Sligo Rovers 1-1 St Patrick's Athl. – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates St Patrick's Athl. at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sligo Rovers vs St Patrick's Athl. fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Premier Division encounter, Regular Season - 15 sees St Patrick's Athl. travel to The Showgrounds to take on Sligo Rovers. The game is scheduled for Saturday 14 May 2022, 19:45 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Premier Division games this season, Sligo Rovers have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: W W W L D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
At home at The Showgrounds, Sligo Rovers have gone 5W 2D 3L this season (10 games, 1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Sligo Rovers are significantly better at The Showgrounds than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, St Patrick's Athl. stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Premier Division matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W D L D D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
St Patrick's Athl. away from home this season: 3W 2D 5L from 10 away games — 1.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Sligo Rovers 1.20 PPG, St Patrick's Athl. 1.20 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
In-Play Profile
Sligo Rovers in-play tendencies (36 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 28% of games (home games).
St Patrick's Athl. in-play tendencies (36 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sligo Rovers 42% versus St Patrick's Athl. 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sligo Rovers 31% | St Patrick's Athl. 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sligo Rovers 0.85 xG and St Patrick's Athl. 1.38 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sligo Rovers attack 0.965 / defence 1.007 | St Patrick's Athl. attack 1.134 / defence 0.686. League average goals — home 1.279 / away 1.210. St Patrick's Athl.'s defence strength of 0.686 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 51 Sligo Rovers games / 51 St Patrick's Athl. games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sligo Rovers 23% | Draw 28% | St Patrick's Athl. 49%. Fair-value odds: Sligo Rovers 4.35 | Draw 3.57 | St Patrick's Athl. 2.04. St Patrick's Athl. hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.23. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.23 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates St Patrick's Athl. as the most likely outcome at 49% — moderate model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on St Patrick's Athl. offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.23 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 38% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 43%. Form rates are neutral: Sligo Rovers 40% | St Patrick's Athl. 60%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sligo Rovers vs St Patrick's Athl. | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: The Showgrounds • Kick-off: Saturday 14 May 2022, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sligo Rovers 23% | Draw 28% | St Patrick's Athl. 49% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 43% | xG Sligo Rovers 0.85 / St Patrick's Athl. 1.38 • Poisson strength factors: Sligo Rovers attack 0.965 / def 1.007 | St Patrick's Athl. attack 1.134 / def 0.686 | league avg home 1.279 / away 1.210 • Poisson stance: St Patrick's Athl. (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.85
Sligo Rovers xG
Expected Goals
1.38
St Patrick's Athl. xG
43%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sligo Rovers vs St Patrick's Athl. kick off?
Sligo Rovers vs St Patrick's Athl. kicked off at 19:45 on Saturday 14 May 2022 at The Showgrounds.
What was the final score in Sligo Rovers vs St Patrick's Athl.?
Sligo Rovers 1 - 1 St Patrick's Athl..
Where is Sligo Rovers vs St Patrick's Athl. being played?
The match is being played at The Showgrounds.
What competition is Sligo Rovers vs St Patrick's Athl. part of?
Sligo Rovers vs St Patrick's Athl. is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Sligo Rovers vs St Patrick's Athl.?
Our statistical model gives Sligo Rovers a 23% chance of winning, St Patrick's Athl. a 49% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making St Patrick's Athl. the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sligo Rovers vs St Patrick's Athl.?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Sligo Rovers and St Patrick's Athl. will score (BTTS).
Will Sligo Rovers vs St Patrick's Athl. have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sligo Rovers and St Patrick's Athl.?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Sligo Rovers and St Patrick's Athl. in?
Sligo Rovers (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-W-L-D. St Patrick's Athl. (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-D-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Sligo Rovers's attack at 0.96x the league average against St Patrick's Athl.'s defence at 0.69x — combine the two and it projects 0.85 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, St Patrick's Athl.'s attack versus Sligo Rovers's defence, projects 1.38 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 51/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (13.3%), 0-0 (12.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
St Patrick's Athl. Win
23%
4.35
28%
3.63
49%
2.02
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.9%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
0 – 0
10.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.85
Sligo Rovers xG
Total xG
2.23
1.38
St Patrick's Athl. xG
4.35
23%
Home win
3.63
28%
Draw
2.02
49%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.34
57%
BTTS No
1.75
Clean Sheet
25%
3.98
43%
2.33
Win to Nil
6%
17.30
21%
4.72
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.8 | 14.9 | 10.3 | 4.7 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 9.1 | 12.6 | 8.7 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 3.9 | 5.3 | 3.7 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sligo Rovers vs St Patrick's Athl.?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Sligo Rovers and St Patrick's Athl. expected to score?
The model projects 0.85 expected goals for Sligo Rovers and 1.38 for St Patrick's Athl., a combined total of 2.23.
How confident is the prediction model for Sligo Rovers vs St Patrick's Athl.?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Sligo Rovers come into this having played 36 games, going 16W 9D 11L for 1.58 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-L-D.
On the other side, St Patrick's Athl. sit at 1.72 PPG from 36 outings (18W 8D 10L), a run that reads W-D-L-D-D across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Sligo Rovers on 1.58 PPG, St Patrick's Athl. on 1.72. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Sligo Rovers's home form reads 8W 5D 5L across 18 games on their own ground, a 1.61 PPG return.
Away from home, St Patrick's Athl. have taken 1.33 points per game from 18 outings (6W 6D 6L).
The Goals Picture
Sligo Rovers are averaging 1.19 goals scored and 0.89 conceded per game recently; St Patrick's Athl. are on 1.56 scored and 1.17 conceded.
Defensively: Sligo Rovers have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 36 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sligo Rovers
Current Season
St Patrick's Athl.
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sligo Rovers and St Patrick's Athl. in coming into this match?
Sligo Rovers have gone 16W 9D 11L in their last 36 games (1.58 PPG), while St Patrick's Athl. have gone 18W 8D 10L in their last 36 (1.72 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sligo Rovers at home or St Patrick's Athl. away?
Sligo Rovers's home record (1.61 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sligo Rovers at home: 1.61 PPG; St Patrick's Athl. away: 1.33 PPG.
Have Sligo Rovers or St Patrick's Athl. been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sligo Rovers have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, St Patrick's Athl. in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Sligo Rovers and St Patrick's Athl. runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to May 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. The two were last together as recently as 19 June 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 10 Aug 2025, when St Patrick's Athl. won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Sligo Rovers's record when hosting St Patrick's Athl. specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Sligo Rovers
1
Draws
7
St Patrick's Athl.
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sligo Rovers and St Patrick's Athl.?
From 10 meetings on record, Sligo Rovers have won 2, St Patrick's Athl. have won 7, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Sligo Rovers and St Patrick's Athl. last play each other?
They last met on 19 June 2026, when St Patrick's Athl. 2-0 Sligo Rovers.
Who has won more matches between Sligo Rovers and St Patrick's Athl.?
St Patrick's Athl. have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Sligo Rovers see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
St Patrick's Athl. see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sligo Rovers 44%, St Patrick's Athl. 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 28% (Sligo Rovers) and 44% (St Patrick's Athl.).
On the defensive side: Sligo Rovers keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sligo Rovers home games / St Patrick's Athl. away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sligo Rovers play St Patrick's Athl.?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 44% of Sligo Rovers's games and 67% of St Patrick's Athl.'s, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Sligo Rovers vs St Patrick's Athl. usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 28% of Sligo Rovers's recent games and 44% of St Patrick's Athl.'s, pointing to a tighter contest.
Sligo Rovers and St Patrick's Athl. share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sligo Rovers and St Patrick's Athl. finished level at 1-1 at The Showgrounds, Regular Season - 15, in the Premier Division. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sligo Rovers 0.85 xG and St Patrick's Athl. 1.38 xG, a combined 2.23. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sligo Rovers attack 0.96 / defence 1.01 against St Patrick's Athl. attack 1.13 / defence 0.69, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sligo Rovers 23% | Draw 28% | St Patrick's Athl. 49%, with St Patrick's Athl. to win its most likely call at 49%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sligo Rovers 31%, St Patrick's Athl. 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sligo Rovers's trading profile (36 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
St Patrick's Athl.'s trading profile (36 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sligo Rovers 1.58 PPG, St Patrick's Athl. 1.72 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.