Shelbourne 1-0 UCD – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Shelbourne at 63% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Shelbourne face UCD.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Shelbourne and UCD meet at Tolka Park in Premier Division (matchday 14). This fixture gets under way on Friday 5 May 2023 at 20:45 UK time.
Form
Shelbourne (all games): 1W 6D 3L across their last 10 — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L D D W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Shelbourne's home record over their last 10 home games: 3W 5D 2L (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
UCD have collected 1.30 PPG across their last 10 games: 4W 1D 5L. Last five: W D W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).
On the road, UCD have gone 2W 2D 6L in their last 10 away fixtures (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.90 PPG for Shelbourne against 1.30 for UCD. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 5 H2H matches in our data, Shelbourne edge it 2 wins to 0, with 3 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage.
Goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.2 per game across the 5 H2H matches we hold, giving Under 2.5 a clear head-to-head base rate. The most recent of those, on 7 Apr 2023, ended Shelbourne 0–0 UCD — a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.2 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Shelbourne half-time and goal-timing data (last 36 games, 17 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 65% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; of the 7 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
UCD half-time and goal-timing data (last 36 games, 17 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 82% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; of the 19 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 26%; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); they fail to score in 47% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Shelbourne 47% versus UCD 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Shelbourne 42% | UCD 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Shelbourne 1.71 xG and UCD 0.65 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shelbourne attack 0.903 / defence 0.763 | UCD attack 0.689 / defence 1.420. League average goals — home 1.335 / away 1.237. UCD's defence rating of 1.420 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Shelbourne's projected output up. UCD's attack rating of 0.689 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.65. Shelbourne have a tight defence (rating 0.763), which is pulling UCD's projected output down. Data: built from Shelbourne's last 49 games and UCD's last 49.
Result probabilities: Shelbourne 63% | Draw 23% | UCD 14%. Fair-value odds: Shelbourne 1.59 | Draw 4.29 | UCD 7.30. The model has a clear lean to Shelbourne (63%) — a 40pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS Yes probability 39% | Total xG 2.36. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.36 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 61% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Shelbourne at 63% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.36 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 58% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by the H2H data averaging 1.2 goals per game across 5 H2H matches.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 61% on No. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Shelbourne 40% (last 10 home games) | UCD 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Shelbourne vs UCD | Competition: Premier Division, matchday 14 | Venue: Tolka Park • Kick-off: Friday 5 May 2023 at 20:45 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Shelbourne 63% | Draw 23% | UCD 14% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% (Under 58%) | BTTS Yes 39% (No 61%) | xG Shelbourne 1.71 / UCD 0.65 • Poisson strength factors: Shelbourne attack 0.903 / def 0.763 | UCD attack 0.689 / def 1.420 | league avg home 1.335 / away 1.237 • Poisson stance: Shelbourne (63%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.71
Shelbourne xG
Expected Goals
0.65
UCD xG
39%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Shelbourne vs UCD FAQs
What time does Shelbourne vs UCD kick off?
Shelbourne vs UCD kicked off at 20:45 UK time on Friday 5 May 2023 at Tolka Park.
What was the final score in Shelbourne vs UCD?
Shelbourne 1 - 0 UCD.
Where is Shelbourne vs UCD being played?
The match is being played at Tolka Park.
What competition is Shelbourne vs UCD part of?
Shelbourne vs UCD is a Premier Division fixture (matchday 14) (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Shelbourne vs UCD?
Our statistical model gives Shelbourne a 63% chance of winning, UCD a 14% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Shelbourne the favourite.
Will both teams score in Shelbourne vs UCD?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Shelbourne and UCD will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (61%).
Will Shelbourne vs UCD have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (58%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Shelbourne's attack at 0.90x the league average against UCD's defence at 1.42x — combine the two and it projects 1.71 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — UCD's attack (0.69x) against Shelbourne's defence (0.76x) — and the away total comes out at 0.65.
These ratings are built from Shelbourne's last 49 games and UCD's last 49 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-0 carries the highest individual probability at 14.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-0 (13.8%), 1-1 (11.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Shelbourne Win
63%
1.59
23%
4.29
14%
7.30
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.1%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
13.8%
Home win
1 – 1
10.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.71
Shelbourne xG
Total xG
2.36
0.65
UCD xG
1.59
63%
Home win
4.29
23%
Draw
7.30
14%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.55
61%
BTTS No
1.65
Clean Sheet
52%
1.92
18%
5.54
Win to Nil
33%
3.04
2%
40.47
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.4 | 6.1 | 2.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 16.1 | 10.5 | 3.4 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 13.8 | 9.0 | 2.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 7.9 | 5.1 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 3.4 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Shelbourne vs UCD Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Shelbourne vs UCD?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Shelbourne and UCD expected to score?
The model projects 1.71 expected goals for Shelbourne and 0.65 for UCD, a combined total of 2.36.
How confident is the prediction model for Shelbourne vs UCD?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 63%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Shelbourne come into this having played 36 games, going 10W 11D 15L for 1.14 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-D-W-L.
On the other side, UCD sit at 0.81 PPG from 36 outings (7W 8D 21L), a run that reads W-D-W-L-W across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.14 PPG for Shelbourne against 0.81 for UCD. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Shelbourne's home form reads 5W 6D 6L across their last 17 home games, a 1.24 PPG return.
Away from home, UCD have taken 0.71 points per game from their last 17 away games (3W 3D 11L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Shelbourne come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Shelbourne are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 1.36 conceded per game recently; UCD are on 0.81 scored and 1.78 conceded.
Last 36 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Shelbourne
Current Season
UCD
Current Season
Shelbourne (Home) vs UCD (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Shelbourne
Current Season
UCD
Current Season
❓ Shelbourne vs UCD Form FAQs
What form are Shelbourne and UCD in coming into this match?
Shelbourne have gone 10W 11D 15L in their last 36 games (1.14 PPG), while UCD have gone 7W 8D 21L in their last 36 (0.81 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Shelbourne at home or UCD away?
Shelbourne's home record (1.24 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Shelbourne at home: 1.24 PPG; UCD away: 0.71 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 8 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to February 2022 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Premier Division. The most recent in our data was on 27 October 2023, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Shelbourne have won each of the latest 3 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Shelbourne won UCD 0-4 Shelbourne on 7 Jul 2023, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Shelbourne have gone 3W 1D 0L from the 4 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against UCD — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
5
Shelbourne
3
Draws
0
UCD
Recent Meetings
❓ Shelbourne vs UCD H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Shelbourne and UCD?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Shelbourne have won 5, UCD have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Shelbourne and UCD last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 27 October 2023: Shelbourne 3-2 UCD.
Who has won more matches between Shelbourne and UCD?
Shelbourne have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Shelbourne are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
UCD are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Shelbourne 47%, UCD 41% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 41% (Shelbourne) and 47% (UCD).
On the defensive side: Shelbourne have failed to score in 35% of games; UCD in 47%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Shelbourne home games / UCD away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Shelbourne vs UCD Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Shelbourne and UCD matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Shelbourne's recent matches and 41% of UCD's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Shelbourne and UCD matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 41% of Shelbourne's recent games and 47% of UCD's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Shelbourne and UCD matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 65% of Shelbourne's recent matches and 82% of UCD's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Shelbourne edge out UCD 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Shelbourne beat UCD 1-0 at Tolka Park, Regular Season - 14, in the Premier Division. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Shelbourne 1.71 xG and UCD 0.65 xG, a combined 2.36. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shelbourne attack 0.90 / defence 0.76 against UCD attack 0.69 / defence 1.42, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Shelbourne 63% | Draw 23% | UCD 14%, with Shelbourne to win its most likely call at 63%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 68% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Shelbourne 42%, UCD 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Shelbourne's trading profile (36 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not.
UCD's trading profile (36 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 47% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Shelbourne 1.14 PPG, UCD 0.81 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Shelbourne win broke the near-deadlock. Shelbourne (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.29 average — tighter than their form line. UCD (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.82 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.06 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.