7 | 4.6 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.8 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for St Patrick's Athl. vs Dundalk?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are St Patrick's Athl. and Dundalk expected to score?
The model projects 1.50 expected goals for St Patrick's Athl. and 0.98 for Dundalk, a combined total of 2.48.
How confident is the prediction model for St Patrick's Athl. vs Dundalk?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
St Patrick's Athl.'s recent record stands at 16W 5D 9L from 30 games, a 1.77 PPG return, with W-L-L-W-L in the last five.
Dundalk, meanwhile, have gone 10W 8D 12L across 30 games — 1.27 PPG, with W-W-D-W-D in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours St Patrick's Athl. by 0.50 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Dundalk heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, St Patrick's Athl. have managed 11W 0D 3L from 14 games — 2.36 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.77 PPG overall — St Patrick's Athl. are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Dundalk's away record stands at 3W 6D 5L across 14 trips, a 1.07 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, St Patrick's Athl. come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
St Patrick's Athl. are averaging 1.57 goals scored and 1.13 conceded per game recently; Dundalk are on 1.27 scored and 1.40 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Dundalk in 70%.
Last 30 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
St Patrick's Athl.
Current Season
Dundalk
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are St Patrick's Athl. and Dundalk in coming into this match?
St Patrick's Athl. have gone 16W 5D 9L in their last 30 games (1.77 PPG), while Dundalk have gone 10W 8D 12L in their last 30 (1.27 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — St Patrick's Athl. at home or Dundalk away?
St Patrick's Athl.'s home record (2.36 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — St Patrick's Athl. at home: 2.36 PPG; Dundalk away: 1.07 PPG.
Have St Patrick's Athl. or Dundalk been keeping clean sheets recently?
St Patrick's Athl. have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Dundalk in 17%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between St Patrick's Athl. and Dundalk runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to May 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. The two were last together as recently as 24 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 27 Feb 2026, when St Patrick's Athl. won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
St Patrick's Athl.'s record when hosting Dundalk specifically: 4W 1D 1L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
St Patrick's Athl.
3
Draws
2
Dundalk
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between St Patrick's Athl. and Dundalk?
From 10 meetings on record, St Patrick's Athl. have won 5, Dundalk have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did St Patrick's Athl. and Dundalk last play each other?
They last met on 24 July 2026, when St Patrick's Athl. 1-1 Dundalk.
Who has won more matches between St Patrick's Athl. and Dundalk?
St Patrick's Athl. have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
St Patrick's Athl. see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time.
Dundalk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 21% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — St Patrick's Athl. 43%, Dundalk 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (St Patrick's Athl.) and 43% (Dundalk).
On the defensive side: St Patrick's Athl. keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = St Patrick's Athl. home games / Dundalk away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when St Patrick's Athl. play Dundalk?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of St Patrick's Athl.'s recent matches and 64% of Dundalk's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is St Patrick's Athl. vs Dundalk usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of St Patrick's Athl.'s recent games and 43% of Dundalk's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do St Patrick's Athl. and Dundalk tend to score early?
St Patrick's Athl. have had a goal before half-time in 57% of their recent matches, Dundalk in 86% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as St Patrick's Athl. edge out Dundalk 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
St Patrick's Athl. beat Dundalk 1-0 at Richmond Park, Regular Season - 32, in the Premier Division. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting St Patrick's Athl. 1.50 xG and Dundalk 0.98 xG, a combined 2.48. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Dundalk landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of St Patrick's Athl. attack 1.09 / defence 1.06 against Dundalk attack 0.81 / defence 1.22, drawn from 30/31 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it St Patrick's Athl. 49% | Draw 26% | Dundalk 25%, with St Patrick's Athl. to win its most likely call at 49%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 71% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (St Patrick's Athl. 47%, Dundalk 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
St Patrick's Athl.'s trading profile (30 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one.
Dundalk's trading profile (30 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, St Patrick's Athl. arrived the stronger side — 1.77 PPG against 1.27. Form held, and they took the win. Dundalk (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.21 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.