Sligo Rovers 0-1 Shelbourne – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sligo Rovers at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sligo Rovers vs Shelbourne fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
The Showgrounds plays host to Sligo Rovers versus Shelbourne in Premier Division, Regular Season - 8. Kick-off: Friday 1 April 2022 at 19:45 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Sligo Rovers have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Premier Division outings this season: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: W W W L D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
At home at The Showgrounds, Sligo Rovers have gone 5W 2D 3L this season (10 games, 1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Sligo Rovers are significantly better at The Showgrounds than their overall form suggests.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sligo Rovers 1.12 xG and Shelbourne 0.77 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sligo Rovers attack 1.059 / defence 0.867 | Shelbourne attack 0.872 / defence 0.864. League average goals — home 1.226 / away 1.016. Data: 42 Sligo Rovers games / 7 Shelbourne games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sligo Rovers 41% | Draw 36% | Shelbourne 23%. Fair-value odds: Sligo Rovers 2.44 | Draw 2.78 | Shelbourne 4.35. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 36% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 29% | BTTS probability 38% | Total xG 1.89. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 71% probability — total xG of 1.89 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 38% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Sligo Rovers as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 36% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sligo Rovers if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 1.89 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 29% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sligo Rovers vs Shelbourne | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: The Showgrounds • Kick-off: Friday 1 Apr 2022, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sligo Rovers 41% | Draw 36% | Shelbourne 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 29% | BTTS 38% | xG Sligo Rovers 1.12 / Shelbourne 0.77 • Poisson strength factors: Sligo Rovers attack 1.059 / def 0.867 | Shelbourne attack 0.872 / def 0.864 | league avg home 1.226 / away 1.016 • Poisson stance: Sligo Rovers (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.12
Sligo Rovers xG
Expected Goals
0.77
Shelbourne xG
38%
BTTS
59%
Over 1.5
29%
Over 2.5
12%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sligo Rovers vs Shelbourne kick off?
Sligo Rovers vs Shelbourne kicked off at 19:45 on Friday 1 April 2022 at The Showgrounds.
What was the final score in Sligo Rovers vs Shelbourne?
Sligo Rovers 0 - 1 Shelbourne.
Where is Sligo Rovers vs Shelbourne being played?
The match is being played at The Showgrounds.
What competition is Sligo Rovers vs Shelbourne part of?
Sligo Rovers vs Shelbourne is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Sligo Rovers vs Shelbourne?
Our statistical model gives Sligo Rovers a 41% chance of winning, Shelbourne a 23% chance, and a 36% chance of a draw — making Sligo Rovers the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sligo Rovers vs Shelbourne?
Our model estimates a 38% probability that both Sligo Rovers and Shelbourne will score (BTTS).
Will Sligo Rovers vs Shelbourne have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 29%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sligo Rovers and Shelbourne?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Sligo Rovers and Shelbourne in?
Sligo Rovers (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-W-L-D. Sligo Rovers home split: 1.70 PPG from 10 | GF 1.40 / GA 0.70 | CS 4.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Sligo Rovers's attacking strength (1.06x league average) is weighed against Shelbourne's defensive record (0.86x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.12. Flip it around — Shelbourne's attack (0.87x) against Sligo Rovers's defence (0.87x) — and the away total comes out at 0.77.
These ratings are built from 42/7 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 16.8%. Close behind: 1-0 (15.3%), 1-1 (14.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 47% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sligo Rovers Win
41%
2.41
36%
2.78
23%
4.42
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
17.0%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
15.1%
Draw
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.12
Sligo Rovers xG
Total xG
1.89
0.77
Shelbourne xG
2.41
41%
Home win
2.78
36%
Draw
4.42
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
56%
Over 1.5
1.79
44%
Under 1.5
2.27
29%
Over 2.5
3.45
71%
Under 2.5
1.41
12%
Over 3.5
8.33
88%
Under 3.5
1.14
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
38%
BTTS Yes
2.60
62%
BTTS No
1.63
Clean Sheet
46%
2.16
33%
3.07
Win to Nil
19%
5.20
7%
13.54
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.1 | 11.6 | 4.5 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 17.0 | 13.0 | 5.0 | 1.3 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 9.5 | 7.3 | 2.8 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 3.6 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sligo Rovers vs Shelbourne?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.8%.
How many goals are Sligo Rovers and Shelbourne expected to score?
The model projects 1.12 expected goals for Sligo Rovers and 0.77 for Shelbourne, a combined total of 1.89.
How confident is the prediction model for Sligo Rovers vs Shelbourne?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sligo Rovers
Pre-Season
Shelbourne
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to May 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. The two were last together as recently as 27 June 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sligo Rovers have gone 1W 1D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Shelbourne — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Sligo Rovers
3
Draws
5
Shelbourne
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sligo Rovers and Shelbourne?
From 10 meetings on record, Sligo Rovers have won 2, Shelbourne have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Sligo Rovers and Shelbourne last play each other?
They last met on 27 June 2026, when Sligo Rovers 2-2 Shelbourne.
Who has won more matches between Sligo Rovers and Shelbourne?
Shelbourne have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sligo Rovers home games / Shelbourne away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Shock result as Shelbourne defy the odds to beat Sligo Rovers 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Shelbourne beat Sligo Rovers 0-1 at The Showgrounds, Regular Season - 8, in the Premier Division. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sligo Rovers 1.12 xG and Shelbourne 0.77 xG, a combined 1.89. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Sligo Rovers fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sligo Rovers attack 1.06 / defence 0.87 against Shelbourne attack 0.87 / defence 0.86, drawn from 42/7 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sligo Rovers 41% | Draw 36% | Shelbourne 23%, with Sligo Rovers to win its most likely call at 41%. Instead the game produced a Shelbourne win, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 29%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 59% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.