St Patrick's Athl. vs Bohemians – Pre-Match Analysis

Poisson model rates St Patrick's Athl. at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this St Patrick's Athl. vs Bohemians fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Match Analysis

St Patrick's Athl. host Bohemians at Richmond Park in Premier Division, Regular Season - 36. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 30 October 2026 at 19:45 UTC.

Form Analysis

Looking at all fixtures this season, St Patrick's Athl. stand at 5W 3D 2L from 10 Premier Division matches — 1.80 PPG. Last five: D D W W L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.

In front of their own supporters this season, St Patrick's Athl. have posted 5W 2D 3L at Richmond Park — 1.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game.

Bohemians — All Games: 6W 1D 3L from 10 Premier Division fixtures this season — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W D L W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

Bohemians's away record: 5W 1D 4L from 10 road trips in Premier Division this season (1.60 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

There is minimal separation in the form figures — St Patrick's Athl. at 1.80 PPG versus Bohemians's 1.90. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.

H2H Record

There is little to separate the sides historically. From 10 previous meetings, St Patrick's Athl. have won 3, Bohemians 2, with 5 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.

The 10 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 26 Jun 2026, ended 0–2 with Bohemians winning.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

In-Play Data

St Patrick's Athl. trading profile (65 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time; they fail to score in 37% of games.

Bohemians trading profile (65 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — St Patrick's Athl. 37% versus Bohemians 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (St Patrick's Athl. 37% | Bohemians 52%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects St Patrick's Athl. 1.49 xG and Bohemians 1.23 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: St Patrick's Athl. attack 1.000 / defence 0.781 | Bohemians attack 1.209 / defence 1.008. League average goals — home 1.477 / away 1.306. Bohemians have an above-average attack strength of 1.209 — the away xG of 1.23 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. St Patrick's Athl.'s defence rating of 0.781 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 65 St Patrick's Athl. games / 65 Bohemians games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: St Patrick's Athl. 40% | Draw 33% | Bohemians 28%. Fair-value odds: St Patrick's Athl. 2.50 | Draw 3.03 | Bohemians 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.72. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.72 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates St Patrick's Athl. as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on St Patrick's Athl. offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

Poisson projects 2.72 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 51% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 59%. Form rates corroborate: St Patrick's Athl. 40% | Bohemians 70% BTTS from recent games.

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